When do new models affect residuals of old models?

[Ari]

It's generally felt that a new model coming out will knock the secondhand value of the old (current) models. So the new Ford Focus being launched will impact on the current model as it quickly becomes the "old shape" one.

But when?

Is it when the new model is announced because then people know that the current version is soon to be replaced, when it's launched because that's the point that the current model becomes the old model, or some time after when used versions of the new model start coming onto the used market?

Just curious as to peoples thoughts/experiences.

[kambites]

I suspect all of those things have an effect. I don't think it's a sudden step change.

[Hot Potatoes]

I don't know if there is a set day when it affects it, but look at the late 2002 W208 CLKs are incredibly cheap, but then there has been a whole new model (W209) since that and now the E-Class coupe replaced that. That's the sort of knock on effect with prestige cars i think.

[Ari]

I used to love those CLK's, even preferring them to the newer model that replaced it. But don't they look dated now!?

Maybe it's the second new model update that whacks residuals most?

[uncinquesei]

Depends on the transition - The premium makes tend to wind down production to avoid lots of unsold old shape stock and enhance specs at the same time. Volume makes tend to keep churning them out and then flick a switch and they're all new shape... In that situation the inevitable discounting will have an instant effect on the residuals.
When the A4 cab came out in end of 2002, the values of the old Audi Cab (80 shape) rose...

[Stoofa]

My current Octy vRS has taken a double hit in value.
First they upgraded the specification of the Mk2 - adding electric windows in the back, climatronic AC, Jumbo Box and 18" wheels as standard.
Mine didn't have any of these.
Then they go and release a Facelift of the Mk2 - further reducing the value of mine.

I've got a 56 plate and I'm only getting £6500 trade-in, so around £7200 retail value, quite a drop from it's value only 18-24 months ago.

[Ari]

uncinquesei said:

Depends on the transition - The premium makes tend to wind down production to avoid lots of unsold old shape stock and enhance specs at the same time. Volume makes tend to keep churning them out and then flick a switch and they're all new shape... In that situation the inevitable discounting will have an instant effect on the residuals.
When the A4 cab came out in end of 2002, the values of the old Audi Cab (80 shape) rose...

Really? That's interesting, why? I'd have thought the A4 Cab would have dated the old 80 based Cab quite a bit and knocked the value accordingly.