Crash safety vs probability of crashing
Discussion
Does any body in the UK (and indeed other countries) publish statistics that look at the total number of car journeys undertaken in a year against the number of serious accidents in the same period?
I guess there would be debate over what constitutes 'serious' but the meaning for the purpose of my question would be that the accident is severe enough that the crash safety of a car contributes to protecting the vehicles' occupants.
Crash safety has in recent years been one of the biggest influences on car design so it would be interesting to see a measure of probability of a person actually needing all that crash protection compared to the average number of journeys undertaken in a car each year.
Obviously some people don't care about the probability and just want the safest transport possible, but others either can't afford the newest, safest cars or they don't treat crash protection as such a high priority (e.g. daily drivers of Caterhams and classics, and many of those bemoaning the weight/size/styling of new cars like the 1-series M!).
I guess there would be debate over what constitutes 'serious' but the meaning for the purpose of my question would be that the accident is severe enough that the crash safety of a car contributes to protecting the vehicles' occupants.
Crash safety has in recent years been one of the biggest influences on car design so it would be interesting to see a measure of probability of a person actually needing all that crash protection compared to the average number of journeys undertaken in a car each year.
Obviously some people don't care about the probability and just want the safest transport possible, but others either can't afford the newest, safest cars or they don't treat crash protection as such a high priority (e.g. daily drivers of Caterhams and classics, and many of those bemoaning the weight/size/styling of new cars like the 1-series M!).
The number of deaths on the road is background noise when you consider the number of miles travelled. It will never get much lower. Take out the drunk, drugged, f
kwits and those unfortunate enough to hit a deer (20-30 die per year doing this) and there won't be many left.
kwits and those unfortunate enough to hit a deer (20-30 die per year doing this) and there won't be many left.Edited by anonymous-user on Friday 15th October 10:43
This is something that's always interested me. My girlfriend's Yaris has airbags, a good NCAP rating etc, yet the chance of it avoiding an accident at 70mph is far less than in my Elise. It's just that if I did actually hit something I'd rather be in the Yaris!
I think NCAP ratings should include a moose test, a timed full stop from 70mph and other such things.
I think NCAP ratings should include a moose test, a timed full stop from 70mph and other such things.
How would you measure the number of journeys travelled each year???
Rough Guess:
Average person 30,000miles per annum?
40,000 serious road accidents in the UK every year Source
31,035,791 cars on British roads Source
call it 31 million cars, multiplied by the miles travelled = 930,000,000,000 miles travelled Divided by the number of "Serious RTC's" = 1 in 23,250,000 chance of being involved in a "Serious" Road Traffic Collision.
If my maths, sources and guestimate of annual mileage is correct?!
Rough Guess:
Average person 30,000miles per annum?
40,000 serious road accidents in the UK every year Source
31,035,791 cars on British roads Source
call it 31 million cars, multiplied by the miles travelled = 930,000,000,000 miles travelled Divided by the number of "Serious RTC's" = 1 in 23,250,000 chance of being involved in a "Serious" Road Traffic Collision.
If my maths, sources and guestimate of annual mileage is correct?!
Petrolhead_Rich said:
How would you measure the number of journeys travelled each year???
Rough Guess:
Average person 30,000miles per annum?
40,000 serious road accidents in the UK every year Source
31,035,791 cars on British roads Source
call it 31 million cars, multiplied by the miles travelled = 930,000,000,000 miles travelled Divided by the number of "Serious RTC's" = 1 in 23,250,000 chance of being involved in a "Serious" Road Traffic Collision.
If my maths, sources and guestimate of annual mileage is correct?!
I think your 30K annual mileage is about four times overestimated.Rough Guess:
Average person 30,000miles per annum?
40,000 serious road accidents in the UK every year Source
31,035,791 cars on British roads Source
call it 31 million cars, multiplied by the miles travelled = 930,000,000,000 miles travelled Divided by the number of "Serious RTC's" = 1 in 23,250,000 chance of being involved in a "Serious" Road Traffic Collision.
If my maths, sources and guestimate of annual mileage is correct?!
Most peoples average is more like 8k.
This also means less experience behind the wheel.
Someone doing big mileage is likely to have more exposure to potential accidents but also be better equipped to deal with tricky situations.
Someone in say a sports car is in theory more likely to expose themselves to greater risk, but is likely to be more likely to be able to deal with that risk better and the car is likely to have better brakes/handling to deal with it.
Someone enjoying high performance cars is more likely to keep their car in good condition, what's the higher risk a high speed driver in a well maintained car or an old woman in a yaris doing 3k a year on bald tyres.
This also means less experience behind the wheel.
Someone doing big mileage is likely to have more exposure to potential accidents but also be better equipped to deal with tricky situations.
Someone in say a sports car is in theory more likely to expose themselves to greater risk, but is likely to be more likely to be able to deal with that risk better and the car is likely to have better brakes/handling to deal with it.
Someone enjoying high performance cars is more likely to keep their car in good condition, what's the higher risk a high speed driver in a well maintained car or an old woman in a yaris doing 3k a year on bald tyres.
wildoliver said:
Someone enjoying high performance cars is more likely to keep their car in good condition, what's the higher risk a high speed driver in a well maintained car or an old woman in a yaris doing 3k a year on bald tyres.
You only have to look at their (statistically generated) insurance premiums to answer that question. slipstream 1985 said:
Patrick Bateman said:
Yeah average annual mileage ain't gonna be near 30k.
i thought hat to start with but then lorries do how many 1000s of miles per month?dave
kambites said:
wildoliver said:
Someone enjoying high performance cars is more likely to keep their car in good condition, what's the higher risk a high speed driver in a well maintained car or an old woman in a yaris doing 3k a year on bald tyres.
You only have to look at their (statistically generated) insurance premiums to answer that question. But it says little about the "safety" of their driving. More people will have to "dodge" the old lady doing unexpected manoeuvres, than the man in his sports car.
slipstream 1985 said:
Patrick Bateman said:
Yeah average annual mileage ain't gonna be near 30k.
i thought hat to start with but then lorries do how many 1000s of miles per month?Plus Delivery Vans...
Probably more than 30k!!!
Source said:
When at work (driving the BIG trucks), I turn roughly 175,000 miles per year
Source
Source
Source said:
Source
Small cars (e.g. Renault Clio, Toyota Yaris, etc) Glass’s found that the average annual mileage for one- to three-year-old cars from this sector was 8,500 miles. Diesel cars from this sector do not clock up the high mileages covered by larger diesel vehicles. Glass’s analysis shows that the overall average annual mileage for diesel variants was 10,100 miles.
Lower-medium cars (e.g. Ford Focus, Vauxhall Astra, etc) One- to three-year-old cars from this sector covered, on average, 11,200 miles each year. This increased significantly for diesel variants, to 15,300 miles per year.
Upper-medium cars (e.g. Toyota Avensis, Audi A4, etc) One- to three-year-old upper-medium cars averaged 16,400 miles each year – the highest of any car sector in the UK. This is not surprising given that company fleets use this size of car quite extensively for business purposes. The mileage of one-year-old examples was significantly lower, at 11,400 miles. Upper-medium diesel variants cover the highest annual mileage of all sectors, averaging 18,100 miles.
Large cars (e.g. Vauxhall Omega, BMW 5 Series, etc) The average mileage for one- to three-year-old large cars was 15,900 miles. The mileage of one-year-old examples was considerably lower, at 10,900 miles. Diesel mileage is again higher, at 17,100 per annum for one- to three-year-olds, rising to 21,500 for three- to six-year old examples.
Coupés and convertibles (e.g. Mercedes-Benz CLK, Peugeot 307 CC, etc) The average annual mileage for one- to three-year-old petrol and diesel cars from this sector was 11,600 miles.
MPVs (Renault Mégane Scenic, Ford Galaxy, etc) Grouping compact and full-sized MPVs together, the average annual mileage for cars up to three-years-old was 9,700 miles. One-year-old examples covered an even lower average of 8,700 miles, while diesel versions across the whole age range averaged 14,800 miles per annum.
4x4s (e.g. Honda HRV, Range Rover, etc) The average annual mileage for vehicles in the 4x4 segment up to three-years-old was 12,400 miles, rising to 13,600 miles for diesel examples.
Small cars (e.g. Renault Clio, Toyota Yaris, etc) Glass’s found that the average annual mileage for one- to three-year-old cars from this sector was 8,500 miles. Diesel cars from this sector do not clock up the high mileages covered by larger diesel vehicles. Glass’s analysis shows that the overall average annual mileage for diesel variants was 10,100 miles.
Lower-medium cars (e.g. Ford Focus, Vauxhall Astra, etc) One- to three-year-old cars from this sector covered, on average, 11,200 miles each year. This increased significantly for diesel variants, to 15,300 miles per year.
Upper-medium cars (e.g. Toyota Avensis, Audi A4, etc) One- to three-year-old upper-medium cars averaged 16,400 miles each year – the highest of any car sector in the UK. This is not surprising given that company fleets use this size of car quite extensively for business purposes. The mileage of one-year-old examples was significantly lower, at 11,400 miles. Upper-medium diesel variants cover the highest annual mileage of all sectors, averaging 18,100 miles.
Large cars (e.g. Vauxhall Omega, BMW 5 Series, etc) The average mileage for one- to three-year-old large cars was 15,900 miles. The mileage of one-year-old examples was considerably lower, at 10,900 miles. Diesel mileage is again higher, at 17,100 per annum for one- to three-year-olds, rising to 21,500 for three- to six-year old examples.
Coupés and convertibles (e.g. Mercedes-Benz CLK, Peugeot 307 CC, etc) The average annual mileage for one- to three-year-old petrol and diesel cars from this sector was 11,600 miles.
MPVs (Renault Mégane Scenic, Ford Galaxy, etc) Grouping compact and full-sized MPVs together, the average annual mileage for cars up to three-years-old was 9,700 miles. One-year-old examples covered an even lower average of 8,700 miles, while diesel versions across the whole age range averaged 14,800 miles per annum.
4x4s (e.g. Honda HRV, Range Rover, etc) The average annual mileage for vehicles in the 4x4 segment up to three-years-old was 12,400 miles, rising to 13,600 miles for diesel examples.
Logic and neuroses are not bedfellowes in this instance.
It is a bit like toothpaste or detergant. Car manufacturers need a new 'trick' to unveil every time they present a new car, and if it wasn't incremental improvements in things like safety then god forbid, the price may have to come down.
The fleet market may also vote with their wallet on a H+S point of view and as a result everyone is frightened to put their head above the parapet and build a modern 'unsafe' car
then you have little neurotic mummy who wants the absolute best for her little soldier and screw how many hours overtime her husband has to do down t'pit.....
and as you have developed the technology already to pander to the above stakeholders, you may as well roll it out to the rest of the range to get the unit cost down.
then there is the tooth sucking marketing benefit of appealing to people's inner fears about death and destruction.
It's a pretty compelling argument in favour of safety bits really isn't it
It really depends on what you want out of cars really, there are probably millions of people who think that having incrementally better handling over bog standard is a waste of development money and couldn't care less if a car handled like an absolute bag of crap (my mom for example in her SLK!!!)
Still, that's what the specialist car market is there to cater for.
Greg
It is a bit like toothpaste or detergant. Car manufacturers need a new 'trick' to unveil every time they present a new car, and if it wasn't incremental improvements in things like safety then god forbid, the price may have to come down.
The fleet market may also vote with their wallet on a H+S point of view and as a result everyone is frightened to put their head above the parapet and build a modern 'unsafe' car
then you have little neurotic mummy who wants the absolute best for her little soldier and screw how many hours overtime her husband has to do down t'pit.....
and as you have developed the technology already to pander to the above stakeholders, you may as well roll it out to the rest of the range to get the unit cost down.
then there is the tooth sucking marketing benefit of appealing to people's inner fears about death and destruction.
It's a pretty compelling argument in favour of safety bits really isn't it
It really depends on what you want out of cars really, there are probably millions of people who think that having incrementally better handling over bog standard is a waste of development money and couldn't care less if a car handled like an absolute bag of crap (my mom for example in her SLK!!!)
Still, that's what the specialist car market is there to cater for.
Greg
braddo said:
Does any body in the UK (and indeed other countries) publish statistics that look at the total number of car journeys undertaken in a year against the number of serious accidents in the same period?
It's not published, but the data is there. The best way to decide whether one scenario is more dangerous than the other is to get 2 insurance quotes whilst keeping all other details identical.Serious accidents are typically much more expensive than minor accidents. The only thing this method doesn't distinguish between is whether you are likely to have 1 serious or 10 minor accidents as they might cost the same.
randlemarcus said:
Petrolhead_Rich said:
How would you measure the number of journeys travelled each year???
Rough Guess:
Average person 30,000miles per annum?
40,000 serious road accidents in the UK every year Source
31,035,791 cars on British roads Source
call it 31 million cars, multiplied by the miles travelled = 930,000,000,000 miles travelled Divided by the number of "Serious RTC's" = 1 in 23,250,000 chance of being involved in a "Serious" Road Traffic Collision.
If my maths, sources and guestimate of annual mileage is correct?!
I think your 30K annual mileage is about four times overestimated.Rough Guess:
Average person 30,000miles per annum?
40,000 serious road accidents in the UK every year Source
31,035,791 cars on British roads Source
call it 31 million cars, multiplied by the miles travelled = 930,000,000,000 miles travelled Divided by the number of "Serious RTC's" = 1 in 23,250,000 chance of being involved in a "Serious" Road Traffic Collision.
If my maths, sources and guestimate of annual mileage is correct?!
slipstream 1985 said:
Patrick Bateman said:
Yeah average annual mileage ain't gonna be near 30k.
i thought hat to start with but then lorries do how many 1000s of miles per month?mat205125 said:
randlemarcus said:
Petrolhead_Rich said:
How would you measure the number of journeys travelled each year???
Rough Guess:
Average person 30,000miles per annum?
40,000 serious road accidents in the UK every year Source
31,035,791 cars on British roads Source
call it 31 million cars, multiplied by the miles travelled = 930,000,000,000 miles travelled Divided by the number of "Serious RTC's" = 1 in 23,250,000 chance of being involved in a "Serious" Road Traffic Collision.
If my maths, sources and guestimate of annual mileage is correct?!
I think your 30K annual mileage is about four times overestimated.Rough Guess:
Average person 30,000miles per annum?
40,000 serious road accidents in the UK every year Source
31,035,791 cars on British roads Source
call it 31 million cars, multiplied by the miles travelled = 930,000,000,000 miles travelled Divided by the number of "Serious RTC's" = 1 in 23,250,000 chance of being involved in a "Serious" Road Traffic Collision.
If my maths, sources and guestimate of annual mileage is correct?!
slipstream 1985 said:
Patrick Bateman said:
Yeah average annual mileage ain't gonna be near 30k.
i thought hat to start with but then lorries do how many 1000s of miles per month?On a serious note, everyone knows at least one person who has been involved in a serious collision so I would say it isn't worth the risk, if we can build safety into modern cars then thats a bonus that is well worth it.
It's just a shame that seems to be the only focus these days....
Munter said:
More people will have to "dodge" the old lady doing unexpected manoeuvres, than the man in his sports car.
Maybe, but she's less likely to,a) Roll a car full of teenagers into a tree on Saturday night
b) Have a "single vehicle accident" on a country road
c) Mis-judge a high speed overtaking manoevre and have a head-on smash.
Generally the oldsters just bend a bit of metal. Youngsters are the big crash killers. Workers on their way home for the weekend are pretty lethal too - just look at the statistics between 4.00 pm and 7.00 pm on a Friday.
Ozzie Osmond said:
Munter said:
More people will have to "dodge" the old lady doing unexpected manoeuvres, than the man in his sports car.
Maybe, but she's less likely to,a) Roll a car full of teenagers into a tree on Saturday night
b) Have a "single vehicle accident" on a country road
c) Mis-judge a high speed overtaking manoevre and have a head-on smash.
Generally the oldsters just bend a bit of metal. Youngsters are the big crash killers. Workers on their way home for the weekend are pretty lethal too - just look at the statistics between 4.00 pm and 7.00 pm on a Friday.
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