Tory majority most likely (at least according to Betfair)

[NoelWatson]

http://site.sports.betfair.com/widgets/layouts/mar...

Trend started after the third debate, but for some reason, odds have shortened dramatically. Are we having a pint of Champers in DDs if they do it?

Edited by NoelWatson on Saturday 1st May 18:50

[king arthur]

ICM/News of the World marginals poll is saying Cameron will have a majority of 4 together with the Ulster Unionists.

[NoelWatson]

king arthur said:

ICM/News of the World marginals poll is saying Cameron will have a majority of 4 together with the Ulster Unionists.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100037540/tonights-opinion-polls-conservative-party-up-liberal-democrats-down/

[5unny]

Ouch at those who backed a Labour Majority at sub 2 prices.

This market must have been open for years because tens of thousands have been traded at ridiculous prices.

[the_smalls]

I personally like the implied probability plots - been keeping an eye on this one... Always have more faith in a market where there are those putting their money where their mouths are, rather than a newspaper poll.

Edited by the_smalls on Saturday 1st May 21:42

[Bing o]

the_smalls said:

I personally like the implied probably plots - been keeping an eye on this one... Always have more faith in a market where there are those putting their money where their mouths are, rather than a newspaper poll.

Sorry, but 65% chance of a LibDem majority?????????????????????????????????

[TheEnd]

yellow= no overall, they wouldn't waste time with lib dem figures!

[king arthur]

Bing o said:

the_smalls said:

I personally like the implied probably plots - been keeping an eye on this one... Always have more faith in a market where there are those putting their money where their mouths are, rather than a newspaper poll.

Sorry, but 65% chance of a LibDem majority?????????????????????????????????

Look more closely.

[Puggit]

Latest ComRes poll:

Tory 38%
Labour 28%
LibDem 25%

A slim majority is possible, but there are many other polls.

[Jasandjules]

Puggit said:

Latest ComRes poll:

Tory 38%
Labour 28%
LibDem 25%

A slim majority is possible, but there are many other polls.

Well, that makes me feel better.

Hopefully those odds will improve the close we get as well.

[D-Angle]

Following a similar pattern to Cameron's election as Conservative leader.

He was an also-ran until it got nearer to the vote, then he pulled ahead at the right time. I think he realises that elections are won and lost in the final week. You couldn't help but notice the change in tune from him at the last debate, he sounded a lot more like someone you could vote for, giving more definite ideas when it is too late for Labour to copy them.

Edited by D-Angle on Saturday 1st May 22:42

[NoelWatson]

http://www.electionpredict.com/news/latest-electio...

[Bing o]

king arthur said:

Bing o said:

the_smalls said:

I personally like the implied probably plots - been keeping an eye on this one... Always have more faith in a market where there are those putting their money where their mouths are, rather than a newspaper poll.

Sorry, but 65% chance of a LibDem majority?????????????????????????????????

Look more closely.

D'oh!!!

[Skywalker]

Bing o said:

the_smalls said:

I personally like the implied probably plots - been keeping an eye on this one... Always have more faith in a market where there are those putting their money where their mouths are, rather than a newspaper poll.

Sorry, but 65% chance of a LibDem majority?????????????????????????????????

I know it was early, but...

[Puggit]

There is only one suitable facepalm:

[Bing o]

I was looking for that one!!

[NoelWatson]

http://site.sports.betfair.com/widgets/layouts/mar...

Going to be a cliffhanger - hung parliament now slight favourite

Edited by NoelWatson on Monday 3rd May 08:45

[Diderot]

NoelWatson said:

Going to be a cliffhanger

[Jasandjules]

I can only hope that people are pretending that they will vote Lib Dem to pressure CMD into releasing some decent policies to swing them back to the Tories. Surely no-one with a car and an IQ greater than their shoe size would vote Lib Dem?

[D-Angle]

Jasandjules said:

I can only hope that people are pretending that they will vote Lib Dem to pressure CMD into releasing some decent policies to swing them back to the Tories. Surely no-one with a car and an IQ greater than their shoe size would vote Lib Dem?

Nick Clegg appeals to a lot of the same people who voted for Blair in 97. Never underestimate how much the Under 30s want to be seen as hip and trendy and 'different'.