Predictions for the outcome of Climategate
Discussion
I thought this might be interesting to address away fro mthe other hot threads.
My prediction.
An announcement will be made that actually the measurement of CO2 in the atmosphere were flawed and the levels have actually gone down and look so have global temps.
Hurrah!!! We're all saved, isn't it a good job we taxed you on CO2 - look how wonderfully well it's all working out! Didn't we do well.
Nothing will change and we'll continue to be taxed back to the stone age.
What do I win?
My prediction.
An announcement will be made that actually the measurement of CO2 in the atmosphere were flawed and the levels have actually gone down and look so have global temps.
Hurrah!!! We're all saved, isn't it a good job we taxed you on CO2 - look how wonderfully well it's all working out! Didn't we do well.
Nothing will change and we'll continue to be taxed back to the stone age.
What do I win?
him_over_there said:
I don't think anything will come of it, outside of the this place / the 'blogosphere' I don't know a single person who if you mentioned climategate would even know what you were talking about.
I hope it isn't the case, but the censorship/bias by mainstream media will make it so.
him_over_there said:
I don't think anything will come of it, outside of the this place / the 'blogosphere' I don't know a single person who if you mentioned climategate would even know what you were talking about.
Notice the ructions in Oz? Its already contributed to a change in leadership. Had a reply from my MP; I asked him whether he would support Lord Lawson's call for a public inquiry - I was careful to make the point that the leak didn't prove anything either way, but that it should be investigated properly. The reply I got from my (Conservative) MP amounted to "I still believe in climate change and anyway energy efficiency is a good thing" - not really an answer to the question.
I think a "tipping point" has been reached where there is so much vested interest in it being correct that whether it is or not doesn't really matter. We are committed to reducing our standard of living and paying for less developed nations to improve theirs.
So my bet is "absolutely nothing".
I think a "tipping point" has been reached where there is so much vested interest in it being correct that whether it is or not doesn't really matter. We are committed to reducing our standard of living and paying for less developed nations to improve theirs.
So my bet is "absolutely nothing".
My cynical prediction is that nothing will happen, everything will get swept under the carpet and then the carpet will get covered with layers of more carpet with other things swept under them.
Apart from.... the actual basis for AGW has massive cracks in it. I can't see how anything the IPCC come up with won't get picked to pieces.
We can't have 2 realities:-
A ruling class one where the media tell us what's right and we are then legislated against accordingly....
The online version, where data and arguments are dissected and the whole situation bought into question....
The above 2 cannot coexist. One has to drown the other. The media/government have the power, but they don't have control.
I think we are seeing positions of power eroded by the interweb. It's an irreversable process and happening in lots of areas. Knowledge is power and distribution of such seems to be no longer exclusive.
We are seeing some very good "brushing it under the carpet" but the bottom line is that it will not go away. It will not reduce in size, it will continue alongside weather of mass destruction like a cancer.
Most of the people I speak to, from students I've taught to people wherever are generally filled with libertarian sentiment. Sadly, the government and their tools seem to be heading in an opposite direction to what we want.
I believe we are seeing 2 things.
Unless the govt sort out the above (which they have to, because everyone knows that it won't get that bad), the end scenarios are all pretty tasteless.
Answering the original question. I despair about what is happening at the moment, but have faith in the theory being killed by this growing, unstoppable cancer. It may take some time, but it will die, for sure.
Apart from.... the actual basis for AGW has massive cracks in it. I can't see how anything the IPCC come up with won't get picked to pieces.
We can't have 2 realities:-
A ruling class one where the media tell us what's right and we are then legislated against accordingly....
The online version, where data and arguments are dissected and the whole situation bought into question....
The above 2 cannot coexist. One has to drown the other. The media/government have the power, but they don't have control.
I think we are seeing positions of power eroded by the interweb. It's an irreversable process and happening in lots of areas. Knowledge is power and distribution of such seems to be no longer exclusive.
We are seeing some very good "brushing it under the carpet" but the bottom line is that it will not go away. It will not reduce in size, it will continue alongside weather of mass destruction like a cancer.
Most of the people I speak to, from students I've taught to people wherever are generally filled with libertarian sentiment. Sadly, the government and their tools seem to be heading in an opposite direction to what we want.
I believe we are seeing 2 things.
- The government are more and more out of touch with the wishes of the people they represent.
- The government are increasingly less able to control the people they represent.
Unless the govt sort out the above (which they have to, because everyone knows that it won't get that bad), the end scenarios are all pretty tasteless.
Answering the original question. I despair about what is happening at the moment, but have faith in the theory being killed by this growing, unstoppable cancer. It may take some time, but it will die, for sure.
Edited by Tangent Police on Tuesday 1st December 16:30
Tangent Police said:
good stuff
That's just about the way I see it too.The one big thing on the skeptics side of course, is that apparently we are heading into a solar minimum, and forecasts for the next 2 decades are of a cooling global climate.
Btw, if anyone wants to watch coverage of the Climategate scandal, one of the few channels that are covering it is 'Russia Today' - channel 512.
Very little.... just yet.
For the next few weeks the BBC et al will sing from the hymn sheet, the great and the good will jet home from Copenhagen full of fois gras and champers after having announced a dramatic step forward. On the back of this taxes will rise, China and the US will do nothing of substance despite whatever words are spoken and no-one will check up on them.
Then it will slowly drop from the headlines, ground breaking stories will fade away and over the next couple of years we'll gradually hear how, because of the total effectiveness of Golden Brown and his "60 days to save the planet" speech, we have turned the corner and the planet is no longer going to shrivel up, and neither are we going to have gondolas parked outside Buckingham Palace.
In 5-10yrs time, assuming the Russian research is correct (and however wrong it seems, I now have more faith in them than our own scientists) we shall be seeing global temperatures dropping, but one thing you won't see at this point will be anyone quoting CO2 levels. And good old Gordy will jump up again (hopefully from the opposition benches) and point out how he saved the world....
For the next few weeks the BBC et al will sing from the hymn sheet, the great and the good will jet home from Copenhagen full of fois gras and champers after having announced a dramatic step forward. On the back of this taxes will rise, China and the US will do nothing of substance despite whatever words are spoken and no-one will check up on them.
Then it will slowly drop from the headlines, ground breaking stories will fade away and over the next couple of years we'll gradually hear how, because of the total effectiveness of Golden Brown and his "60 days to save the planet" speech, we have turned the corner and the planet is no longer going to shrivel up, and neither are we going to have gondolas parked outside Buckingham Palace.
In 5-10yrs time, assuming the Russian research is correct (and however wrong it seems, I now have more faith in them than our own scientists) we shall be seeing global temperatures dropping, but one thing you won't see at this point will be anyone quoting CO2 levels. And good old Gordy will jump up again (hopefully from the opposition benches) and point out how he saved the world....
deeps said:
The one big thing on the skeptics side of course, is that apparently we are heading into a solar minimum, and forecasts for the next 2 decades are of a cooling global climate.
If climategate gets successfully sidelined by the MSM and big deals are done at Copenhagen then this could be used by the alarmists as 'proof' that it's working. I suspect it will backfire and work too well, but what do those in power now care about what will happen in 20 years time?I hope there are too many internet voices for this happen. I don't want to be needlessly fleeced/taxed for decades. And I've not owned a V8 yet!
Two thing's for sure, Brown is never wrong and Cameron will not do a U Turn on this as the basis for their economic reforms are based on revenue raised from it. With a controlled media and an apathetic public the tools are all in place to ignore it here, the only hope we have is for the rest of the world to pick it up and run with it.
The US seems to be pretty pissed off so there's a chance there and, to be honest, I really think it depends if the 'money' sees it as a risk to continue to invest in green policy. If it does, then truth will out, if not we're screwed.
The US seems to be pretty pissed off so there's a chance there and, to be honest, I really think it depends if the 'money' sees it as a risk to continue to invest in green policy. If it does, then truth will out, if not we're screwed.
Edited by B Oeuf on Tuesday 1st December 17:33
him_over_there said:
I don't think anything will come of it, outside of the this place / the 'blogosphere' I don't know a single person who if you mentioned climategate would even know what you were talking about.
It is now my mission to tell everybody I meet to google Climategate. 
I'm yet to find anybody you knows what the hell I'm going on about.
IMHO, climategate will be ignored and snowed over with more "evidence" that "proves" we need to be taxed to stop the world going foom, even today there was some crap on the TV and in the papers claiming sea levels would be going up quicker than expected................anybody who generates enough negative press over climategate will soon find themselves a: on a boat thats going to sink b: jabbed with an umberella c: turned into a real life Emmanuel Goldstein!
t either wayMaybe this will run after all, there is too much evidence on the net now
UK climate scientist to temporarily step down
(AP) – 1 hour ago
LONDON — Britain's University of East Anglia says the director of its prestigious Climatic Research Unit is stepping down pending an investigation into allegations that he overstated the case for man-made climate change.
The university says Phil Jones will relinquish his position until the completion of an independent review into allegations that he worked to alter the way in which global temperature data was presented.
The allegations were made after more than a decade of correspondence between leading British and U.S. scientists were posted to the Web following the security breach last month.
The e-mails were seized upon by some skeptics of man-made climate change as proof that scientists are manipulating the data about its extent
Edited by B Oeuf on Tuesday 1st December 20:09
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