Express campaign - will the EU collapse?

[don4l]

Yesterday, the Daily Express launched its campaign the get Britain out of the EU. They claim that 99% of the public support them.

http://www.express.co.uk/web/europecrusade

With all the issues surrounding the PIIGS, I suspect that support for the European Project must be at an all time low. On the one hand, the German public resent funding the PIIGS profligacy, and on the other hand, the Irish and Greek citizens resent the austerity that is being forced on them.

In yesterday's Express Daniel Hannan claims that the single market gains €120bn but that the regulatory costs are a whopping €600bn!

So, are we seeing the start of the demise of the EU?


Don
--

[Spiritual_Beggar]

As with most things to do with the EU, what the citizens of the nations think is irrelevant.

The EU is not a democracy. They do what they please.......it's the 'Self Preservation Society'.

[BeeRoad]

They won't jump off the gravy train that easily I'm afraid. Nothing short of a wholesale financial meltdown will kill the EU.

[chris watton]

BeeRoad said:

They won't jump off the gravy train that easily I'm afraid. Nothing short of a wholesale financial meltdown will kill the EU.

true, but surely there will be a 'tipping point', when each of the EU country's populations realise that they're being squeezed not only from their own governments, but the EU government too. I suspect that when enough realise that the taxes they pay directly contribute to the EU scumbag gravy trainer's personal wealth and power, to the detriment of theirs (ours), bloodletting will not be far behind.

[don4l]

BeeRoad said:

They won't jump off the gravy train that easily I'm afraid. Nothing short of a wholesale financial meltdown will kill the EU.

We do seem to be heading for meltdown. The markets don't believe Ireland's rescue package will work. Portuguese and Spanish bond yields are both on the up.

The big elephant in the European living room is the fact that there isn't enough money in the rescue plans to cover the problems. I don't think that the German public will support another bailout. So a wholesale meltdown is on the cards.


Don
--
ETA missing word

Edited by don4l on Friday 26th November 16:43

[dbdb]

don4l said:

Yesterday, the Daily Express launched its campaign the get Britain out of the EU. They claim that 99% of the public support them.

http://www.express.co.uk/web/europecrusade

With all the issues surrounding the PIIGS, I suspect that support for the European Project must be at an all time low. On the one hand, the German public resent funding the PIIGS profligacy, and on the other hand, the Irish and Greek citizens resent the austerity that is being forced on them.

In yesterday's Express Daniel Hannan claims that the single market gains €120bn but that the regulatory costs are a whopping €600bn!

So, are we seeing the start of the demise of the EU?


Don
--

I don't believe this is the beginning of the end for the EU, though it is undoubtedly a difficult time. I certainly hope my optimism is not misplaced.

The Daily Express' claim that 99% of the public want withdrawl from the EU is laughable. Though I could believe 99% of Express readers may dream of this, the newspaper's readership is a self selecting group whose members do not always reflect mainstream opinion - just like Pistonheads, it is very Eurosceptic.

The artical cites opinion as fact: the two are not the same. Nothing here is definitive.

[Mark Benson]

dbdb said:

The Daily Express' claim that 99% of the public want withdrawl from the EU is laughable.

True, but how do you think the British public would vote if we were ever to have a referendum?

I can't see the majority voting to stay in, can you?

[Silver993tt]

dbdb said:

don4l said:

Yesterday, the Daily Express launched its campaign the get Britain out of the EU. They claim that 99% of the public support them.

http://www.express.co.uk/web/europecrusade

With all the issues surrounding the PIIGS, I suspect that support for the European Project must be at an all time low. On the one hand, the German public resent funding the PIIGS profligacy, and on the other hand, the Irish and Greek citizens resent the austerity that is being forced on them.

In yesterday's Express Daniel Hannan claims that the single market gains €120bn but that the regulatory costs are a whopping €600bn!

So, are we seeing the start of the demise of the EU?


Don
--

I don't believe this is the beginning of the end for the EU, though it is undoubtedly a difficult time. I certainly hope my optimism is not misplaced.

The Daily Express' claim that 99% of the public want withdrawl from the EU is laughable. Though I could believe 99% of Express readers may dream of this, the newspaper's readership is a self selecting group whose members do not always reflect mainstream opinion - just like Pistonheads, it is very Eurosceptic.

The artical cites opinion as fact: the two are not the same. Nothing here is definitive.

I agree. Firstly it's the Daily Express which has always been against anything to do with continental Europe, so zero credibility there. Secondly, everything needs to be looked at in perspective. It's the first time teh EU has had any issues and the whole point of the 'club' of countries is not only to boost trade, it's also to support each other when there are issues. This is exactly what is happening.

Most of the critics have never lived or done any business on a regular basis within the EU and that shows in many of the 'fear of the unknown' comments. There are laughable comments regarding the demise of the Euro because 'it has weakened so much' over the last couple of weeks. Well, it's still 10% higher on USD compared to June and still 25% higher on the £ compared to 3 years ago.

The EU is going through its first headache, not it's first coronary otherwise you would have seen no support for Greece or Ireland, which is exactly what the EU is there to provide in such circumstances.

Edited by Silver993tt on Friday 26th November 16:44

[don4l]

Silver993tt said:

dbdb said:

don4l said:

Yesterday, the Daily Express launched its campaign the get Britain out of the EU. They claim that 99% of the public support them.

http://www.express.co.uk/web/europecrusade

With all the issues surrounding the PIIGS, I suspect that support for the European Project must be at an all time low. On the one hand, the German public resent funding the PIIGS profligacy, and on the other hand, the Irish and Greek citizens resent the austerity that is being forced on them.

In yesterday's Express Daniel Hannan claims that the single market gains €120bn but that the regulatory costs are a whopping €600bn!

So, are we seeing the start of the demise of the EU?


Don
--

I don't believe this is the beginning of the end for the EU, though it is undoubtedly a difficult time. I certainly hope my optimism is not misplaced.

The Daily Express' claim that 99% of the public want withdrawl from the EU is laughable. Though I could believe 99% of Express readers may dream of this, the newspaper's readership is a self selecting group whose members do not always reflect mainstream opinion - just like Pistonheads, it is very Eurosceptic.

The artical cites opinion as fact: the two are not the same. Nothing here is definitive.

I agree. Firstly it's the Daily Express which has always been against anything to do with continental Europe, so zero credibility there. Also, everything needs to be looked at in perspective. It's the first time teh EU has had any issues and the whole point of the 'club' of countries is not only to boost trade, it's also to support each other when there are issues. This is exactly what is happening.

Most of the critics have never lived or done any business on a regular basis within the EU and that shows in many of the 'fear of the unknown' comments. There are laughable comments regarding the demise of the Euro because 'it has weakened so much' over the last couple of weeks. Well, it's still 10% higher on USD compared to June and still 25% higher on the £ compared to 3 years ago.

The EU is going through its first headache, not it's first coronary otherwise you would have seen no support for Greece or Ireland, which is exactly what the EU is there to provide in such circumstances.

I agree with the comments about the "99%". However, I do think that most of the UK population would vote to leave if asked now.

I do a lot of buisness both inside the EU, and with the rest of the world. There isn't much difference, if the truth be told.

On the export side, you just have to put an extra invoice with the goods for most countries.

On the import side, there is almost no difference between buying from France and the USA. The only real diference is a couple of percent duty on some items. These days, most of the stuff that we import has no duty applied.

Global trade agreements mean that we are effectively heading for a global free trade area.

Guam said:

The problem is that the Germans will become instantly uncompetitive if it happens as the rest of the more afflicted countries will instantly hit the devalue button imho.

I hadn't thought of that. It does appear that Germany could well be between a rock and a hard place.

Don
--

[Derek Smith]

don4l said:

The problem is that the Germans will become instantly uncompetitive if it happens as the rest of the more afflicted countries will instantly hit the devalue button imho.

I hadn't thought of that. It does appear that Germany could well be between a rock and a hard place.

Don
--

It would appear that Germany's situation is the one that matters. If they feel it is worth the sacrifice then it will continue. Germany has some baggage that perhaps gives them less of a free choice.

The situation might have a positive effect though. There might well be a step back from unification and return to the original concept/practice of being an open market.

I phoned an aunt of mine to wish her happy birthday a few weeks after the fall of the Berlin wall. She was an intelligent woman with a life-long history fetish. Her husband died early on in WWII so she wasn't an independent reviewer. She said something along the lines of: We've let the lion out of the cage. At the moment it isn't hungry but it will be.

Germany will dominate Europe one way or the other. It might be better doing it through the EU rather than in competition with the rest of us.

[s2art]

Guam said:

The problem is that the Germans will become instantly uncompetitive if it happens as the rest of the more afflicted countries will instantly hit the devalue button imho.

The current situation only really benefits the Germans TBH (hence their willingness to stump up the bailouts) however that has to have a finite life expectancy I would conjecture.

Perhaps the strategy is to allow the markets to adjust to the inevitability well before they trigger it??

Is that true? What is the difference between a devalued currency and keeping the Euro but paying everyone less? (which is the corollary). Individuals will have less to spend on German goods in both circumstances.

[don4l]

s2art said:

Is that true? What is the difference between a devalued currency and keeping the Euro but paying everyone less? (which is the corollary). Individuals will have less to spend on German goods in both circumstances.

Lots of rioting and civil unrest on a much greater scale than we have seen so far.

Don
--

[s2art]

don4l said:

s2art said:

Is that true? What is the difference between a devalued currency and keeping the Euro but paying everyone less? (which is the corollary). Individuals will have less to spend on German goods in both circumstances.

Lots of rioting and civil unrest on a much greater scale than we have seen so far.

Don
--

Well, yes. But I was referring to the impact on Germany and its competitiveness. I see no difference in that aspect if the fringe Euro members get out of the Euro or stay, German exports to those countries will be similar in both circumstances.

[don4l]

s2art said:

don4l said:

s2art said:

Is that true? What is the difference between a devalued currency and keeping the Euro but paying everyone less? (which is the corollary). Individuals will have less to spend on German goods in both circumstances.

Lots of rioting and civil unrest on a much greater scale than we have seen so far.

Don
--

Well, yes. But I was referring to the impact on Germany and its competitiveness. I see no difference in that aspect if the fringe Euro members get out of the Euro or stay, German exports to those countries will be similar in both circumstances.

The PIIGS don't account for a very significant proportion of Germany's export market. Using figures from 2005, Italy accounted for 7% and Spain 5%. Portugal, Greece and Ireland are all less than 2% and don't show up n the radar.

So, it looks like Germany could see a small ( ~2%?? ) drop in exports, but this would be much less painful than another trillion Euro rescue package.

This article sums up the travails of the Euro quite well:-
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/f...

The EEC was established in a time when international trade was difficult. Most countries had high import tarriffs. So the idea of a "free trade area" made a lot of sense.

Nowadays, import duties tend to be between 0% and 4%. A free trade area no longer makes much difference. The single currency makes a bigger difference, but as we are seeing, the single currency is unlikely to survive.

So, if there are not many benefits from the "free trade" side of things, why should we put up with the financial and political costs of EU membership?


Don
--

[davepoth]

Perversely, I think it's more likely that Germany will leave the Euro. The revived Mark will be a strong currency, stronger than the Euro, and will enable Germany to be free of the ECB.

[Silver993tt]

The Euro is still a very strong currency, still 25% up on Sterling over 3 years and still 10% up on the USD since June 2010 despite the 'rough' ride some countries are experiencing. If the Euro as a currency was at such risk (which I certainly don't believe) it would have been dumped over the last year (since the loans to Greece) but it hasn't. As time goes by, periperal economies will strengthen due to the more stringent budgetary controls being brought in. This will make the countries within the Eurozone have a more level playing field in terms of economic efficiencies. It won't happen over night and it was never intended to happen in just a few years. It's a process that will take many 10s of years. That's the whoile point of the EU, to bring in countries with less developed economies, help them develop and then they become strong trading/export partners. Having a single currency makes business between these countries much easier to perform because it eliminates the huge swings in currency exchanges which can wipe out profits very quickly, a prime example being USD/YEN/GBP.

[mrmaggit]

dbdb said:

don4l said:

Yesterday, the Daily Express launched its campaign the get Britain out of the EU. They claim that 99% of the public support them.

http://www.express.co.uk/web/europecrusade

With all the issues surrounding the PIIGS, I suspect that support for the European Project must be at an all time low. On the one hand, the German public resent funding the PIIGS profligacy, and on the other hand, the Irish and Greek citizens resent the austerity that is being forced on them.

In yesterday's Express Daniel Hannan claims that the single market gains €120bn but that the regulatory costs are a whopping €600bn!

So, are we seeing the start of the demise of the EU?


Don
--

I don't believe this is the beginning of the end for the EU, though it is undoubtedly a difficult time. I certainly hope my optimism is not misplaced.

The Daily Express' claim that 99% of the public want withdrawl from the EU is laughable. Though I could believe 99% of Express readers may dream of this, the newspaper's readership is a self selecting group whose members do not always reflect mainstream opinion - just like Pistonheads, it is very Eurosceptic.

The artical cites opinion as fact: the two are not the same. Nothing here is definitive.

Why do people always state the general opinions of a fairly large group of people (in this case two groups) are never representative of the general populous? Especially when Europe and the EU are being discussed?

Voice your own opinions, by all means, but don't negate others just because you don't agree.

[turbobloke]

99% of tens of thousands of people is a powerful message but not likely to be repeated in the country at large - however a clear majority for leaving the EU would be a foregone conclusion if such a refrendum was ever held even after the left had lied about the consequences. As others have indicated, the EU political gravy train has room for plenty more snouts yet, all at our expense, so euroturkeys and hatchlings won't vote for Christmas.

[davepoth]

Silver993tt said:

The Euro is still a very strong currency, still 25% up on Sterling over 3 years and still 10% up on the USD since June 2010 despite the 'rough' ride some countries are experiencing. If the Euro as a currency was at such risk (which I certainly don't believe) it would have been dumped over the last year (since the loans to Greece) but it hasn't. As time goes by, periperal economies will strengthen due to the more stringent budgetary controls being brought in. This will make the countries within the Eurozone have a more level playing field in terms of economic efficiencies. It won't happen over night and it was never intended to happen in just a few years. It's a process that will take many 10s of years. That's the whoile point of the EU, to bring in countries with less developed economies, help them develop and then they become strong trading/export partners. Having a single currency makes business between these countries much easier to perform because it eliminates the huge swings in currency exchanges which can wipe out profits very quickly, a prime example being USD/YEN/GBP.

No, the point of the EU is to stop another European war. But that's a story for another day. The Euro is only strong because of Germany, all of the other members have broken and continue to break the rules (Greece's situation became worse after entry into the Euro rather than better) and while Germany continues to be a strong positive balance sheet nation, making up a major part of the Eurozone, the ECB is going to find it very difficult to set interest rates to suit Germany and the PIIGS(B).

In terms of stable exchange rates, look up the Bretton Woods system, or the ERM, and see what happened there.

Edited by davepoth on Saturday 27th November 11:43

[Silver993tt]

davepoth said:

Silver993tt said:

The Euro is still a very strong currency, still 25% up on Sterling over 3 years and still 10% up on the USD since June 2010 despite the 'rough' ride some countries are experiencing. If the Euro as a currency was at such risk (which I certainly don't believe) it would have been dumped over the last year (since the loans to Greece) but it hasn't. As time goes by, periperal economies will strengthen due to the more stringent budgetary controls being brought in. This will make the countries within the Eurozone have a more level playing field in terms of economic efficiencies. It won't happen over night and it was never intended to happen in just a few years. It's a process that will take many 10s of years. That's the whoile point of the EU, to bring in countries with less developed economies, help them develop and then they become strong trading/export partners. Having a single currency makes business between these countries much easier to perform because it eliminates the huge swings in currency exchanges which can wipe out profits very quickly, a prime example being USD/YEN/GBP.

No, the point of the EU is to stop another European war. But that's a story for another day. The Euro is only strong because of Germany, all of the other members have broken and continue to break the rules (Greece's situation became worse after entry into the Euro rather than better) and while Germany continues to be a strong positive balance sheet nation, making up a major part of the Eurozone, the ECB is going to find it very difficult to set interest rates to suit Germany and the PIIGS(B).

In terms of stable exchange rates, look up the Bretton Woods system, or the ERM, and see what happened there.

Edited by davepoth on Saturday 27th November 11:43

Well, stopping further wars is a very positive side effect of having a union of countries, not only for the physical well being of the involved populations but also for economic growth and standards of living, which has been clearly demonstrated by the EU. Countries outside of the Eu but still technically in Europe have had major conflicts but even now, these countries are keen to join the EU, which will also take them out of risk of further conflict (no matter what the sceptics think). The current difficulties are the first thatthe EU has encountered since its existence, so to state that it's going to fail because of the current situation is I think a little naiive. The countries with issues are very small compared to the rest of those that don't have issues, currently 2 countries maybe 3 - out of 27. Even if Spain needed a loan it won't mean anything will collapse. I think that the doom mongers are thise that have always been against the EU because they have not benefitted direct either from doing business or personally even though indirectly their lives have benefitted from increased opportunities. Whether they take those opportunities, is of course up to them.

Of course the press will paint a picture blacker than black because Iraq and Afganistan are now stale stories and the majority believe the press at face value. Even the 'snow' is making news every 30mins at the moment.