USA out of recession...
Discussion
US isn't quite out of the woods yet. A lot of the jobs creation data are just "smoke and mirrors". For instance, notice how the White House usually says "...stimulus has created or saved X number of jobs..."
How do you figure that? This is the first time in HISTORY that the US administration is trying to take credit for saving jobs...
I am amazed that the BBC (maybe I shouldn't be) hasn't researched this article more carefully
How do you figure that? This is the first time in HISTORY that the US administration is trying to take credit for saving jobs...
I am amazed that the BBC (maybe I shouldn't be) hasn't researched this article more carefully
Shoot Blair said:
So, that's really great. I take it I should buy dollars, as they are just about to go rocketing too. That will at least take some of the heat off the Euro.
Well done Obama.
Got nothing to do with Obama. Apparently the $787bn stimulus package has only spent around $80bn so far, and they are complaining that the administration just isn't processing the package with any vigour.Well done Obama.
So, if the US has come out of recession, its nothing to do with the stimulus package.
"just read this on the Guido Fawkes blog;
"With No End to Recession, Labour Attack Strategy Misfires
The coordinated attacks this week on George Osborne were pre-planned to coincide with the end of the recession as predicted by consensus economists. Except that the economy did not oblige. On Friday the ONS reported numbers that shocked Gordon Brown, who has long clung to the belief that a rising economy will save him. His curse prevailed.
Unlike in the rest of the recovering industrialised world, UK GDP fell by a shock 0.4 % last quarter, meaning the economy had now contracted for six successive quarters, the longest recession in British recorded history. Labour’s strategic plan, into which Guido understands Alastair Campbell and Peter Mandelson had input, was to use the reported official end of recession to claim victory in the battle against the crisis. On the back of that they would launch a ferocious attack on George Osborne’s response to the crisis.
There was no recovery reported. Op-eds had already been lined up in friendly papers, “lines to take” established, Bad Al Campbell himself lined up a letter in the FT focusing on Osborne’s shadow chancellor / campaign manager roles. Labour produced publicity material (above) and digital animations to be used in online campaigns. Mark Hanson, a backroom adviser on Labour’s online strategy, had placed a pre-written article on LabourList that he failed to revise to reflect the terrible Q3 GDP figures; “The campaign looks at what the real consequences would have been if George Osborne’s misjudgments had been enacted and led to a deeper, longer and more painful recession.”
That quote looks revealingly silly in the light of the figures showing Britain is suffering the deepest, longest and most painful recession ever recorded. Attack dogs Liam Byrne and Alastair Campbell nimbly recalibrated their attack lines. Instead of attacking Osborne as wrong on the recession, he was they claimed wrong on bailing out the banks (Byrne), wrong on political strategy (Campbell). With Gordon proved wrong on the recession by the numbers, with Britain shown to be worst placed of all the G7 nations, with our economy now smaller than Italy’s economy, the whole “Gordon was right on the recession” line is in tatters. Maybe they will try to resurrect it when the economy does finally bottom. Too late for Gordon, who by some accounts took the released figures very badly. At PMQs he stuck to the “I’m right, you are wrong, wrong, wrong” line even when the numbers showed differently.
With the new German government announcing a massive multi-billion growth package of tax cuts to boost the economy it will no longer be credible to paint the Tories as out of touch and isolated. The Tories have a surprise for Gordon, which Guido will spoil, footage of President Obama time and time again saying in recent months that you have to cut taxes to help people in a recession. With the industrialised world’s two biggest economies – Germany and the United States – now implementing growth orientated policies, Gordon’s big government tax, borrow and spend will look out of kilter and isolated. His last hope of a political recovery strategy is now past its sell by date…"
Don't know whether to smile or wince - on the one hand, it's always good to read about Labour's stunning incompetence, but on the other, it's my kid's future they're systematically shredding!
"With No End to Recession, Labour Attack Strategy Misfires
The coordinated attacks this week on George Osborne were pre-planned to coincide with the end of the recession as predicted by consensus economists. Except that the economy did not oblige. On Friday the ONS reported numbers that shocked Gordon Brown, who has long clung to the belief that a rising economy will save him. His curse prevailed.
Unlike in the rest of the recovering industrialised world, UK GDP fell by a shock 0.4 % last quarter, meaning the economy had now contracted for six successive quarters, the longest recession in British recorded history. Labour’s strategic plan, into which Guido understands Alastair Campbell and Peter Mandelson had input, was to use the reported official end of recession to claim victory in the battle against the crisis. On the back of that they would launch a ferocious attack on George Osborne’s response to the crisis.
There was no recovery reported. Op-eds had already been lined up in friendly papers, “lines to take” established, Bad Al Campbell himself lined up a letter in the FT focusing on Osborne’s shadow chancellor / campaign manager roles. Labour produced publicity material (above) and digital animations to be used in online campaigns. Mark Hanson, a backroom adviser on Labour’s online strategy, had placed a pre-written article on LabourList that he failed to revise to reflect the terrible Q3 GDP figures; “The campaign looks at what the real consequences would have been if George Osborne’s misjudgments had been enacted and led to a deeper, longer and more painful recession.”
That quote looks revealingly silly in the light of the figures showing Britain is suffering the deepest, longest and most painful recession ever recorded. Attack dogs Liam Byrne and Alastair Campbell nimbly recalibrated their attack lines. Instead of attacking Osborne as wrong on the recession, he was they claimed wrong on bailing out the banks (Byrne), wrong on political strategy (Campbell). With Gordon proved wrong on the recession by the numbers, with Britain shown to be worst placed of all the G7 nations, with our economy now smaller than Italy’s economy, the whole “Gordon was right on the recession” line is in tatters. Maybe they will try to resurrect it when the economy does finally bottom. Too late for Gordon, who by some accounts took the released figures very badly. At PMQs he stuck to the “I’m right, you are wrong, wrong, wrong” line even when the numbers showed differently.
With the new German government announcing a massive multi-billion growth package of tax cuts to boost the economy it will no longer be credible to paint the Tories as out of touch and isolated. The Tories have a surprise for Gordon, which Guido will spoil, footage of President Obama time and time again saying in recent months that you have to cut taxes to help people in a recession. With the industrialised world’s two biggest economies – Germany and the United States – now implementing growth orientated policies, Gordon’s big government tax, borrow and spend will look out of kilter and isolated. His last hope of a political recovery strategy is now past its sell by date…"
Don't know whether to smile or wince - on the one hand, it's always good to read about Labour's stunning incompetence, but on the other, it's my kid's future they're systematically shredding!
Eric Mc said:
el stovey said:
I thought you needed two quarters of GDP growth to be out of recession?
The Americans define recession in a different way. By our measure, they are still in it.The numbers being thrown out to the unwashed over here are a blatent political attempt to stem the tide of fury with the Congress and shore up the chances for Congressional re-elections next year.
They have nothing to do with reality. The reality is that unemployment is up, salaries are stagnent and growth is minimal (unless your are doing MMGW research, in which case your budget is unlimited)
Next year should be interesting electoral wise on both sides of the pond. I see a late 70's early 80's style change in the future when people decide that they are tired of tax and spend.
el stovey said:
I thought you needed two quarters of GDP growth to be out of recession?
2 quarters of negative growth to be in a recession and 1 quarter of positive growth to be out of it....Eric Mc said:
The Americans define recession in a different way. By our measure, they are still in it.
I thought the US defined it the same way (at least according to Wikipedia), so what is the difference between the US definition and ours?OT: If we show positive growth for the last 3 months of 2009 then show negative growth for the first 3 months of 2010 does that mean we are back in recession in time for the General Election? THis may happen if spending increases prior to Xmas and then people tighten their belts in the new year....
ErnestM said:
Eric Mc said:
el stovey said:
I thought you needed two quarters of GDP growth to be out of recession?
The Americans define recession in a different way. By our measure, they are still in it.The numbers being thrown out to the unwashed over here are a blatent political attempt to stem the tide of fury with the Congress and shore up the chances for Congressional re-elections next year.
They have nothing to do with reality. The reality is that unemployment is up, salaries are stagnent and growth is minimal (unless your are doing MMGW research, in which case your budget is unlimited)
Next year should be interesting electoral wise on both sides of the pond. I see a late 70's early 80's style change in the future when people decide that they are tired of tax and spend.
Well that proves it, with several competitor EU economies out of recession and now the USA, clearly the Clown and Slugbrows have kept Prudence fed on a balanced diet of purely organic produce while tending the economy with great care, making us best placed to weather the Brownturn and emerge from...
jesusbuiltmycar said:
OT: If we show positive growth for the last 3 months of 2009 then show negative growth for the first 3 months of 2010 does that mean we are back in recession in time for the General Election? THis may happen if spending increases prior to Xmas and then people tighten their belts in the new year....
Not quite.Oct-Dec qtr figures will be released around late Jan. If they show 0.0% or better then the UK is technically out of recession.
It then cannot go back into recession until late July when the Apr-Jun qtr figures are released and if they show negative AND if Q1 (Jan-Mar) was negative too.
The last possible date for the election is 7th June.
So almost certainly the UK will not be in recession come election time. Still up $hite creek, but not technically in recession.
anonymousposter said:
jesusbuiltmycar said:
OT: If we show positive growth for the last 3 months of 2009 then show negative growth for the first 3 months of 2010 does that mean we are back in recession in time for the General Election? THis may happen if spending increases prior to Xmas and then people tighten their belts in the new year....
Not quite.Oct-Dec qtr figures will be released around late Jan. If they show 0.0% or better then the UK is technically out of recession.
It then cannot go back into recession until late July when the Apr-Jun qtr figures are released and if they show negative AND if Q1 (Jan-Mar) was negative too.
The last possible date for the election is 7th June.
So almost certainly the UK will not be in recession come election time. Still up $hite creek, but not technically in recession.
anonymousposter said:
jesusbuiltmycar said:
OT: If we show positive growth for the last 3 months of 2009 then show negative growth for the first 3 months of 2010 does that mean we are back in recession in time for the General Election? THis may happen if spending increases prior to Xmas and then people tighten their belts in the new year....
Not quite.Oct-Dec qtr figures will be released around late Jan. If they show 0.0% or better then the UK is technically out of recession.
It then cannot go back into recession until late July when the Apr-Jun qtr figures are released and if they show negative AND if Q1 (Jan-Mar) was negative too.
The last possible date for the election is 7th June.
So almost certainly the UK will not be in recession come election time. Still up $hite creek, but not technically in recession.
However, if the UK is anything like the US, the unwashed don't care (or know) what a technical recession is, they will only care about how fat their paypackets are or if they have a job at election time.... innit?
[/socioeconomicmode]
ErnestM said:
anonymousposter said:
jesusbuiltmycar said:
OT: If we show positive growth for the last 3 months of 2009 then show negative growth for the first 3 months of 2010 does that mean we are back in recession in time for the General Election? THis may happen if spending increases prior to Xmas and then people tighten their belts in the new year....
Not quite.Oct-Dec qtr figures will be released around late Jan. If they show 0.0% or better then the UK is technically out of recession.
It then cannot go back into recession until late July when the Apr-Jun qtr figures are released and if they show negative AND if Q1 (Jan-Mar) was negative too.
The last possible date for the election is 7th June.
So almost certainly the UK will not be in recession come election time. Still up $hite creek, but not technically in recession.
However, if the UK is anything like the US, the unwashed don't care (or know) what a technical recession is, they will only care about how fat their paypackets are or if they have a job at election time.... innit?
[/socioeconomicmode]
It's hardly a real recovery in the US though is it? Massive amounts of government cash injection and a big 'cash for clunkers' scheme. So the 'recovery' is virtually all due to tax dollars. It's a bit like running out of money and then taking another loan out. It all has to be paid for further down the line. The government support was certainly needed but please lets have less of the fireworks and cries of 'it's over' from the press and politicians.
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