Motoring in 2016....your predictions?

[RDMcG]

Given the number or regulatory,social and technical changes that affect us all, what do you think it looks like five years out?.
My own feeling is...not great.

Here are some obvious thoughts:

(1) High powered non turbo engines disappear.
(BMW, AMG and Porsche have already deep-sixed some of their best engines)

(2) Manual gearboxes finally disappear on new cars

(3) Ultra high-performance tires like the PS cups are banned for road use

(4) All manufacturers have hybrid options, and the four cylinder engine is overwhelmingly the most common on offer. V8s will be very rare.

(5) Pedestrian safety regulations continue to add more requirements. (We are already seeing all the new blunt-nosed designs to meet the clearance requirements)
(6) The autobahns finally get speed limits

(7) Most in-car electronic interfaces will migrate to smart phones so stuff like Nav systems will disappear

(8) There wil be a substantial amount of Chinese- and Indian-made vehicles coming to the West.

Evidently speculative on my part, but interested to hear from PH'rs as to whether the above is nonsense or even vaguely on the mark......

[ewenm]

I'll still be driving the Caterham though.

[ManOpener]

RDMcG said:

(3) Ultra high-performance tires like the PS cups are banned for road use
(7) Most in-car electronic interfaces will migrate to smart phones so stuff like Nav systems will disappear

I dont think either of these will happen. People like their fitted or bought sat-navs and most phone/smartphone nav systems are utter ste.
I also don't see them outlawing high performance tyres. Why would they? Do they cause accidents or do they perform better than other tyres?

[Greenwich Ross]

Even faster cars matched with even less places to drive them.

[Great Pretender]

RDMcG said:

Given the number or regulatory,social and technical changes that affect us all, what do you think it looks like five years out?.
My own feeling is...not great.

Here are some obvious thoughts:

(1) High powered non turbo engines disappear.
(BMW, AMG and Porsche have already deep-sixed some of their best engines)

(2) Manual gearboxes finally disappear on new cars

(3) Ultra high-performance tires like the PS cups are banned for road use

(4) All manufacturers have hybrid options, and the four cylinder engine is overwhelmingly the most common on offer. V8s will be very rare.

(5) Pedestrian safety regulations continue to add more requirements. (We are already seeing all the new blunt-nosed designs to meet the clearance requirements)
(6) The autobahns finally get speed limits

(7) Most in-car electronic interfaces will migrate to smart phones so stuff like Nav systems will disappear

(8) There wil be a substantial amount of Chinese- and Indian-made vehicles coming to the West.

Evidently speculative on my part, but interested to hear from PH'rs as to whether the above is nonsense or even vaguely on the mark......

Sadly I fear you're pretty much spot-on with that assessment

[RDMcG]

Greenwich Ross said:

Even faster cars matched with even less places to drive them.

Of course, there is also to possibility of in-car trackers showing up. Given the growth of the surveillance society there may be no place at all......

[Spurious Device]

ewenm said:

I'll still be driving the Caterham though.

I'll still be driving my Mustang too, it'll be 45years old by then.

[ewenm]

Spurious Device said:

ewenm said:

I'll still be driving the Caterham though.

I'll still be driving my Mustang too, it'll be 45years old by then.

Mine will be 49 by then too

[m444ttb]

Winter Tyres become a legal requirement... ;-)

[V88Dicky]

My daily driver will have moved on to an Almera or perhaps even a Primera. Maybe a nice, one owner 51plate 2.0SE with a single cd changer and wood effect dashboard



I'll still have the Beast for weekends though

[hesnotthemessiah]

I hoping for a Mad Max scenario 'type thing'. Apocalyptic stuff.....with world oil shortages....Government collapses....food shortages due to no transport network.....total break down in law and order.




Oh!...hang about....that would mean no Top Gear! Na scratch that.




Probably just the same as today I guess, only with more crappy drivers.

[The Lukas]

I can see more people turning to bikes as a motoring hobby.

[Bowler]

RDMcG said:

(4).....V8s will be very rare.

But mine will be one of them....

You forgot to mention

(9) Fuel will cost >£2 per litre

(10) The Government will find new and innovative ways to Tax the motorist

[Timberwolf]

2016 isn't that far away... so I don't think any huge changes:

• The car won't be used for running errands anything like the way it was in the 2000s. You can see the beginning of this now with fuel and insurance costs causing people to walk and cycle more - add in the trend towards fewer and more expensive town centre parking spaces, and you can see where that's going. Give it another decade (i.e. 2026) and the private car will be like it was in the sixties; most people will still have one, but it'll be reserved for weekends and holidays.

• Bikes (both pedal cycles and motorbikes) will be a lot more common on the roads.

• The S-class end of the market is likely to have a "motorway" button. One press to handle acceleration, braking and keeping in lane. It'll probably be nannied to the point of throwing a beeping fit if you're not looking out the windscreen, but it will be pretty much self-driving within limited parameters.

• The European mainstream car industry will be just getting in to its "malaise" period - each successive generation will be heavier, more bulkily styled and yet slower and more poorly equipped than the last. This will mirror what happened with the US car industry in the 1970s; the US will be making reasonable cars by then but the stars of the show will be Korea; by the 2020s the Cee'd will be the VW Golf of its day. The "Korea" of then in motoring terms will be, naturally, China.

• Electric powertrains will be readily available but still somewhat niche, the weird option, a little like diesel in the early 1980s.

• An EU-wide crackdown on the modified car industry will be just starting to come into effect. What will be likely by that point is limits on off-the-shelf parts; e.g. off-the-shelf components won't be allowed to increase the noise level or emissions of their intended vehicle fitment by more than 5%. Modifying will still be around to some degree but a lot more expensive than it is now.

• "Pay-as-you-drive" insurance schemes will be common, with traditional mileage allowance based policies prohibitively expensive for the average punter. A saving civil liberties grace - governments will be unable to take any advantage of this as there will be at least three different, completely incompatible systems in use by different insurers. While most such schemes will be merely three different rates for day, rush hour and night driving, we'll be seeing the first insurers offer to save you money by charging you less for taking "low risk" routes and driving in "low risk" areas.

That's my guess, anyway.

Anyone care to remind me in five-and-a-bit years?

Edited by Timberwolf on Wednesday 20th October 23:33