The Pound versus the Euro - which direction is it headed?

[DrYazz]

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=...

Do any financial geniuses, economic experts or Mystic Meg relatives know if the Pound is likely to get stronger or weaker against the Euro in the next 6-12 months?

About 10 years ago, in its infancy, £1.00 got you around 1.6 Euros.

Last year in particular, the Euro get very strong and was trading at almost £1.00 to 1 Euro.

The Pound has fought back over the past 12 months, and the rate currently sits at 1.2 Euros to the pound.

Any predictions?

[Stedman]

I'm pretty sure there was bad news to come out of German and France, but it never have unfortunately! We'll get stronger with time I think.

OP - would this not be better in the money section?

[ShadownINja]

I say up but ask me again in a month as I'm waiting to see how the price reacts at key levels. Bull flag forming on weekly EURGBP? Or just a bear channel on daily?

-Meg

Edited by ShadownINja on Saturday 28th August 00:58

[slipstream 1985]

up imo. greece is a basket case portugal spain and ireland all dragging the euro down.

had we had a labour government i would have said the £ would have fallen though.

[DrYazz]

Stedman said:

OP - would this not be better in the money section?

The Mods have already shifted this posting once.
They are a law unto themselves.
Annoying, deluded smug gits

[DrYazz]

Without wishing to be impertinent, I sincerely hope you are all wrong.

[WORKINGALLWEEK]

whatever the pound does i think the cost of living in europe is much higher than in the uk now
going by the time ive spent in germany france and belgium lately

[rudecherub]

Hands up how many people know that Ireland had it's rating reduced again to AA-?

The only good news is that UK Gov is paying less now for borrowed money, due to the Tory cuts.

Pound will go up, Euro will go down, UK interest rates will probably have to rise.

[Silver993tt]

WORKINGALLWEEK said:

whatever the pound does i think the cost of living in europe is much higher than in the uk now
going by the time ive spent in germany france and belgium lately

It's only more expensive if you're a Brit spending/converting £££ into €€€. Cost of living in countries such as Germany/Austria is significantly lower than the UK when taking into account, much cheaper transport, cheaper fuel, cheaper housing (both rent & own), overall taxation (including income tax), no council tax etc.

[Bing o]

rudecherub said:

Hands up how many people know that Ireland had it's rating reduced again to AA-?

[fido]

Both as f8cked as each other, i wouldn't like to wager either way .. i suppose the UK has the advantage that it's supposedly under the control of one government, just as long as it isn't a Labour one.

[Silver993tt]

All Eurozone countries now showing growth with the exception of Greece, which is expected while they implement their strong cutbacks. However, Greece is a tiddler (even with its current debts) when looking at the Eurozone as a whole.

[WORKINGALLWEEK]

Silver993tt said:

WORKINGALLWEEK said:

whatever the pound does i think the cost of living in europe is much higher than in the uk now
going by the time ive spent in germany france and belgium lately

It's only more expensive if you're a Brit spending/converting £££ into €€€. Cost of living in countries such as Germany/Austria is significantly lower than the UK when taking into account, much cheaper transport, cheaper fuel, cheaper housing (both rent & own), overall taxation (including income tax), no council tax etc.

well i thought £6.60 for a small beer and small coke in Bruge last week was dear
perhaps im a tight wad but the equivalent in a local seafront pub today was £4.00 (and it was a pint of beer)
so your average Belgium worker is 50% better paid or 50% less taxed ?

[Silver993tt]

WORKINGALLWEEK said:

Silver993tt said:

WORKINGALLWEEK said:

whatever the pound does i think the cost of living in europe is much higher than in the uk now
going by the time ive spent in germany france and belgium lately

It's only more expensive if you're a Brit spending/converting £££ into €€€. Cost of living in countries such as Germany/Austria is significantly lower than the UK when taking into account, much cheaper transport, cheaper fuel, cheaper housing (both rent & own), overall taxation (including income tax), no council tax etc.

well i thought £6.60 for a small beer and small coke in Bruge last week was dear
perhaps im a tight wad but the equivalent in a local seafront pub today was £4.00 (and it was a pint of beer)
so your average Belgium worker is 50% better paid or 50% less taxed ?

Well, I paid €3.20 for a large (0.5l) beer in Hamburg recently (city centre), so that's around £2.70. Bottle of 0.33cl Becks in a nice bar cost €2.70 or €2.25. Pizza in a nice restaurant, €8 or €6.70. Train from airport to city centre €2.40 or £2.

1 litre of petrol in Austria, €1.14 or £0.95, Diesel €1.07 or £0.89. Costs more in Germany, €1.30 or £1.09, Diesel is cheaper than petrol in all of these countries.

I have many friends in Germany/Austria and they earn a significant amount more than the equivalent in the UK and that's with €1.20 per £. Combine that with lower actual prices, you get quite a bit more for your money.

Belgium has always been expensive, even before the €, I lived there for a year. Paris has always been a rip-off but it doesn't represent most of France either.

Edited by Silver993tt on Monday 30th August 17:33

[dcb]

Silver993tt said:

It's only more expensive if you're a Brit spending/converting £££ into €€€. Cost of living in countries such as Germany/Austria is significantly lower than the UK when taking into account, much cheaper transport, cheaper fuel, cheaper housing (both rent & own), overall taxation (including income tax), no council tax etc.

I'd agree with you that some things in the supermarkt
are cheaper in Euroland, but that's only due to subsidy from
the CAP.

Pretty much everything else you mentioned, I'd disagree with.

Unless you think £1,35 for 100 Oktane is cheap ?

Let's not forget that massive public subsidy for the trains,
buses and trams is a real, but indirect, cost via taxes for
the householder etc.

VAT's more expensive in Euroland, too.

[smack]

About 1 month ago I saw a news report of a business someone setup, buying goods in UK supermarkets for expats in France, and driving refidgerated vans over, as they said the prices in French supermarkets for everyday weekly shopping was so much more expensive.

IIRC, they added a 10% delivery charge onto the goods, and it was still significantly cheaper (according to the report).

[Silver993tt]

dcb said:

Silver993tt said:

It's only more expensive if you're a Brit spending/converting £££ into €€€. Cost of living in countries such as Germany/Austria is significantly lower than the UK when taking into account, much cheaper transport, cheaper fuel, cheaper housing (both rent & own), overall taxation (including income tax), no council tax etc.

I'd agree with you that some things in the supermarkt
are cheaper in Euroland, but that's only due to subsidy from
the CAP.

Pretty much everything else you mentioned, I'd disagree with.

Unless you think £1,35 for 100 Oktane is cheap ?

Let's not forget that massive public subsidy for the trains,
buses and trams is a real, but indirect, cost via taxes for
the householder etc.

VAT's more expensive in Euroland, too.

Firstly, the price of 100 Octane fuel isn't indicative of the cost of living in a country.
With regards subsidies, countries such as Germany have a net surplus due to huge exports (even today in the current climate). Part of that is used to provide a great transport infrastrucure. They can afford it, so it brings down the cost for the population. The UK can't afford it and hence the situation with expensive/uncoordinated transport infrastructure. Taxes are overall lower in Germany & Austria due to far less indirect taxation. Top rate of income tax in Germany is 42%. Other things such as employees on PAYE being able to offset a home office and all equipment help this further, a situation that doesn't exist in the UK.

With regards VAT in the major EU economies, the UK is set at 20%, Germany 19%, Austria 20%, Netherlands 19%, Spain 18%, France 19.6%, Italy 20%. Sweden & Finland have higher rates but they're not exactly major economies. So, The UK has a VAT rate at the highest end of the range for major EU economies.

[Bodo]

WORKINGALLWEEK said:

Silver993tt said:

WORKINGALLWEEK said:

whatever the pound does i think the cost of living in europe is much higher than in the uk now
going by the time ive spent in germany france and belgium lately

It's only more expensive if you're a Brit spending/converting £££ into €€€. Cost of living in countries such as Germany/Austria is significantly lower than the UK when taking into account, much cheaper transport, cheaper fuel, cheaper housing (both rent & own), overall taxation (including income tax), no council tax etc.

well i thought £6.60 for a small beer and small coke in Bruge last week was dear
perhaps im a tight wad but the equivalent in a local seafront pub today was £4.00 (and it was a pint of beer)
so your average Belgium worker is 50% better paid or 50% less taxed ?

£6.60!!! £1.50 for a small beer in Frankfurt.

[CinqAbarth]

It was still 90 cents for a 330ml bottle of Sagres when I was in Portugal in May.

Which is one of the reasons we're going back at the end of the month.

[dcb]

Silver993tt said:

Firstly, the price of 100 Octane fuel isn't indicative of the cost of living in a country.

Many factors affect cost of living - petrol prices are one.
Hence my example - this is a motoring website.

Silver993tt said:

With regards subsidies, countries such as Germany have a net surplus due to huge exports (even today in the current climate). Part of that is used to provide a great transport infrastrucure.

I'd agree that the autobahns, the trams and the railways are world class, but the cost isn't cheap.

Silver993tt said:

They can afford it, so it brings down the cost for the population.

Eh ?

I might be able to afford a new 911, that doesn't make
it a cheap car.

Silver993tt said:

The UK can't afford it and hence the situation with expensive/uncoordinated transport infrastructure.

More that doesn't make sense - the UK has an expensive
transport infrastructure because it is a first world
country and we've got to comply with E U rules
- everything is expensive.

Sure it's uncoordinated, but that's lack of planning,
not lack of money.

Silver993tt said:

Taxes are overall lower in Germany & Austria due to far less indirect taxation.

Not true - how about VAT rates ?

Also, the balance between direct and indirect is
different in all three countries.

Silver993tt said:

With regards VAT in the major EU economies, the UK is set at 20%, Germany 19%, Austria 20%, Netherlands 19%, Spain 18%, France 19.6%, Italy 20%. Sweden & Finland have higher rates but they're not exactly major economies. So, The UK has a VAT rate at the highest end of the range for major EU economies.

You really do seem to be unaware that the UK VAT rate
has been 17.5% for many years, but will go up in a
few months to 20%.

I'm not sure of the details, but I think I'm right
in saying VAT rate in Germany has been 19% for at least
a decade - wasn't it put up to pay for the East many
years ago ?