Polls Now Suggest Labour To Be The Next Government !
Discussion
Unreal...
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Polls-Su...
If the Tories cant muster enough seats to form a government in the midst of the worst economy for at least 70 years - not to mention the most unpopular PM since Mrs T - then I'm afraid it may not happen in your lifetime.
I really thought the country at large wanted change - clearly not as much as I thought.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Polls-Su...
If the Tories cant muster enough seats to form a government in the midst of the worst economy for at least 70 years - not to mention the most unpopular PM since Mrs T - then I'm afraid it may not happen in your lifetime.
I really thought the country at large wanted change - clearly not as much as I thought.
Edited by im on Tuesday 2nd March 10:48
Good god the media really have gone mad. How the hell these useless polls can come up with a 2% gap one day and then a 7% gap 24 hours later? People do not change their minds like that and the ones which do usually don't vote anyway.
There has been a narrowing trend in polls no doubt but the only way in the UK to get any sort of proper election prediction is by doing 646 seperate proper polls - one in each constituancy. No one does that so predicting winners, losers or hung parliaments on hopelessly volatile daily polls on national swings is madness.
The only general trend is that it is probably quite close with the Tories ahead. No one, Cameron and Brown included, will really know what has happened until about 1.00am on May 7.
There has been a narrowing trend in polls no doubt but the only way in the UK to get any sort of proper election prediction is by doing 646 seperate proper polls - one in each constituancy. No one does that so predicting winners, losers or hung parliaments on hopelessly volatile daily polls on national swings is madness.
The only general trend is that it is probably quite close with the Tories ahead. No one, Cameron and Brown included, will really know what has happened until about 1.00am on May 7.
M3333 said:
If these Parasites get back in again then i am afraid at the next election Brown may have pushed through his voting reform ideas.
Already happened, you just haven't been allowed to know it. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaties_of_the_Europ...
Why do you think, all of a sudden, the British parliamentary system and MP's are being demonised?? (expenses etc)
confused_buyer said:
Good god the media really have gone mad. How the hell these useless polls can come up with a 2% gap one day and then a 7% gap 24 hours later? People do not change their minds like that and the ones which do usually don't vote anyway.
There has been a narrowing trend in polls no doubt but the only way in the UK to get any sort of proper election prediction is by doing 646 seperate proper polls - one in each constituancy. No one does that so predicting winners, losers or hung parliaments on hopelessly volatile daily polls on national swings is madness.
The only general trend is that it is probably quite close with the Tories ahead. No one, Cameron and Brown included, will really know what has happened until about 1.00am on May 7.
Anyone know how these polls are conducted? Do a bunch of researchers go to varioius regions and do it by hand/phone etc?There has been a narrowing trend in polls no doubt but the only way in the UK to get any sort of proper election prediction is by doing 646 seperate proper polls - one in each constituancy. No one does that so predicting winners, losers or hung parliaments on hopelessly volatile daily polls on national swings is madness.
The only general trend is that it is probably quite close with the Tories ahead. No one, Cameron and Brown included, will really know what has happened until about 1.00am on May 7.
We used a company here to do some stuff for us - a YouGov alliance - and they poll people that have specifically been put on their register and everything is done by email. This leads to people who actively want to answer these things and it made me think that they're more likely to be opinionated than the average joe.
I wonder if they can be planted by the parties to skew results somewhat.
Look past the polls and look at the data.
The Conservatives are polling higher in the marginals which are critical if they are to win power. It's these constituency's which will decide who wins the election.
Which is the reason Ashcroft has been targetting them, but lets not open that can of worms eh?
The Conservatives are polling higher in the marginals which are critical if they are to win power. It's these constituency's which will decide who wins the election.
Which is the reason Ashcroft has been targetting them, but lets not open that can of worms eh?
lenny007 said:
Look past the polls and look at the data.
The Conservatives are polling higher in the marginals which are critical if they are to win power. It's these constituency's which will decide who wins the election.
Which is the reason Ashcroft has been targetting them, but lets not open that can of worms eh?
Good point, and I'll take the honourable gentleman's point, and direct him towards the relevant thread.The Conservatives are polling higher in the marginals which are critical if they are to win power. It's these constituency's which will decide who wins the election.
Which is the reason Ashcroft has been targetting them, but lets not open that can of worms eh?
I don't think that polls deserve much consideration. As confused buyer says, the mood of the nation doesn't swing about as wildly as the polls do, which suggests that the polls are less than accurate.
I read this from Boris yesterday.
Gordon Brown 'on course to win the election'? You've got to be joking
"I have an answer for all those befuddled by the recent mutability of the polls. May I direct you to Betfair, a political betting website that in my experience is almost uncanny in its accuracy. Here you are looking at the predictions that people are willing to defend with their own money, and the money is still overwhelmingly on the Tories. The single most likely outcome – and you can actually watch as the bets go down and the stakes mount up – is that the Tories will have a comfortable overall majority, easily enough to govern for five years. As for the idea that Gordon Brown 's Labour Party could win the election , with an overall majority – that possibility has been flatlining for months at between five and 10 per cent. The reason I trust the punters of Betfair more than I trust a poll in a Sunday paper is that the punters have thought it through with the care of those investing their own money."
At the moment the odds are:
Con Majority: 1.64
No overall Majority: 2.96
Lab Majority: 16.5
I think there are two realistically possible outcomes, either a Tory win, or a hung Parliament.
I read this from Boris yesterday.
Gordon Brown 'on course to win the election'? You've got to be joking
"I have an answer for all those befuddled by the recent mutability of the polls. May I direct you to Betfair, a political betting website that in my experience is almost uncanny in its accuracy. Here you are looking at the predictions that people are willing to defend with their own money, and the money is still overwhelmingly on the Tories. The single most likely outcome – and you can actually watch as the bets go down and the stakes mount up – is that the Tories will have a comfortable overall majority, easily enough to govern for five years. As for the idea that Gordon Brown 's Labour Party could win the election , with an overall majority – that possibility has been flatlining for months at between five and 10 per cent. The reason I trust the punters of Betfair more than I trust a poll in a Sunday paper is that the punters have thought it through with the care of those investing their own money."
At the moment the odds are:
Con Majority: 1.64
No overall Majority: 2.96
Lab Majority: 16.5
I think there are two realistically possible outcomes, either a Tory win, or a hung Parliament.
Asterix said:
Anyone know how these polls are conducted? Do a bunch of researchers go to varioius regions and do it by hand/phone etc?
I don't know if it applies to this particular poll, but I know that YouGov do pay people to partake in polls.Join the panel and earn between £1.00 and 50p per survey. Surveys range from politics to brand marketing, so don't miss out on the chance to have your say!
I know that some people view this as supplementary income, and click through it in seconds without even reading the questions. I also suspect that the type of people this appeals to, are not a genuine cross section of the voters.
MX7 said:
Asterix said:
Anyone know how these polls are conducted? Do a bunch of researchers go to varioius regions and do it by hand/phone etc?
I don't know if it applies to this particular poll, but I know that YouGov do pay people to partake in polls.Join the panel and earn between £1.00 and 50p per survey. Surveys range from politics to brand marketing, so don't miss out on the chance to have your say!
I know that some people view this as supplementary income, and click through it in seconds without even reading the questions. I also suspect that the type of people this appeals to, are not a genuine cross section of the voters.
k sake and really do a big push to get elected. Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff