French property prices and £;Euro forecasts
Discussion
Seem to be falling just like the UK.
Predictions I have seen are 10% this year ( Standard and Poor)
Seeds are saying 14% in 2009 on top of the 9.9% in 2008.
What do the PH massive think?
I think some Brits thinking of moving back will do so while the Euro is strong, even if that means selling relatively cheaply, and futher damaging the market in some traditional second Home/Ex Pat areas. I have seen a few sellers saying they are just trying to cover their mortgage and are leaving France with a loss.
Is the Euro likel;y to remain strong? I did hear that The £ was expected to pick up later this year?
Is the french market likely to pick up before the Uk market?
As you might sense, I am looking to time a run on the French market.
Predictions I have seen are 10% this year ( Standard and Poor)
Seeds are saying 14% in 2009 on top of the 9.9% in 2008.
What do the PH massive think?
I think some Brits thinking of moving back will do so while the Euro is strong, even if that means selling relatively cheaply, and futher damaging the market in some traditional second Home/Ex Pat areas. I have seen a few sellers saying they are just trying to cover their mortgage and are leaving France with a loss.
Is the Euro likel;y to remain strong? I did hear that The £ was expected to pick up later this year?
Is the french market likely to pick up before the Uk market?
As you might sense, I am looking to time a run on the French market.
Edited by Brown and Boris on Wednesday 18th February 20:01
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&am...
and
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily...
but both short term stories.
and
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily...
but both short term stories.
France should be more resilient than the UK in terms of house prices. But it will be regional. I'd expect the prices in Provence and Ile de France to see some larger losses - prices are much higher there.
Major towns and cities have prices raised above the local surrounding areas, so might see small losses/stagnation.
Out in the country, prices are already low. There is a glut of properties, so there isn't much margin to lose.
Added to that is the fact that lending laws are far stricter in France. We took out a mortgage 1.5 years ago, and it took a lot more work and required far more evidence of our financial status. You need a large deposit also.
Prices may correct a little, but I wouldn't expect a large crash in most areas.
Major towns and cities have prices raised above the local surrounding areas, so might see small losses/stagnation.
Out in the country, prices are already low. There is a glut of properties, so there isn't much margin to lose.
Added to that is the fact that lending laws are far stricter in France. We took out a mortgage 1.5 years ago, and it took a lot more work and required far more evidence of our financial status. You need a large deposit also.
Prices may correct a little, but I wouldn't expect a large crash in most areas.
Puggit said:
France should be more resilient than the UK in terms of house prices. But it will be regional. I'd expect the prices in Provence and Ile de France to see some larger losses - prices are much higher there.
Major towns and cities have prices raised above the local surrounding areas, so might see small losses/stagnation.
Out in the country, prices are already low. There is a glut of properties, so there isn't much margin to lose.
Added to that is the fact that lending laws are far stricter in France. We took out a mortgage 1.5 years ago, and it took a lot more work and required far more evidence of our financial status. You need a large deposit also.
Prices may correct a little, but I wouldn't expect a large crash in most areas.
Spot on.Major towns and cities have prices raised above the local surrounding areas, so might see small losses/stagnation.
Out in the country, prices are already low. There is a glut of properties, so there isn't much margin to lose.
Added to that is the fact that lending laws are far stricter in France. We took out a mortgage 1.5 years ago, and it took a lot more work and required far more evidence of our financial status. You need a large deposit also.
Prices may correct a little, but I wouldn't expect a large crash in most areas.
Remove the Côte d'Azur and Isle de France from the equation and the picture is quite different. Where there have been changes is in the areas surrounding cities. When petrol hit its peak, the market for properties more than 40km out of town just collapsed. That market has not recovered yet.
If the manufacturing and trading economy dont get much worse I would think another 10% drop this year is likely. Recession has only just been mentioned here so we are probably 12-18 months behind the UK in terms of fallout. Just that as mentioned above, the domestic lenders dont have anything like the exposure that the UK lenders have.
Puggit said:
France should be more resilient than the UK in terms of house prices. But it will be regional. I'd expect the prices in Provence and Ile de France to see some larger losses - prices are much higher there.
Major towns and cities have prices raised above the local surrounding areas, so might see small losses/stagnation.
Out in the country, prices are already low. There is a glut of properties, so there isn't much margin to lose.
Added to that is the fact that lending laws are far stricter in France. We took out a mortgage 1.5 years ago, and it took a lot more work and required far more evidence of our financial status. You need a large deposit also.
Prices may correct a little, but I wouldn't expect a large crash in most areas.
I had the complete opposite experience when I was buying a house in France. In fact I wasn't even working at the time, not that the bank knew that. I had over a 100% mortgage and it was all pretty simple. The only issue being that if you need over €150,000 you will have to have a medical examination done by a French doctor. The mortgage I have is un-thinkable by UK standards. It is fixed for the duration at 3.5%. After only 2 years €26,000 has already been paid off the original capital (UK mortgages only ever pay off the interest first). Major towns and cities have prices raised above the local surrounding areas, so might see small losses/stagnation.
Out in the country, prices are already low. There is a glut of properties, so there isn't much margin to lose.
Added to that is the fact that lending laws are far stricter in France. We took out a mortgage 1.5 years ago, and it took a lot more work and required far more evidence of our financial status. You need a large deposit also.
Prices may correct a little, but I wouldn't expect a large crash in most areas.
Anyway back to the original topic. France has a long history of having a very stable property market. You won’t see massive gains at the same time the falls are in-line with the gains (nothing to worry about). I cannot speak for the North but I know the south from Perpignon to Biarritz quite well. There are a few major hubs which encapture a 1 hour driving radius (Toulouse and Bordeaux spring to mind), where prices are quite expensive. Within 30mins of the Bay of Biscay is expensive and like wise for the med coast. Other than that there are plenty of fantastic offers to be had. My villa for instance is within walking distance from the beautiful town centre, has 1400m2 land, electric gate etc and cost only €240,000. At the time an equivalent house in the UK would have been £800,000-£2Mil depending on location. I spent 4 months researching this whole area so if this area is somewhere you are thinking about, you can pm me for more info.
As an example, try and find something like this in the UK for under £500,000. For sale in France right now for under £200,000
http://www.aireimmobilier.com/172285/42637557/plus...
5 bedrooms, 1 hour to the coast, 1 hour to Spain, just around the corner from Nogaro race track.
smifffymoto said:
Just get it done,it's only money.
You're probably right on this matter but didn't that mentality get us in the pickle in the first place... "Shall I get the 42" plasma on the never never?" "Just do it, it's only money. You can't take it with you. You may get hit by a bus tomorrow." 
Edited by ShadownINja on Thursday 19th February 11:00
NoelWatson said:
Interesting - but I think it's heavily skewed by Cote d'Azur and Ile de France.Afterall, we paid £130k for 4 double-bed/2 bath house with 2 hectares!
Gassing Station | The Pie & Piston Archive | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff