How Many MPs? Have a bit of fun.
Discussion
Mattt said:
tuglet said:
Why is it that if cons have 36% and lab have 28% we get a hung parliament, but if your reverse those percentages we get a lab majority of 82?
Because they rigged the system in the boundary changes.Because the kinds of people who tend to support Labour have fairly low turnouts whereas the kinds of people who vote Tory have higher turnout. Assuming uniform equal distribution, the Tories would probably win every seat. Of course they aren't uniformly distributed - instead we have areas with more of the former (e.g. inner city constituencies) and others with more of the latter (e.g. rural constituencies). Labour will probably win the former as they have more supporters but it will be on a reduced turnout as fewer supporters of all parties bother to turn out (i.e. so they need fewer supporters to win). Meanwhile the Tories will probably win the other set of seats but because more people turnout, they need more of their supporters to win.
Basically the Tories have to work harder to win the areas they do well in compared to the effort Labour have to put in to win their seats. Go back and look at the national popular vote again, voila Tories may have higher percentage of seats than posts.
Obviously a simplification but that's generally what causes the disparity.
Basically the Tories have to work harder to win the areas they do well in compared to the effort Labour have to put in to win their seats. Go back and look at the national popular vote again, voila Tories may have higher percentage of seats than posts.
Obviously a simplification but that's generally what causes the disparity.
ninja-lewis said:
Because the kinds of people who tend to support Labour have fairly low turnouts whereas the kinds of people who vote Tory have higher turnout. Assuming uniform equal distribution, the Tories would probably win every seat. Of course they aren't uniformly distributed - instead we have areas with more of the former (e.g. inner city constituencies) and others with more of the latter (e.g. rural constituencies). Labour will probably win the former as they have more supporters but it will be on a reduced turnout as fewer supporters of all parties bother to turn out (i.e. so they need fewer supporters to win). Meanwhile the Tories will probably win the other set of seats but because more people turnout, they need more of their supporters to win.
Basically the Tories have to work harder to win the areas they do well in compared to the effort Labour have to put in to win their seats. Go back and look at the national popular vote again, voila Tories may have higher percentage of seats than posts.
Obviously a simplification but that's generally what causes the disparity.
That makes sense. Would PR deliver a system where 36% of the vote gets you 36% of the seats in parliament?Basically the Tories have to work harder to win the areas they do well in compared to the effort Labour have to put in to win their seats. Go back and look at the national popular vote again, voila Tories may have higher percentage of seats than posts.
Obviously a simplification but that's generally what causes the disparity.
MX7 said:
ninja-lewis said:
Because the kinds of people who tend to support Labour have fairly low turnouts whereas the kinds of people who vote Tory have higher turnout.
I think that's a fairly antiquated view of voters from any persuasion.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff




