So what will be the real implications of the EU zone failing

[Corsair7]

As per: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11762500

What will be the real implications of a worst case scenario with this - 4 or 5 member states defaulting, needing bail outs etc....? Euro failing etc?

What will actually happen to the economies of Western Europe, how will it impact the wider global economy, what effects will the working man see?

CHeers for sensible answers....

[chris watton]

Well, the Greek prime minister has suggested that the EU countries impliment “carbon dioxide taxes”, to help with the bailouts!

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/janetdaley/10006...

[-Pete-]

I can't see how all these countries can retain the Euro. Either the weakest or the strongest need to revert to their old currencies. The easiest way to do it would be to float each nations' Euro as it's own currency, no more 1:1 exchange rate between Germany and Greece. Allow the markets to decide their relative value. It's going to be carnage, but should strengthen Germany and the strong nations even further.

[chopperR]

fk 'em.

Withdraw from the stty EU, don't give them ANY money towards their bail-outs and teach them that their currency was a st idea and that's why we didn't join in the first place!

We hate to say "we told you so", EU buuuuuuut...

[Andy Zarse]

What will be the real implications of a worst case scenario with this - 4 or 5 member states defaulting, needing bail outs etc....? Euro failing etc?


[/quote]

A return to prosperity one would imagine.

Edited by Andy Zarse on Tuesday 16th November 12:21

[Gargamel]

I don't think they would move for independent Euro's for all member states for both practical and ploitical reasons.

However a two tier system could be put in place quite quickly, at say 75% of tier one value.

The price of this though is likely to be either the EU wishing to take direct control for economic policy or to have some type of lever or control on domestic taxation. Which is why the Irish are fighing hard to refuse the bail out.

The EU want Ireland to take the money, so that as a world currency the EU competes. Ireland don't want the money as regionally it will leave them as the Highest risk within Europe and they will lose inward investment.

Either way RBS and the UK are very highly exposed to any defaults and indeed to further cash calls for the bail out funds.

[Gargamel]

The British postion (amongst the public) has been consistent. You cannot have monetary union without political union following as a natural consequence. Because we don't want political union we have avoided joining the Euro.

Now we can see that even in the medium term, the EU cannot go on without major reform, either of monetary union, or closer/faster steps to political integration.

I think there will be Four Europes emerging from the wreckage

1. Tier One, Monetary Parity, Political union, Northern Europe, Dutch, French, Germans, Austria, etc etc - the full superstate
2. Tier Two, Monetary Union, Euro currency regions

3. EU Trade Partners - Swiss, UK, Denmark, Sweden, Turkey - no currency union, no political union but a happy trading bloc

4. EU 10 - those that want to join and progress through to closer ties.


But as a result of the impending EU currency problems I think for some countries the music will stop and some will pull out of the project

[Jackleman]

Andy Zarse said:

What will be the real implications of a worst case scenario with this - 4 or 5 member states defaulting, needing bail outs etc....? Euro failing etc?

A return to prosperity one would imagine.

Edited by Andy Zarse on Tuesday 16th November 12:21

Deep global recession for a while first!

[hornetrider]

'Ireland and Greece should ditch the Euro'

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/1000...



Looking over the precipice I think.

[Jimbeaux]

The European Common Market seemed to work well. IIRC, that was more of an economic-only alliance, leaving out much of the entanglements saddling the EU today. All IMO of course.

[The Black Flash]

I will laugh.

[Fume troll]

All the Dubliners who used to enjoy comparing their 40 year mortgages on their million euro flats will start crying?

Cheers,

FT.

[loafer123]

Gargamel said:

The British postion (amongst the public) has been consistent. You cannot have monetary union without political union following as a natural consequence. Because we don't want political union we have avoided joining the Euro.

Now we can see that even in the medium term, the EU cannot go on without major reform, either of monetary union, or closer/faster steps to political integration.

I think there will be Four Europes emerging from the wreckage

1. Tier One, Monetary Parity, Political union, Northern Europe, Dutch, French, Germans, Austria, etc etc - the full superstate
2. Tier Two, Monetary Union, Euro currency regions

3. EU Trade Partners - Swiss, UK, Denmark, Sweden, Turkey - no currency union, no political union but a happy trading bloc

4. EU 10 - those that want to join and progress through to closer ties.


But as a result of the impending EU currency problems I think for some countries the music will stop and some will pull out of the project

Interesting.

I can't see political union between Germany and France, but I am more intrigued by the distinction between Monetary Parity and Monetary Union if both have Euros...could you explain a bit more, please?

[-Pete-]

Can we have some links to the "Celtic Tiger" I'm going to make a fortune buying off-plan and renting threads please?

[Flintstone]

Whole new build estates in Ireland vacant and unsold apparently.


Ooooops.

[Dogwatch]

Flintstone said:

Whole new build estates in Ireland vacant and unsold apparently.


Ooooops.

Pity they can't ship 'em over here.

[-Pete-]

Yeah, to Sheffield or Leeds or somewhere with no vacant flats...