self-driving cars - never gonna happen

[isee]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-11508351

Was just reading this article

[quote]
But he pointed to figures from the World Health Organization which show that more than 1.2 million people are killed each year on the roads, and said that number could and should be reduced.

"We believe our technology has the potential to cut that number, perhaps by as much as half.

[/quote]

simply because even if the overall number of deaths is cut by 50%, the other 50% will be taking the manufacturers to court until the revenue becomes less than damage payouts.

[kambites]

Well, it sort of already is happening. Cars can already control throttle and brake to keep their distance from the car in front and can work out when they're leaving their lane to warn the driver. I suspect cars could already drive better than people on the motorway with relatively little modification.

I don't think it will be long before manufacturers can build cars that can drive themselves, the question is whether they will be allowed to. I suspect that the onus of responsibility will always remain with the "driver".

[TommyBuoy]

It is completely plausable for self driving 'cars' to be produced if enough money is thrown at it.

I reckon it's like winter tyres cutting all the extra wintertime crashes - it'll only work if everyone has a self drive car - if not you're just a sitting duck!

PLus the point already mentioned - if the self drive fails then there are going to be some hefty compensation claims.

[OwenK]

The way that robot cars would work best is if all the cars on a given road can wirelessly communicate with each other. That way they can collectively come up with strategies to avoid congestion, can alert approaching cars if there is an accident or obstruction ahead, etc. Without the communication aspect, I don't know if they can ever be as good as a human CAN be (although, in reality, probably better than most people). Driving requires so much forward planning that an automated system might struggle with - if it's just reacting to stimulus from the outside world.

[Parrot of Doom]

Robot cars on a motorway would be excellent. Traffic jams would be much reduced, perhaps even (stop-start) eliminated.

[isee]

As teh poster above said, communication is key and it won't be long before car manufacturers come up with a single standard, but I just don't see it happening even if it promised to reduce the deaths by 99%.

And taking the winter tyre analogy a bit further, what do you do with people ho don't want an automated car, or want a "manual" car as a weekend toy?

Lastly, if all cars were to be automated, how will the governemnts carry on making money?

[Petrolhead_Rich]

kambites said:

Well, it sort of already is happening. Cars can already control throttle and brake to keep their distance from the car in front and can work out when they're leaving their lane to warn the driver.Pleasure the female driver. I suspect cars could already drive better than people on the motorway with relatively little modification.

I don't think it will be long before manufacturers can build cars that can drive themselves, the question is whether they will be allowed to. I suspect that the onus of responsibility will always remain with the "driver".

EFA

[Munter]

isee said:

As teh poster above said, communication is key and it won't be long before car manufacturers come up with a single standard, but I just don't see it happening even if it promised to reduce the deaths by 99%.

And taking the winter tyre analogy a bit further, what do you do with people ho don't want an automated car, or want a "manual" car as a weekend toy?

Lastly, if all cars were to be automated, how will the governemnts carry on making money?

Err... they already worked out the standard. It's based on standard Wi-Fi equipment, and enables car-car communication, and car-"other" communication (adverts/directions etc). All done and ready to go.

http://www.network-on-wheels.de/vision.html

Edited by Munter on Monday 11th October 09:26

[paul.deitch]

isee said:

self-driving cars - never gonna happen

Haha - that's what "they" said about fast trains, flying, submarines, and going to the moon. Might just happen tho' after you have expired your last breath.

[otolith]

There are already self-driving track cars:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huq44PvZfak

[Munter]

otolith said:

There are already self-driving track cars:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huq44PvZfak

Add in the work done by these guys (now taken out of public view....)
http://www.darpa.mil/grandchallenge/index.asp

[thinfourth2]

The tech to do self driving cars is there

Is the will or agreement to make there i'm not so sure about

[TheEnd]

otolith said:

There are already self-driving track cars:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huq44PvZfak

Ferrari have a similar system in F1, where they can control their cars from a radio link in the pits.

[BarnatosGhost]

All drivers globally should have to pledge that they don't believe in Reincarnation, fate or heaven. That should keep at least a few lemmings off the statistics.

[clonmult]

Munter said:

otolith said:

There are already self-driving track cars:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huq44PvZfak

Add in the work done by these guys (now taken out of public view....)
http://www.darpa.mil/grandchallenge/index.asp

And some of the guys on those Darpa challenges are now employed by google, and as a result, the products are actually in use, on the streets. Driverless cars. Now.

http://jalopnik.com/5660478/video-googles-secret-d...

So, to say its not gonna happen, when it has already happened .... well, its just wrong.

[ctallchris]

TommyBuoy said:

It is completely plausable for self driving 'cars' to be produced if enough money is thrown at it.

I reckon it's like winter tyres cutting all the extra wintertime crashes - it'll only work if everyone has a self drive car - if not you're just a sitting duck!

PLus the point already mentioned - if the self drive fails then there are going to be some hefty compensation claims.

I'm not sure how having a robot driving your car would make you a sitting duck. The google cars have 360 degree vision and faster reaction and relative speed judging ability than any human driver and they are still prototypes. i can see them being much better at avoiding accidents and therefore being fully compatable with human drivers.

I cna see people buying them to commute into work. It will be a long time before every car is robotic. There will be some benifits (lighter cars and better traffic flow) when all cars are automated but at the moment I would be happy to be able to play gran turismo 5 on my way into work

[Petrolhead_Rich]

It already is, on the Road, not just test tracks!!

was rear ended once in 140,000miles of driving!

http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/TECH/innovation/10/11/...

the article said:

Optimistic projections put this technology at least eight years away from market

Edited by Petrolhead_Rich on Monday 11th October 14:56

[Munter]

carmonk is going to have a stroke reading this.

http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...

carmonk said:

Munter said:

Considering it's been demonstrated.... I'd say you're wrong.

We no longer need drivers in cars. Assuming we're prepared to pay hundreds of thousands of pounds per car...

No, you are wrong, nothing of the sort has been demonstrated. We are not a single percentage point towards creating a car that could drive itself safely on the roads today. The cost is irrelevant, the technology is simply not there.

[clonmult]

Petrolhead_Rich said:

It already is, on the Road, not just test tracks!!

was rear ended once in 140,000miles of driving!

http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/TECH/innovation/10/11/...

the article said:

Optimistic projections put this technology at least eight years away from market

Edited by Petrolhead_Rich on Monday 11th October 14:56

And that accident was caused by the other driver ....

[ctallchris]

Gaz. said:

They have the tech to make this work in theory BUT the liability and practicalities are huge hurdles.

Not only that but such a system would need to have multiple redundancies incase of failure, as would many other components of the car. Think of all those cars with 'electical gremlins' on things that are crushingly simple- like the emmisions sensor on the VAG 1.8T for example. Actually after owning a mkiv VW Golf the idea that VW might or could make a self drive car chills me to the core.

Also look at commercial aircraft, they use autopilot for cruising but not for take-off and landing where 94% of accidents occur despite pilot/crew error being responsible for over 60% of air crashes.

Actually they do use autopilot for take off and landing in the majority of cases now and have done for the last 10 years. They still have to land manually every few landings because otherwise pilots would get out of practice.

Multiple backup systems will likely include the driver for a number of years. It will probably be a few years before someone wins a court case where a police officer pulls someone for driving without due care because they are reading a newspaper and the court rules that he was driving safely because the autopilot was on.