UK in 2050

[F93]

So I was reading about the internet today and found out some interesting facts about the UK in 2050.

Our population is set to be 76.5 million, the biggest in Western Europe as Germany's will have fallen to 71.5. Of course, if managed properly, this isn't that big a deal. Reading the Daily Mail and Independent's comments on their stories are of course worrying to say the least, people don't seem to know you need more people for a growing economy, generally. But no no, the world is going to end, because they're... dun dun dun BENGALI?!?!?!
I can't help but feel that Labour's liberal immigration rules have saved us from a bad ageing population crisis. Germany's population is mostly people who are about to retire soon. The mortality rate is rising and birth rates are falling. Result? Taxes are going to rise and their good quality of life may fall.
In the UK, the birth rate is rising but mortality is falling. This is good. However, it's up to the politicians to do things properly, and well, this is why I worry. It actually means lower taxes for everyone. Just as people my parents age retire, the baby boomers, a mass of new people will start to flood the labour market, which will mean that as many people retire, their pensions won't have to collapse because plenty of people are paying taxes...
I could be wrong, and there will be high unemployment and inflation, but I doubt that will happen. Our economy is set to get bigger than Germany's by 2030.

So, by 2040, the UK will rule the roost in the EU, apparently. Unless Russia joins.

So, actually things are looking up for us. Of course, if you want to feel miserable, watch the news and find out that no, this is wrong because we are, for certain, all going to die.

Any thoughts? I felt this was an often ignored subject.

[V88Dicky]

Shouldn't we all have been incinerated by then, due to catastrophic human induced global weather damage?




Or something like that.

[maniac0796]

Thought Skynet was first?

Or that 2012 thing?

[EDLT]

I don't believe predictions can be made that far into the future. The Germans could become world leaders in technology that hasn't been invented yet, or we could, or the French etc. Also, how do you make allowances for some complete buffoon being elected and bringing the country to it's knees with a crazy communist/hippy/religious manifesto?

Its impossible.

[turbobloke]

Plenty of chilling out ahead.

[KANEIT]

What, the EU will still be here in forty years time?

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK!

[F93]

EDLT said:

I don't believe predictions can be made that far into the future. The Germans could become world leaders in technology that hasn't been invented yet, or we could, or the French etc. Also, how do you make allowances for some complete buffoon being elected and bringing the country to it's knees with a crazy communist/hippy/religious manifesto?

Its impossible.

I did try to say it in a 'maybe' way. Of course this could happen, but nearly always the balance doesn't change much... Hitler being an exception to the rule.

But people are surely a lot more intelligent (okay, perhaps not that much) now and I doubt that anyone would get elected who'd ruin the country beyond repair....

sounds a bit doomsdayish. And what happens to Doomsdays? They never happen.

[Kermit power]

F93 said:

Any thoughts? I felt this was an often ignored subject.

By and large I think it's a good thing, and I really couldn't care less who lives here so long as they are generally law-abiding, hard-working and paying their way.

The problem, however, is that whilst our population may surpass that of Germany, Germany's surface area is still going to be 1.5 times that of the UK. All the theories you outlined are potentially great things, but they're all going to be a bit fked if we haven't got the space to live in.

To correct one of your points, though, it isn't necessary for the population to grow in order for the economy to grow. Setting aside productivity improvements and so forth, you could get economic growth from the same level of population by getting a higher percentage of that population to contribute.

Which rather does bring me back to the notion of cutting benefits as a desirable approach.

[Talksteer]

Given the timescale of the prediction it is somewhat difficult to be right.

The population created by the current residents of the UK and Germany by 2050 is fairly easy to predict as around 50% of the people around the are currently alive already. What it doesn't take into account where those people go.

Populations will be even more globally mobile and will go where the jobs are. I would suggest that there is a good reason for people to go to work at the worlds largest exporter (Germany) so no prediction of the relative power of the two economies can be made in the long term.

[F93]

Kermit power said:

F93 said:

Any thoughts? I felt this was an often ignored subject.

By and large I think it's a good thing, and I really couldn't care less who lives here so long as they are generally law-abiding, hard-working and paying their way.

The problem, however, is that whilst our population may surpass that of Germany, Germany's surface area is still going to be 1.5 times that of the UK. All the theories you outlined are potentially great things, but they're all going to be a bit fked if we haven't got the space to live in.

To correct one of your points, though, it isn't necessary for the population to grow in order for the economy to grow. Setting aside productivity improvements and so forth, you could get economic growth from the same level of population by getting a higher percentage of that population to contribute.

Which rather does bring me back to the notion of cutting benefits as a desirable approach.

I had considered that, about growth vs population... I guess it means relative growth, which is why Germany won't grow as fast because although they're richer there's less of them.

Although, in relation to space, we can always go up. We just need to stop being so squeamish about tall buildings. That's one thing the 60s ruined...

[cazzer]

F93 said:

Hitler being an exception to the rule.

But people are surely a lot more intelligent (okay, perhaps not that much) now and I doubt that anyone would get elected who'd ruin the country beyond repair....

You think that? Really?

You think the german populace was thick in 1938?
Or did a charismatic leader tell them what they wanted to hear?

Don't ever believe it couldn't happen again.

[Dick_Phallus]

The UK with another 10 million people would be unbearable. The standard of living would decline and emigrating to the U.S/Australia will become an increasingly attractive option for skilled workers. Whether those countries would be happy is another issue though...

[KANEIT]

Dick_Phallus said:

The UK with another 10 million people would be unbearable. The standard of living would decline and emigrating to the U.S/Australia will become an increasingly attractive option for skilled workers. Whether those countries would be happy is another issue though...

Really? Why?

[F93]

cazzer said:

F93 said:

Hitler being an exception to the rule.

But people are surely a lot more intelligent (okay, perhaps not that much) now and I doubt that anyone would get elected who'd ruin the country beyond repair....

You think that? Really?

You think the german populace was thick in 1938?
Or did a charismatic leader tell them what they wanted to hear?

Don't ever believe it couldn't happen again.

I don't think it in a rigid way... I guess what I mean is that, people won't vote for another Hitler because he may come across as a Hitler-esque person, whereas in the 1930s, Hitler could only get better... plus the internet would leak things out...

Naturally, anything's possible, but I don't think it's likely, at least in Britain. I mean, who in British history was famously a bit too heavy handed? Charles the first. I guess it seems that in the UK we get rid of people we don't like ruling us... but of course, now, just like the Romans, people languish around and forget about liberalism, because Corry's on!
But, that's another discussion I guess.

[F93]

Dick_Phallus said:

The UK with another 10 million people would be unbearable. The standard of living would decline and emigrating to the U.S/Australia will become an increasingly attractive option for skilled workers. Whether those countries would be happy is another issue though...

How will it be miserable? The economy will have doubled in size, but the population will be only 70 million. Only Americans will be richer than us per capita (save for small countries like Bermuda). Naturally, you can't measure happiness but everyone will be richer than they are now.

[thinfourth2]

Eastenders will still be going but it will be in super HD 3D vision but somehow everything will still look grey.

[Dick_Phallus]

KANEIT said:

Dick_Phallus said:

The UK with another 10 million people would be unbearable. The standard of living would decline and emigrating to the U.S/Australia will become an increasingly attractive option for skilled workers. Whether those countries would be happy is another issue though...

Really? Why?

Well, people like space. One of the biggest problem with the U.K is that it's so crowded it's very hard to live far away from the dregs of society and all of the negative things that go with them.

[F93]

Space is available. How on earth do you think Japan functions?

Build up. People won't like it, and moan and moan, but what else?

Tell people to go away? No, that isn't going to happen.

Build outwards? No, we need the countryside.

Build upwards? It works, but 'ohhh, no! it'll be like the tower blocks all over again!!! Nowhere has it worked at all ever!!!'

Oh, look at Manhattan/Tokyo. They function perfectly well with masses of tall buildings.

[Dick_Phallus]

F93 said:

Space is available. How on earth do you think Japan functions?

Build up. People won't like it, and moan and moan, but what else?

Tell people to go away? No, that isn't going to happen.

Build outwards? No, we need the countryside.

Build upwards? It works, but 'ohhh, no! it'll be like the tower blocks all over again!!! Nowhere has it worked at all ever!!!'

Oh, look at Manhattan/Tokyo. They function perfectly well with masses of tall buildings.

I'd imagine that culturally they might view personal space differently. I admit I'm getting out of my depth knowledge wise here but don't many Eastern cultures put much greater importance on 'the greater good' than we do in the West where it's all about individual attainment?

[F93]

That's a good point. its only Western cultures that care for the individual. But then, New York is a good case of it all working.

1.5 Million people on Manhattan, and they all just get along fine. There is even a sense of community, it's just thinly spread over many people, rather than deep in the hearts of a few.

Same for London in a way.