Discussion
Sorry if it's a pea-roast, but have you seen this?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politic...
You can play with your very own swingometer.
The scary thing is, according to my brief play around wiht it, the the conservatives need a huge swing,something like 20% to get a majority. Weirdly the best thing that could happen for them is a swing from the Lib Dems to Labour. They've really fixed it, those dirty red b
ds.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politic...
You can play with your very own swingometer.
The scary thing is, according to my brief play around wiht it, the the conservatives need a huge swing,something like 20% to get a majority. Weirdly the best thing that could happen for them is a swing from the Lib Dems to Labour. They've really fixed it, those dirty red b
ds.More like 7%. But that's only if its a Uniform National Swing - i.e. the swing in every constituency is 7%. Obviously that's not right as some constituencies will have greater or less swings. Lots of debate on sites about this on sites like Political Betting and UK Polling Report.
Which is where Lord Ashcroft comes in. He is/was masterminding the campaign (majority of funding was from local activisits) in the marginal seats - the seats the Conservatives need to win for a majority. The uniform swing in these seats is higher than the national swing. So the swing the Tories will actually require will be lower than the UNS models (like the Swingometer) would suggest.
Which is where Lord Ashcroft comes in. He is/was masterminding the campaign (majority of funding was from local activisits) in the marginal seats - the seats the Conservatives need to win for a majority. The uniform swing in these seats is higher than the national swing. So the swing the Tories will actually require will be lower than the UNS models (like the Swingometer) would suggest.
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff