753 Cerbera's MOT'd in 2007
Discussion
...according to a Freedom Of Information request by the Beeb.
Not really a repost, because elsewhere they are talking about the roadworthiness of various manufacturers, but I note that it means that 753 Cerberas were MOT'd, if you allow say 10% for SORN then we should have a reasonable guesstimate of the number of surviving beasties at around 825.
BBC News Article here
Not really a repost, because elsewhere they are talking about the roadworthiness of various manufacturers, but I note that it means that 753 Cerberas were MOT'd, if you allow say 10% for SORN then we should have a reasonable guesstimate of the number of surviving beasties at around 825.
BBC News Article here
Edited by apguy on Wednesday 13th January 14:12
Excellent as you can even see how many cars there are for year of make (cerberas) ie 1996 60 cars 1997 172 1998 171 etc etc where put in for mot's
Ps the 1998s did well on ther pass/fail rate as a % and did very very well as a % on there fail rate for body and structure, and who said 1998s where dodgy, flame suit on
Stu
Ps the 1998s did well on ther pass/fail rate as a % and did very very well as a % on there fail rate for body and structure, and who said 1998s where dodgy, flame suit on
Stu
Edited by exwinegtrr33 on Wednesday 13th January 14:53
Edited by exwinegtrr33 on Wednesday 13th January 15:16
I think you have to add the total of passed & failures together to get the total number of each car (subject to the variance for cars that were MoTed twice in a year). Some models of car had more failures than passes, some had just failures with no passes.
I presume the figures show the number of cars which passed first time. ie. Total Cerbs is 753 (passed first time) + 278 (failed first time) = 1031 Cerbs. 278 is a 27% failure rate as stated.
If I'm right there were 1031 Cerbs on the road in the UK in 2007. Probably about 850 now following exports, SORNs and write offs.
I presume the figures show the number of cars which passed first time. ie. Total Cerbs is 753 (passed first time) + 278 (failed first time) = 1031 Cerbs. 278 is a 27% failure rate as stated.
If I'm right there were 1031 Cerbs on the road in the UK in 2007. Probably about 850 now following exports, SORNs and write offs.
working on the 80/20 rule if there were 753 cars mot'd that would represent 20% having been sold with a new MOT (prob higher but a good model for guestimation. this would mean approx 600 cars.
then add in 20% for sorns and exports which is approx 120 and this leaves us with approx 720 cars.
we know there were exactly 1996 + 1 (the white one) and possibly one more that was held back. which suggests that in the 12 or so years since production beganwe have lost approx 1200 cars to the scrapyard and donors for racers etc. which is about 10% per year. Obviously the attrition rate was higher in the early days and has recently been quelled with more and more cars ending up as keepers, but as a rule of thumb this should be reasonably representative of what's left.
so I may be wrong but i say there were definitely less than 1000 left and as a stab in the dark I 'd recon on between 750-850 tops...
then factor in the S6's (which aren't real cerbs anyway) and we are left with say <500
then add in 20% for sorns and exports which is approx 120 and this leaves us with approx 720 cars.
we know there were exactly 1996 + 1 (the white one) and possibly one more that was held back. which suggests that in the 12 or so years since production beganwe have lost approx 1200 cars to the scrapyard and donors for racers etc. which is about 10% per year. Obviously the attrition rate was higher in the early days and has recently been quelled with more and more cars ending up as keepers, but as a rule of thumb this should be reasonably representative of what's left.
so I may be wrong but i say there were definitely less than 1000 left and as a stab in the dark I 'd recon on between 750-850 tops...
then factor in the S6's (which aren't real cerbs anyway) and we are left with say <500
Edited by Cooky on Thursday 14th January 15:22
Tanguero said:
I don't think so, because many cars will have failed first time, been fixed then come back to pass on the second or subsequent attempt.
I've looked into this now. The number for MoT passes is defined as the number of 'Initial MoT passes'. Document is here http://www.vosa.gov.uk/vosa/repository/MOT-IB-716%...This would infer this is not the total number of cars just the number that passed first time.
The data also states 278 cars failed and this was 27% of the total sample. Hence 1031 Cerbs were tested as 27% of 1031 = 278.
Cooky said:
we know there were exactly 1996 + 1 (the white one) and possibly one more that was held back.
I think the 'factory' 1996 number has been questioned by other 'factory' numbers and published numbers of around 1,500. At the end of the day I doubt anyone really knows how many were made.
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