Desktop to die out?

[kanes]

What do you think? I've heard a few people talk about this and how laptops are the future, personally I can see their point of view and it does make sense.

At the moment for the price of a desktop/monitor setup you can get a pretty good laptop, though not exactly 100% matched power wise, but good enough.

In terms of manufacturing, the technology is pretty similar, all the cheapy manufacturers stick everything onboard and the footprint has shrunk to become mini PC sized. Logistic wise it's going to be cheaper and simpler to ship and produce laptops, a one size fits all solution.

The major companies seem slow on introducing 'home entertainment centers', really they need to start working on one, they had a golden opportunity when Satellita manufacturers began shipping boxes with TIVO/digital and now HDTV, perhaps there's still time. I don't know whether it was the media companies dragging their heels about potential piracy or whether nobody really contemplated it enough.

Broadband has arrived and VOIP is coming along, USA is having a big debate with the FCC at the moment for what to do with VOIP companies. The new tech lot are starting to be able to produce cost effective routers that can deal with VOIP and broadband. The backend is coming along from the usual players. I could see base stations that act as home routers, routing voice calls to cordless phones, doing wireless to pcs and having some connection to the satellie/cable box. That would be impressive.

There's plenty of possibilies for that technology; On demand movies (H.264 codec is able to provide DVD quality images over 1mbps), on demand music (itunes already proving popular enough to make MS/Walmart jump in), stick a USB port in the home entertainment center, and you can whack them on your Ipod, or just store them on the center's hdd. It'd help provide a more interactive environment for the user, something that is in demand.

Anyone see Vulcan's flipstart pc? is it me or does that look kind of pointless? I just can't see how it's going to be able to do everything it says it will with any kind of performance. Or am I just cynical?

[stevieb]

Basic laptops have dome down in price considerably in the past year or so. But there performace and reliability compared to a desktop is poor.

I would much rather have a desktop to do certain stuff, artwork, webdesign, etc. Bigger screen bigger keyboard better mouse(rather than a crappy touchpad)

But desktop prices has tumbled as well. 299 plus vat gets you a reasonable workstation for most tasks.

Steve

[Bodo]

kanes said:

In terms of manufacturing, the technology is pretty similar, all the cheapy manufacturers stick everything onboard and the footprint has shrunk to become mini PC sized. Logistic wise it's going to be cheaper and simpler to ship and produce laptops, a one size fits all solution.

This is how it is going to be: One identical backbone for all PCs. Laptops have an additional accu, desktops have a bigger case (the same backbone size though), and different product ranges are craeted by disabling more or less features. Just like it is already today with many other products

[ATG]

Software dev companies/consultancies I have worked for over the last 3 or 4 years have almost exclusivley used laptops in place of standard workstations. Discs tend to be a bit more fragile, so backup discipline becomes even more important, but that is no bad thing.
I currently use a Dell M50 which is a pretty serious piece of kit. 2.4Ghz P4, 1GB RAM, 120GB HD, 1600X1200 screen with a dual graphics card. Discs are slow by workstation standards. Makes a perfectly good workstation.

[simpo two]

stevieb said:

I would much rather have a desktop to do certain stuff, artwork, webdesign, etc. Bigger screen bigger keyboard better mouse(rather than a crappy touchpad)

Me too. If I was a rail commuter or highly mobile it might be different, but desktop is best for me in all respects.

[dazren]

Having had a series of laptops (usually going wrong about 3 months out of warranty ), I've recently switched back to a desk top with a 17 in flatscreen and infra red mouse/keyboard. Very reliable and it'll be a long time before I bother with laptops again.

DAZ

>> Edited by dazren on Thursday 19th February 10:20

[Plotloss]

Laptops are preposterous pieces of equipment. Outdated as soon as you leave the shop.

Desktops on the other hand have a life, can be upgraded, are easier to use, dont tie you to a manufacturer.

Microsofts Tablet PC prototype where you active a citrix style limited functionality emulation session when you lift the screen off the desktop is going to be the big mover in this arena in the 5 year term I believe.

Then you have the best of both worlds, a big desktop for the heavy stuff and a tablet PC to surf/write emails.

[jam1et]

Agree with you plotloss.

I hate not being able to upgrade laptops. Well apart from adding a bit of RAM or a bigger disk.

My last laptop lasted two years before it became too slow for my requirements whereas I've had my PC for 8 years. Admitedly its a bit like Trigger's brush, with all the parts having been upgraded more than once. But thats the point - if I need a faster process/graphics card/motherboard I buy one, I dont need to ditch the whole thing and start again from scratch.

Laptops are useful in a hot-desking environment but then again, I hate hot-desking too.

>> Edited by jam1et on Thursday 19th February 11:29

[greenv8s]

My work tends to be very IO intensive and for this sort of work laptops don't deliver anything like the performance of a comparable spec workstation. Actual performance depends on a lot more than CPU speed and amount of RAM.

[kanes]

Bodo said:

This is how it is going to be: One identical backbone for all PCs. Laptops have an additional accu, desktops have a bigger case (the same backbone size though), and different product ranges are craeted by disabling more or less features. Just like it is already today with many other products

I can't see it happening given they've tried standardising laptop internals a few times, it always end's in problems. So many companies use the same designs and only differ by the casing/label. Asus produce alot of internals for laptops.

ATX/mATX were good ideas but that was back in the day and I think largely done to ease motherboard/case manufacturer's. Most firms do their own laptops casings and they're all different.

But with regard the same structure for desktops and laptops, I can't see it happening, it'd be a pretty even cost of manufacturing, and the desktop wouldn't have many advantages over the laptop, but the laptop would be portable.

I think one of the best points mentioned was upgradability, that's previsely the point, you're very constricted. I'm sure that is something manufacturers want, if it works, why fix it? as the saying goes, so I'm sure they'd like a smaller product lifecycle, come back and buy a new one every couple of years (along with your new OS...)

Why change windows when 2000 did everything it said on the tin? It's all about making your product reliable yet at the same time, limiting it's lifespan to make people buy another. Commercial PC makers don't make huge profits like they used to because of increased competition, they're always pushing the latest gadget as an excuse to buy a new PC, making upgrading harder would make their lives even easier.

But, my laptop lasts the warranty period, 1 year then it goes on ebay (2ndhand laptops still get good prices compared to desktops) and a new model arrives. I'm sure they prefer this lifecycle but realistically it'd be a 2/3 year period for most users.

>> Edited by kanes on Thursday 19th February 23:32

[sjg]

Plotloss said:

Microsofts Tablet PC prototype where you active a citrix style limited functionality emulation session when you lift the screen off the desktop is going to be the big mover in this arena in the 5 year term I believe. Then you have the best of both worlds, a big desktop for the heavy stuff and a tablet PC to surf/write emails.

Smart Display in MS-speak. And they've dropped development for it, which effectively condemns it to an early grave. Although it's a promising idea, the reviews I've seen have said it's very poor in practice; there's few computing activities that you can do well with a pen only. So you plug in a mini-keyboard and have to prop the display up while you type. In which case, you may as well have a lightweight laptop which has the keyboard and keeps the screen at a decent angle by itself. Plus it can do the more demanding things that can't be done over a remote desktop connection.

The TabletPCs (which sit somewhere between) aren't doing well either - they suit a few niche markets but it seems there aren't thousands of people who need or what that kind of functionality.

For my home use, I got rid of my noisy Athlon tower over 2 years ago and have had laptops since - haven't regretted it at all. I looked at the cost of quietening my PC and buying a decent, high-res TFT screen to free some desk space and the laptop worked out more favourable. Plus after sitting at a desk all day it's nicer to lie on the sofa and check my email and forums. If I'm staying away from home I have my music and movies to keep entertained. Performance isn't a big issue, after getting disillusioned with PC games I've used consoles since and nothing pushes it too much (although a 1.3ghz pentium-M is fine when needed). Disk performance is the weak point, so you want to avoid hitting the disk as much as possible - just load it up with extra RAM and use suspend and hibernate to avoid loading everything over and over. If you need more speed for something disk-intensive get an external drive.

Used to be into upgrading PCs; these days it hardly seems worth the hassle and CPU/memory/motherboard standards move on so fast it's rarely economic to do small upgrades. Beyond the initial depreciation laptops hold their value relatively well - just do what the Apple users do and sell the old one to afford the latest shiny model. Most laptops can have memory and hard disks upgraded easily, plus with USB2 and firewire your external options are much better these days. I'm sitting here with my 200Gb drive (nice and quick for video editing and the like) and 8x DVD writer connected to my laptop and both work as seamlessly as a desktop.

I don't see laptops replacing desktops outright, but these days I don't see many compelling reasons to choose a desktop for home unless you're into spending hundreds on graphics cards for playing same old tired FPS games.