Which countries economy goes down next?

[Fittster]

So the credit crunch has claimed Dubai, Ireland and Iceland but whoose next? One of the club med countries, are Morgan Stanley on the money predicting it's the UK, is the green back as dead as Stephen Gately or is the great wall going to fall?

I'm going for a longshot myself, Japan. 20 years of depression and government stimulus has left them with a national debt of 200% GDP and rising. Even a strong economy can be crushed by enough debt.

Edited by Fittster on Tuesday 1st December 22:51

[HarryW]

I've gone for Greece, only because I reckon the ancient ruins and culture must have been left by aliens, it certainly couldn't have been left by the present incumbents

[limpsfield]

Where is the "no one" option?

[Fittster]

limpsfield said:

Where is the "no one" option?

No need for that option, soon or later someones economy will go down the toilet, it's just a case of picking who.

[jeff m]

I think Japan has been in the toilet for a while.
The flyers seem to be Brazil India and China, I suppose they could have corrections which could screw things up.

My vote goes to Poland or possibly one of the old Soviet counties none of which I can spell.

[RDMcG]

Probably one of the PIGS.(Poland,Ireland,Greece,Spain)

[cs02rm0]

"Your vote has been included in a Zimbabwe election..."

How fitting.

Zimbabwe could be very suitably replaced by the UK next year.

[ShadownINja]

Ah, yes, India. Like China, it's been booming out there. Massive growth... sub-standard quality...

Edited by ShadownINja on Wednesday 2nd December 11:28

[Digga]

HarryW said:

I've gone for Greece, only because I reckon the ancient ruins and culture must have been left by aliens, it certainly couldn't have been left by the present incumbents

Sadly - because my sister and her family live out there - I have to agree. The place is shambolic, corrupt and it has twice the debt % of the UK IIRC.

[anonymous-user]

cs02rm0 said:

"Your vote has been included in a Zimbabwe election..."

That was my one.

[ShadownINja]

Digga said:

HarryW said:

I've gone for Greece, only because I reckon the ancient ruins and culture must have been left by aliens, it certainly couldn't have been left by the present incumbents

Sadly - because my sister and her family live out there - I have to agree. The place is shambolic, corrupt and it has twice the debt % of the UK IIRC.

Well... it may have been until Gordon the Gambler had the demon take him and went on his spree.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_...

[Digga]

ShadownINja said:

Digga said:

HarryW said:

I've gone for Greece, only because I reckon the ancient ruins and culture must have been left by aliens, it certainly couldn't have been left by the present incumbents

Sadly - because my sister and her family live out there - I have to agree. The place is shambolic, corrupt and it has twice the debt % of the UK IIRC.

Well... it may have been until Gordon the Gambler had the demon take him and went on his spree.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_...

This must be what I had in mind:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_...

Either way, I heard from my Greek BIL about the way things are run locally and it's hair-raising.

[Skipppy]

RDMcG said:

Probably one of the PIGS.(Poland,Ireland,Greece,Spain)

I thought the P stood for Portugal?

[Digga]

Skipppy said:

RDMcG said:

Probably one of the PIGS.(Poland,Ireland,Greece,Spain)

I thought the P stood for Portugal?

Is it not PIIGS; Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain?

I though Poland was not too bad?

[Kermit power]

ShadownINja said:

Digga said:

HarryW said:

I've gone for Greece, only because I reckon the ancient ruins and culture must have been left by aliens, it certainly couldn't have been left by the present incumbents

Sadly - because my sister and her family live out there - I have to agree. The place is shambolic, corrupt and it has twice the debt % of the UK IIRC.

Well... it may have been until Gordon the Gambler had the demon take him and went on his spree.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_...

That's a dangerously useless table. The US & UK figures are from June this year, compared with 2007 figures for just about everywhere else. Kind of like saying "look how rich I was before I lost everything!"

[crofty1984]

Doubt it would be Italy. It's still got a pretty good industrial base (Says the man losing his job over here!)

[jeff m]

Digga said:

Skipppy said:

RDMcG said:

Probably one of the PIGS.(Poland,Ireland,Greece,Spain)

I thought the P stood for Portugal?

Is it not PIIGS; Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain?

I though Poland was not too bad?

Polands problem is debt growth, current level is ok, esp compared with other european countries but it is getting yelled at by some international (or Euro) body. No link, sorry, I read this a few days ago.

Possibly in better shape than UK

[Kermit power]

crofty1984 said:

Doubt it would be Italy. It's still got a pretty good industrial base (Says the man losing his job over here!)

In terms of dollar output, it's about 10% larger than the UK, so you could make the same argument for here. Just because it's not all factory chimneys belching fumes and steel mills in Sheffield, it doesn't mean we don't have a manufacturing base.

[Fittster]

Top marks for those that said greece

"Fears over the solvency of Greece reached a new level on Monday night as Standard & Poors put the country's debt on notice for an imminent downgrade.

The agency placed the country on credit watch negative, meaning it is likely to lose its A- rating within months. The country already has the lowest credit rating in the eurozone, but has come under greater scrutiny amid fears that its newly-elected government may avoid imposing significant cuts on the public finances.

The news, which coincided with a separate warning from Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank president, pushed interest rates on Greek bonds to their highest levels in seven months. "

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/f...

[Tangent Police]

If they hadn't fked themselves into the Euro, they'd be able to devalue their currency, alter interest rates, etc, etc, etc.

Precisely why the UK is below the PIIGS in that list.

And the Euro remains strong.

It's ok, it's in our interest that we don't see anyone struggling before we join the "project" ourselves.