Chinese GDP already overtaken the USA?
Discussion
According to new estimates that may very well be the case... faster than anyone predicted it seems:
China Overtakes U.S. as Biggest Economy When Measured by Purchasing Power
China overtook the U.S. last year as the world’s biggest economy when measured in terms of purchasing power, according to Arvind Subramanian, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
The size of China’s economy in 2010 was $14.8 trillion, compared with the U.S.’s $14.6 trillion, when accounting for the countries’ differing costs of living, Subramanian wrote in a note published yesterday, a week before President Hu Jintao visits Washington. So-called purchasing power parity calculates gross domestic product using exchange rates that adjusts for price differences of the same goods between nations.
Growth in the world’s most populous nation has averaged 10.3 percent a year over the past decade, nearly six times faster than the U.S. China was the biggest auto market for the second year running, created the world’s fastest supercomputer and was ranked the biggest user of energy in 2010.
A poll of Americans ahead of a summit of Hu and President Barack Obama next week, found some 47 percent said China is the leading economic power with 31 percent naming the U.S., according to the Washington-based Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. A February 2008 Pew Poll found 41 percent of Americans considered the U.S. the top economic power, with 30 percent naming China.
Prior Estimates
Subramanian said his calculations are based on new estimates of GDP that will soon be published by the Penn World Tables, which correct biases in previous estimates by the International Comparison of Prices project and the World Bank that underestimated China’s purchasing power.
Adjustments have also been made to take account of a different estimate for appreciation in China’s currency compared with that made by the International Monetary Fund, Subramanian said.
China’s GDP per capita, which reflects the average standard of living, would increase to $11,047 from the $7,518 estimated by the IMF in its World Economic Outlook, according to Subramanian’s calculations. That would still leave the U.S.’s GDP per capita 4.3 times higher than China’s, he said.
In nominal terms, China’s output in 2009 was 34 trillion yuan, or $5 trillion, at average exchange rates that year, trailing the U.S.’s $12.9 trillion.
--Nerys Avery. With assistance from Li Yanping, Kevin Hamlin and Mike Forsythe in Beijing. Editors: Brendan Murray, Lily Nonomiya
To contact Bloomberg news staff for this story: Nerys Avery in Beijing at +86-10-6649-7558 or navery2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-14/china-top...
China Overtakes U.S. as Biggest Economy When Measured by Purchasing Power
China overtook the U.S. last year as the world’s biggest economy when measured in terms of purchasing power, according to Arvind Subramanian, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
The size of China’s economy in 2010 was $14.8 trillion, compared with the U.S.’s $14.6 trillion, when accounting for the countries’ differing costs of living, Subramanian wrote in a note published yesterday, a week before President Hu Jintao visits Washington. So-called purchasing power parity calculates gross domestic product using exchange rates that adjusts for price differences of the same goods between nations.
Growth in the world’s most populous nation has averaged 10.3 percent a year over the past decade, nearly six times faster than the U.S. China was the biggest auto market for the second year running, created the world’s fastest supercomputer and was ranked the biggest user of energy in 2010.
A poll of Americans ahead of a summit of Hu and President Barack Obama next week, found some 47 percent said China is the leading economic power with 31 percent naming the U.S., according to the Washington-based Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. A February 2008 Pew Poll found 41 percent of Americans considered the U.S. the top economic power, with 30 percent naming China.
Prior Estimates
Subramanian said his calculations are based on new estimates of GDP that will soon be published by the Penn World Tables, which correct biases in previous estimates by the International Comparison of Prices project and the World Bank that underestimated China’s purchasing power.
Adjustments have also been made to take account of a different estimate for appreciation in China’s currency compared with that made by the International Monetary Fund, Subramanian said.
China’s GDP per capita, which reflects the average standard of living, would increase to $11,047 from the $7,518 estimated by the IMF in its World Economic Outlook, according to Subramanian’s calculations. That would still leave the U.S.’s GDP per capita 4.3 times higher than China’s, he said.
In nominal terms, China’s output in 2009 was 34 trillion yuan, or $5 trillion, at average exchange rates that year, trailing the U.S.’s $12.9 trillion.
--Nerys Avery. With assistance from Li Yanping, Kevin Hamlin and Mike Forsythe in Beijing. Editors: Brendan Murray, Lily Nonomiya
To contact Bloomberg news staff for this story: Nerys Avery in Beijing at +86-10-6649-7558 or navery2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-14/china-top...
Edited by jbi on Saturday 15th January 13:17
if you go to a village in punjab you will find that almost every home has a tv , a fridge and everything we have here is on there wishlist. if they have a pushbike they want a scooter , if they have one of those they want a motorbike who then want a car who in turn want a larger car. once the chinese market gets to a certain stage the domestic market will keep them going.
tat? like an iphone?
tat? like an iphone?
jas xjr said:
if you go to a village in punjab you will find that almost every home has a tv , a fridge and everything we have here is on there wishlist. if they have a pushbike they want a scooter , if they have one of those they want a motorbike who then want a car who in turn want a larger car. once the chinese market gets to a certain stage the domestic market will keep them going.
tat? like an iphone?
Precisely, they have the manufacturing ability, they just need the design ability, which they are not that far off even know....tat? like an iphone?
They designed and built the worlds fastest and most advanced high speed train. It's safe to say they are catching up very quickly in the areas of design... and in some areas taking the lead.
Here's CRH5 a few weeks ago, designed to work in temperatures down to -50c
Here's CRH5 a few weeks ago, designed to work in temperatures down to -50c
Edited by jbi on Saturday 15th January 13:47
odyssey2200 said:
Chine is, however vunerable.
If we all stopped buying their tat they would be in deep do-do.
Christ, the spelling on these forums!If we all stopped buying their tat they would be in deep do-do.
It's vulnerable and, where is CHINE ?
Anyway, China does not just produce 'tat'. If it did, they would not be in the position they are.
It's the price they can produce it for, and for those not in the know, the top quality of the non-tat.
They are not only innovators but superb copiers - they see something and five minutes later they are doing it, it's up and running... and invariably better!
Take a look at your 50 inch Plasma tv and see where it's made!
The best quality printed colour books are now produced in...
Yeah, you've guessed! I could go on.
If China is vulnerable as you say, just remember we are even more so!
The trouble is we all tend to believe the crap we read.
It's like the vision portrayed years ago of Spanish hospitals with the surgeon and a his fag ash dropping on the patient, but here it is all clean and sterile. The truth was the opposite! Ok, not that we had surgeons with fags, but that it was all a lie.
Look at the longest bridge in the world, 26+ miles!!, now Chinese.
It took us nearly 6 months to build a bridge across the Derwent RIVER! after the Cockermouth floods. And the bridge was not even British, it was imported from Holland!
The Chinese must be laughing their bloody socks off!
Edited by dandarez on Saturday 15th January 14:09
Ozzie Osmond said:
jbi said:
Here's CRH5 a few weeks ago, designed to work in temperatures down to -50c
Yup, our friends in the East tend to specify an operating range of -50C to +50C. Seems to cover all the likely bases!jbi said:
They designed and built the worlds fastest and most advanced high speed train. It's safe to say they are catching up very quickly in the areas of design... and in some areas taking the lead.
Here's CRH5 a few weeks ago, designed to work in temperatures down to -50c
.Here's CRH5 a few weeks ago, designed to work in temperatures down to -50c
Edited by jbi on Saturday 15th January 13:47
I just love that series of trains.
The CRH trains are world class, I am biased, as I get to travel in them almost every week.
And they are spottlesly clean also.
'vette
Mermaid said:
How long before Chinese becomes the dominant foreign language?
Its an interesting point. For now all the top students who will be the engineers, business leaders, political leaders etc etc of China's future are still taught english at school and sent to uni's in the West or english-taught uni's in China and the rest of Asia. While this happens there isn't such a need for the rest of the world to learn mandarin, but I wonder if eventually this will start to change.pokethepope said:
Mermaid said:
How long before Chinese becomes the dominant foreign language?
Its an interesting point. For now all the top students who will be the engineers, business leaders, political leaders etc etc of China's future are still taught english at school and sent to uni's in the West or english-taught uni's in China and the rest of Asia. While this happens there isn't such a need for the rest of the world to learn mandarin, but I wonder if eventually this will start to change.The English language is spoken more across the world than any other language.
Mandarin is spoken by more people than any other language.
'vette
pokethepope said:
Mermaid said:
How long before Chinese becomes the dominant foreign language?
Its an interesting point. For now all the top students who will be the engineers, business leaders, political leaders etc etc of China's future are still taught english at school and sent to uni's in the West or english-taught uni's in China and the rest of Asia. While this happens there isn't such a need for the rest of the world to learn mandarin, but I wonder if eventually this will start to change.uk_vette said:
jbi said:
They designed and built the worlds fastest and most advanced high speed train. It's safe to say they are catching up very quickly in the areas of design... and in some areas taking the lead.
Here's CRH5 a few weeks ago, designed to work in temperatures down to -50c
.Here's CRH5 a few weeks ago, designed to work in temperatures down to -50c
Edited by jbi on Saturday 15th January 13:47
I just love that series of trains.
The CRH trains are world class, I am biased, as I get to travel in them almost every week.
And they are spottlesly clean also.
'vette
pokethepope said:
Mermaid said:
How long before Chinese becomes the dominant foreign language?
Its an interesting point. For now all the top students who will be the engineers, business leaders, political leaders etc etc of China's future are still taught english at school and sent to uni's in the West or english-taught uni's in China and the rest of Asia. While this happens there isn't such a need for the rest of the world to learn mandarin, but I wonder if eventually this will start to change.The future is most likely "Panglish" it is estimated that by 2020 1/3 of the worlds population will speak English, but with only 300-400 people speaking it as a first language it is likely that it will be heavily influenced by asian speakers.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1582954/Eng...
That said I would suspect that given the greater communications capability in the modern world I suspect that the language will be more homogeneous than previous spreading languages such as latin and arabic.
This may have been ubiquitous so forgive me if so.
Recently received an e-mail which depicted via a sequence of still photos, an armed hostage situation.
In these, a character who was presumably a Chinese detective negotiated by way of pointing a pistol at the perp and summarily executing.
The strapline was based around comparing the costs of such an event with something similar in The West which was little more than the costs of the spent ballistics versus those of negotiation, trial and subsequent inmate expense in a country like our own.
To wit, a few cents v. millions of cabbage and "no wonder they can damn well undercut us!"
Recently received an e-mail which depicted via a sequence of still photos, an armed hostage situation.
In these, a character who was presumably a Chinese detective negotiated by way of pointing a pistol at the perp and summarily executing.
The strapline was based around comparing the costs of such an event with something similar in The West which was little more than the costs of the spent ballistics versus those of negotiation, trial and subsequent inmate expense in a country like our own.
To wit, a few cents v. millions of cabbage and "no wonder they can damn well undercut us!"
The method of equating the two economies is a bit of an iffy methodology.
Purchasing power parity essentially compares a shopping basket in both countries and then multiplies total output of the country by this. So what this figure is telling us is that if China spent all it's money on haircuts at Chinese rates it would get more haircuts than if America spent all of its money on haircuts in America.
If America and China were to spend all their money on internationally traded articles cars, aeroplanes, computers, electrical goods, pieces of heavy engineering equipment then the US economy would be able to buy far more of these products than China's
Purchasing power parity essentially compares a shopping basket in both countries and then multiplies total output of the country by this. So what this figure is telling us is that if China spent all it's money on haircuts at Chinese rates it would get more haircuts than if America spent all of its money on haircuts in America.
If America and China were to spend all their money on internationally traded articles cars, aeroplanes, computers, electrical goods, pieces of heavy engineering equipment then the US economy would be able to buy far more of these products than China's
odyssey2200 said:
Chine is, however vunerable.
If we all stopped buying their tat they would be in deep do-do.
LOL, since I was born China have been making our 'tat' as you describe it and they're getting rather good at it.If we all stopped buying their tat they would be in deep do-do.
Someone foolishly wrote off the Japs many moons ago when they started making motorbikes saying that they'd never be any competition for the UK.
We're taking the pi55 out of Chinese cars now but given a few more years things will be different.
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