End of European grand experiment?
Discussion
So, Europe has announced a Trillion Dollar package to stop the spread of the Greek crisis. Does the PH collective think that this will work?
I don't. Politicians rarely take the long view, and they will just use the breathing space to carry on spending. Sure, there will be new strict rules to reduce spending, but these will be ignored. Greece is a classic example - everybody knew the problem was coming and still they left it far too late!
So, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy will now be able to delay the cuts for a while, and thus the problem will get worse. The markets will allow this to happen because they can make money for the next two years.
However, in two years we will be back to square one, except that there won't be another Trillion available. What then? The Euro will crash. The French and Germans will have lost so much that the public in both countries won't stand for any more. The Euro will be finished. It is quite possible that European institutions will also run into financial difficulties, brining into question the whole concept of a Union.
It is possible that last night's announcement is just a mechanism to give leaders a chance to eject the PIIGS, but I don't think so.
Thoughts?
Don
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I don't. Politicians rarely take the long view, and they will just use the breathing space to carry on spending. Sure, there will be new strict rules to reduce spending, but these will be ignored. Greece is a classic example - everybody knew the problem was coming and still they left it far too late!
So, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy will now be able to delay the cuts for a while, and thus the problem will get worse. The markets will allow this to happen because they can make money for the next two years.
However, in two years we will be back to square one, except that there won't be another Trillion available. What then? The Euro will crash. The French and Germans will have lost so much that the public in both countries won't stand for any more. The Euro will be finished. It is quite possible that European institutions will also run into financial difficulties, brining into question the whole concept of a Union.
It is possible that last night's announcement is just a mechanism to give leaders a chance to eject the PIIGS, but I don't think so.
Thoughts?
Don
--
you Europeans managed your affairs so well before the EU. some international and systems theorists would argue that the formation of the EU has actually preserved and strengthened EU nation states.
the EU is here to stay, its represents one of the most forward thinking and interesting social experiments in western history.
the EU is here to stay, its represents one of the most forward thinking and interesting social experiments in western history.
AndrewW-G said:
First thought is the farily obvious, where the hell are we going to get the 10% of that trillion that thanks to winky were now liable for!
It the current reports are correct, then the UK's exposure is only £8 billion , or about 1.2%. This exposure is down to our participation in the IMF.Don
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don4l said:
AndrewW-G said:
First thought is the farily obvious, where the hell are we going to get the 10% of that trillion that thanks to winky were now liable for!
It the current reports are correct, then the UK's exposure is only £8 billion , or about 1.2%. This exposure is down to our participation in the IMF.Don
--
The original conception of the EU was workable, perhaps even desirable to prevent another European war.
Unfortunately the current version bears no resemblance to that conception.
Had membership been restricted to a core of states like England France and Germany and perhaps a tiny number of others then it would be workable; provided that it was organised upon sensible lines.
Unfortunately we were late entrants to the EU and the political tone had already been set in socialist terms. Had we been the most powerful founder member, as would have been possible in the immediate post war period then we could have set the tone in far more suitable terms with far less socialism.
We now face a situation that the EU has been expanded far beyond its original conception to include many States of dubious financial and political stability. The global economy and supporting those dubious States has seriously damaged the finances of the core nations.
What is now required is to dissolve the EU in its current form and reconstitute it upon the original lines. However, I fear it’s too late.
Unfortunately the current version bears no resemblance to that conception.
Had membership been restricted to a core of states like England France and Germany and perhaps a tiny number of others then it would be workable; provided that it was organised upon sensible lines.
Unfortunately we were late entrants to the EU and the political tone had already been set in socialist terms. Had we been the most powerful founder member, as would have been possible in the immediate post war period then we could have set the tone in far more suitable terms with far less socialism.
We now face a situation that the EU has been expanded far beyond its original conception to include many States of dubious financial and political stability. The global economy and supporting those dubious States has seriously damaged the finances of the core nations.
What is now required is to dissolve the EU in its current form and reconstitute it upon the original lines. However, I fear it’s too late.
Bing o said:
don4l said:
AndrewW-G said:
First thought is the farily obvious, where the hell are we going to get the 10% of that trillion that thanks to winky were now liable for!
It the current reports are correct, then the UK's exposure is only £8 billion , or about 1.2%. This exposure is down to our participation in the IMF.Don
--
AndrewW-G said:
Bing o said:
don4l said:
AndrewW-G said:
First thought is the farily obvious, where the hell are we going to get the 10% of that trillion that thanks to winky were now liable for!
It the current reports are correct, then the UK's exposure is only £8 billion , or about 1.2%. This exposure is down to our participation in the IMF.Don
--
k ups then.AndrewW-G said:
Bing o said:
don4l said:
AndrewW-G said:
First thought is the farily obvious, where the hell are we going to get the 10% of that trillion that thanks to winky were now liable for!
It the current reports are correct, then the UK's exposure is only £8 billion , or about 1.2%. This exposure is down to our participation in the IMF.Don
--
Be fair to Ireland; they have already made massive cuts and addressed the problems of their banking system. The PIGS now have only one "I".
Otherwise, I agree. The Eurozone governemnts will do their usual thing and treat the problems down the line as other countries' problems andinflate spending in order to get themselves re-elected.
It is time for the Germans to say no. Or, rather, it was time this weekend, but they bottled it. They have a perfect excuse in that Greece and Italy (not sure about Spain and Portugal, but I'd be surprised if they were innocent) cooked the figures to qualify for the Euro, so they should never have been members in the first place.
Otherwise, I agree. The Eurozone governemnts will do their usual thing and treat the problems down the line as other countries' problems andinflate spending in order to get themselves re-elected.
It is time for the Germans to say no. Or, rather, it was time this weekend, but they bottled it. They have a perfect excuse in that Greece and Italy (not sure about Spain and Portugal, but I'd be surprised if they were innocent) cooked the figures to qualify for the Euro, so they should never have been members in the first place.
It is clearly a massive ponzi scheme and I wonder how many investors will look at the outcome of those with any real committment......
You cut a tumour out, not chop it into bits and insert it into every organ and muscle.
Edit:- Besides, it's not as if any of this nonsense addresses any of the problems which led to the PIIGS crisis AND WILL LEAD TO IT AGAIN. This is merely a massive opportunity to redistribute wealth when it falls on it's arse.
Throwing huge money into a black hole judging by their politics, philosophy and history of accounts. Bad bad bad idea.
My thoughts are that people will make money where it is to be made, but regard the project as having no long term future.
We shall see. I'm putting ALL of my chips on the fact that the € is not sustainable in it's current form. If this means the magic fund gets spunked, then that will be the case. They are merely passing the bomb IMO.
They need to address the PIIGS situation properly which sadly means either creating a S European Euro OR allowing them to get out of the Euro, devalue it and get some money coming in. All of this is merely upping their dole cheque and they've been proven not to be worthy of free money.
Utterly daft nonsense being driven by idealists with rose tinted specs. Someone really needs to pop a cap into Merkel. fking communist. I think the Krauts are pretty hopping with here.
What's their UKIP called again?
You cut a tumour out, not chop it into bits and insert it into every organ and muscle.
Edit:- Besides, it's not as if any of this nonsense addresses any of the problems which led to the PIIGS crisis AND WILL LEAD TO IT AGAIN. This is merely a massive opportunity to redistribute wealth when it falls on it's arse.
Throwing huge money into a black hole judging by their politics, philosophy and history of accounts. Bad bad bad idea.
My thoughts are that people will make money where it is to be made, but regard the project as having no long term future.
We shall see. I'm putting ALL of my chips on the fact that the € is not sustainable in it's current form. If this means the magic fund gets spunked, then that will be the case. They are merely passing the bomb IMO.
They need to address the PIIGS situation properly which sadly means either creating a S European Euro OR allowing them to get out of the Euro, devalue it and get some money coming in. All of this is merely upping their dole cheque and they've been proven not to be worthy of free money.
Utterly daft nonsense being driven by idealists with rose tinted specs. Someone really needs to pop a cap into Merkel. f
king communist. I think the Krauts are pretty hopping with here. What's their UKIP called again?
Edited by Tangent Police on Monday 10th May 11:46
anonymous said:
[redacted]
My sister lives over there. Last week she was telling me about Childrens' Allowances and other benefits. Robert Peston would describe the sums involved as "eye watering".Although they have made cuts, it seems that they still have a very long way to go. They have a bewildering array of generous benefits that they just cannot afford.
Don
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