Lib Dems: Favourites to win?

[groucho]

I heard this on the radio today. Is this right? Could be trouble ahead if they do.

[B17NNS]

Trouble? That is the biggest understatement in the history of understatements

We're fked. You're about to watch the equivalent of the detonation a large nuclear device a few miles from your home. No point complaining about it. Pull up a chair, open a beer and wait for the firework show.

[Jasandjules]

Well, as we are British we are fond of a wind-up, and fond of building people up only to knock them down again.

I suspect people are just taking the p**s in the polls and will vote the only option which is realistically available to have some chance of not utterly destroying the country.

[aponting389]

Jasandjules said:

Well, as we are British we are fond of a wind-up, and fond of building people up only to knock them down again.

I suspect people are just taking the p**s in the polls and will vote the only option which is realistically available to have some chance of not utterly destroying the country.

which is?

[peterpeter]

wasnt BBC radio was it?

The BBC are currently frothing at the arse all over the Lib Dems.
Nick Robinson, has found a new figure to drool over and tell us about.

Hope anyone planning on stting their vote on anyone else than the tories is watching.

[B17NNS]

peterpeter said:

frothing at the arse

beautiful turn of phrase, up there with 'foaming at the gash'

[Plotloss]

No overall 4/6
Tory Win 13/8
Labour win 20/1
Lib Dem win 33/1

[Zod]

back down to third in tonight's yougov poll, so I think not.

[groucho]

Zod said:

back down to third in tonight's yougov poll, so I think not.

Pheew!

[rs1952]

Zod said:

back down to third in tonight's yougov poll, so I think not.

Never take one poll in isolation just because it may (or may not) support your view.

There'll be another one along in a minute

[Ceylon]

There is a distinct, and frightening, possibility that the Lib Dems will take Tory votes and Labour will be returned with a larger majority.

God helps us....

[Morningside]

Ceylon said:

There is a distinct, and frightening, possibility that the Lib Dems will take Tory votes and Labour will be returned with a larger majority.

God helps us....

That is my guess as well. I blame students

How much of a seat swing would be required for them to have any hope whatsoever?

Edited by Morningside on Friday 23 April 13:17

[clonmult]

TVR Moneypit said:

Ceylon said:

There is a distinct, and frightening, possibility that the Lib Dems will take Tory votes and Labour will be returned with a larger majority.

God helps us....

We're screwed.

Regardless of how you look at it, we're screwed.

Labour win - totally screwed over from behind without even a reacharound
Lib dem win - screwed from behind with a smile and a reach around
Tory win - screwed by someone with a nice blue tie

If its a hung parliament, we're basically going to be screwed in a gangbang.

[Andy Zarse]

B17NNS said:

peterpeter said:

frothing at the arse

beautiful turn of phrase, up there with 'foaming at the gash'

Well, I'd say he was fairly fizzing at the bunghole when I saw him on BBC News.

[Johnnytheboy]

Libdems would have to get an utterly massive swing in their favour in order to gain even a minority victory, due to the even distribution of their vote.

Has anyone else noticed the deafening silence of the BBC on the fact that (AFAIK) this is the first time for a very long time that a governing party has been third in the opinion polls in an election camapign? But no, the Clegg bubble is only a probalem for the Tories it would seem.

Let's say the Tories win but it's a hung parliament (as seems most likely). Would the Libdems really join a Lib-lab coalition in those circumstances and prolong Gordon's government? they'd be crucified.

[rs1952]

clonmult said:

TVR Moneypit said:

Ceylon said:

There is a distinct, and frightening, possibility that the Lib Dems will take Tory votes and Labour will be returned with a larger majority.

God helps us....

We're screwed.

Regardless of how you look at it, we're screwed.

Labour win - totally screwed over from behind without even a reacharound
Lib dem win - screwed from behind with a smile and a reach around
Tory win - screwed by someone with a nice blue tie

If its a hung parliament, we're basically going to be screwed in a gangbang.

IMHO, there is not a cat in hell's chance of labour getting a larger majority than they have now, if for no other reason than they lose seats in the north to the Lib Dems.

Also, IMHO, the conservatives are unlikely to get an overall majority.

We are into hung parliament territory which, of course, is something that the majority of European countries have been used to and have been handling quite well for some years.

The problem that will need to be addressed soon is that, barring some miracle, the election result will put serious power in the hands of the Lib Dems. That, in turn, will mean that we are on our way to some form of proportional representation, and I think that is coming as sure as the sun is going to rise in the morning.

Politicians in the main parties don't want it. They say it causes "weak" government but what that actually means is they cannot ram their legislation through with a sledgehammer because the opposition can't stop it. Had we have had PR over the last 5 years, ideas such as 90-day detention for terrorist suspects and ID cards would never have got off the ground, and a lot of parliamentary time and expense could have been saved. I would call that an advantage of PR but some might disagree

The only major disadvantage of PR is that, if you are not careful, you have minority parties weilding disproportionate power because the governing party needs one or two nutters on the fringe to support them. As I see it, we need to devise a PR system (possibly a transferable vote system) so that the nutters parties are kept out of it.

We all of course have our own views on who the nutters parties are

[Johnnytheboy]

The trick (for the libdems) is to push for a PR system that helps them, but doesn't help smaller parties like UKIP and the Greens.

[WhoseGeneration]

Johnnytheboy said:

The trick (for the libdems) is to push for a PR system that helps them, but doesn't help smaller parties like UKIP and the Greens.

So, a sorta non proportional PR system?
Excuse my sigh.

[rs1952]

WhoseGeneration said:

Johnnytheboy said:

The trick (for the libdems) is to push for a PR system that helps them, but doesn't help smaller parties like UKIP and the Greens.

So, a sorta non proportional PR system?
Excuse my sigh.

Look at the situation is Israel. Absolute proportional representation - if a party gets 1% of the vote they get 1% of the seats. This has resulted over the last 60+ years in no chance of a peace settlement with the Palestinians because every governing party needs the support of the ultra-right to get anything done, and the ultra-right want to make concessions to the Palestinians like they want rabies.

If we had such a system in the UK we would have a seat or two each for the BNP, Cornish Nationalists and the communists in sandals (Greens)

Is that want you want? 'Cos that's what'll happen

[king arthur]

I do seem to remember back in 1992 all the polls predicted a hung parliament but the Conservatives said their own polling predicted they would win with about 20 seats.