Zero Emissions Mandate readiness
Discussion
DonkeyApple said:
TheRainMaker said:
And they won't, which is why the BEV market share has only gained 1.4% this year.
Or do you think that is only down to the cost of the cars?
The market today really isn't about consumers who can't home charge. Put them to one side. Their opportunity to switch comes much later, years and years from now. Or do you think that is only down to the cost of the cars?
The market now is all about the larger majority who can home charge. It's that simple.
And why is 1.4% bad? This isn't some kind of revolution but a very slow, steady change over multiple decades.
And yes, ultimately it is all about the money. And you're going to see a step change when the eventual price inversion in the core section of the market appears at some point over the next ten years.
1.4x is pretty poor in the context of the ZEV target and the level of subsidies currently available.
DonkeyApple said:
PinkHouse said:
DonkeyApple said:
PinkHouse said:
Applying the same reasoning in all these points and your predicted future development trajectory to the current high cost and lack of availability of e-fuels will blow the minds of many on here.
One is just a matter of sticking some chargers in the ground and amending the legal sale of electricity from principal to agent. The other requires as God to change the fundamental laws of physics and finding a source of carbon on the planet that doesn't originate from either flora or fauna. 
DonkeyApple said:
NDNDNDND said:
DonkeyApple said:
'Build it, they will come' is a movie line and not a valid way of doing business.
Isn't that basically a central tenet of the ZEV mandate? Limit the market in the hope people will just capitulate and buy stuff they don't want?
survivalist said:
The main issue is that even those with the ability to charge at home aren’t choosing EVs at a significant rate. Of the 35 houses on our street only 4 are EVs. Ours is the only one that isn’t a company car (also the only one that isn’t a Tesla). Yet the majority are less than 3 years old.
1.4x is pretty poor in the context of the ZEV target and the level of subsidies currently available.
But what do you mean by 'only 4 out of 35 are EVs?' That's a massive uptake at such an early stage of the switching process. That's greater than 10% and EVs of merit have only really been on sale for about 4-5 years of which a chunk of that was messed up by lockdowns. 1.4x is pretty poor in the context of the ZEV target and the level of subsidies currently available.
The national average would work out to be 1 car per 35 currently so your street is 4x ahead.
And don't forget, this is the first year of the ZEV and some people are already in a panic or demanding it must stop. A massive over reaction in reality. Plus, it's 20% of new car sales so around 400k EVs being added to our ICE fleet of >35m.
I genuinely think many people thought this was some kind of revolution and expected some kind of rapid switch. Just look at the U.K. fleet size, the max number of new cars added each year and what a small percentage of those need to be EV and it's clear that this is a multi generational shift.
Those of us over 50 will barely be troubled by it unless we want to be and those not yet driving won't care so that leaves a modest cohort in-between who can switch any time from today to twenty+ years down the line when the product is better, the infrastructure better, the choice far wider etc.
I'm in zero rush to get an EV. I've nothing against either. Both have their shortfalls but no one is dictating terms to me. To be honest, a lot of people have got themselves very wound up over nothing.
PinkHouse said:
In today's hyper competitive and ruthless consumer market, deadwood tends to clear itself out. Nokia, Ericsson and Blackberry died because their competitors made better products, rather than a mandate that forced a % increase in smartphone sales
They died because they stopped being relevant.Carmakers who can’t turn a profit making great EVs are no longer relevant.
And stop focussing on the Uk. We’ve just seen profit warnings from almost all major German OEMs and none of that is to do with what the UK market is doing. It’s about China where they’ve made huge profits historically. Whereas now they’re getting eaten for breakfast because that domestic brands can make much better EVs and that market has strong customer demand for them (>50% uptake now)
D4rez said:
They died because they stopped being relevant.
Carmakers who can’t turn a profit making great EVs are no longer relevant.
And stop focussing on the Uk. We’ve just seen profit warnings from almost all major German OEMs and none of that is to do with what the UK market is doing. It’s about China where they’ve made huge profits historically. Whereas now they’re getting eaten for breakfast because that domestic brands can make much better EVs and that market has strong customer demand for them (>50% uptake now)
Germany is facing an almost existential threat akin to what the U.K. suffered in the latter half of the 20th century but without energy sufficiency and the City of London to soften the potential blow. Carmakers who can’t turn a profit making great EVs are no longer relevant.
And stop focussing on the Uk. We’ve just seen profit warnings from almost all major German OEMs and none of that is to do with what the UK market is doing. It’s about China where they’ve made huge profits historically. Whereas now they’re getting eaten for breakfast because that domestic brands can make much better EVs and that market has strong customer demand for them (>50% uptake now)
They can no longer expand the EU to the East for more cheap land and labour along with new customers. The land they have already expanded into now requires vast investment for its factories to meet 2050 targets.
But more critically for this thread, their plan was to build their cheapest models in China and start bypassing their local unions and other high domestic costs.
We've been watching lots of brands seeking to move upmarket in their offerings because they just can't compete against Asian production at the bottom of the market. The most notable example being Ford's exports to the U.K. where they've steadily been surrendering the bottom of the market to the Koreans and now the Chinese. Stellantis are in the same boat. Both have suffered from the same issues at boardroom albeit, Stelantis has been ten times the mess of Ford with its endless hand bagging as emotional dudes from the numerous brands slug it out to win the better pension plan rather than doing their actual job of piloting the business.
Meanwhile Renault sought an alliance with Nissan years in advance and began testing the waters with EVs years before it needed to and arguably, decades before its core client base would be asking for product. They spotted the vital need for a premium brand and realised that RenaultSport as a name wasn't going to achieve that so dug out a dead name to replace it and Alpine looks to be moving forward in a way that if still called RenaultSport it could never have dreamt of doing. They also already have the super sub brand of Dacia and are producing some of those models in China already. Meanwhile, Nissan also has worked a steady plan to electrification and one wonders whether they understood the battery aspect better than others because of their Japanese position and its key, established tech and battery industries?
Either way, we have huge economic shifts occurring as global economies continue to shift out of QE, into QT and we find ourselves at the opposite end of the rate cycle and with all major currencies massively devalued since 2010. While alongside all of that, the need for domestic energy production has not ever been greater and more economically crushing
And meanwhile, a few old men in Britain, a nation least impacted by any of this global mess, are distressed that maybe in 25 years time they won't be able to replace their 4 pot generic utility box with another one and less than 12 months into the ZEV are wanting to throw up a white flag and run away.
DonkeyApple said:
survivalist said:
The main issue is that even those with the ability to charge at home aren’t choosing EVs at a significant rate. Of the 35 houses on our street only 4 are EVs. Ours is the only one that isn’t a company car (also the only one that isn’t a Tesla). Yet the majority are less than 3 years old.
1.4x is pretty poor in the context of the ZEV target and the level of subsidies currently available.
But what do you mean by 'only 4 out of 35 are EVs?' That's a massive uptake at such an early stage of the switching process. That's greater than 10% and EVs of merit have only really been on sale for about 4-5 years of which a chunk of that was messed up by lockdowns. 1.4x is pretty poor in the context of the ZEV target and the level of subsidies currently available.
The national average would work out to be 1 car per 35 currently so your street is 4x ahead.
And don't forget, this is the first year of the ZEV and some people are already in a panic or demanding it must stop. A massive over reaction in reality. Plus, it's 20% of new car sales so around 400k EVs being added to our ICE fleet of >35m.
I genuinely think many people thought this was some kind of revolution and expected some kind of rapid switch. Just look at the U.K. fleet size, the max number of new cars added each year and what a small percentage of those need to be EV and it's clear that this is a multi generational shift.
Those of us over 50 will barely be troubled by it unless we want to be and those not yet driving won't care so that leaves a modest cohort in-between who can switch any time from today to twenty+ years down the line when the product is better, the infrastructure better, the choice far wider etc.
I'm in zero rush to get an EV. I've nothing against either. Both have their shortfalls but no one is dictating terms to me. To be honest, a lot of people have got themselves very wound up over nothing.
My point was more that this demographic should be the ones privately adopting EVs - 2 car households with driveways who regularly buy brand new cars. Yet they are choosing cars like Nissan Jukes and Ford Pumas instead.
It’s a shame, as typically one of the cars will have a pretty low annual mileage.
The 2 I know which Teslas have only done so because of the very significant cost savings due to BIK.
Which is all fine, but surely many of those who have taken advantage of those schemes have already done so, hence the slow growth of EV market share.
survivalist said:
That would be the case if each household only had 1 car. Struggling to think of any that don’t at least 2.
My point was more that this demographic should be the ones privately adopting EVs - 2 car households with driveways who regularly buy brand new cars. Yet they are choosing cars like Nissan Jukes and Ford Pumas instead.
It’s a shame, as typically one of the cars will have a pretty low annual mileage.
The 2 I know which Teslas have only done so because of the very significant cost savings due to BIK.
Which is all fine, but surely many of those who have taken advantage of those schemes have already done so, hence the slow growth of EV market share.
It's just a function of time. The demographic that you describe is the exact demographic that will very slowly switch/migrate to EV over the next 10-15 years because they can but don't immediately see the need to. My point was more that this demographic should be the ones privately adopting EVs - 2 car households with driveways who regularly buy brand new cars. Yet they are choosing cars like Nissan Jukes and Ford Pumas instead.
It’s a shame, as typically one of the cars will have a pretty low annual mileage.
The 2 I know which Teslas have only done so because of the very significant cost savings due to BIK.
Which is all fine, but surely many of those who have taken advantage of those schemes have already done so, hence the slow growth of EV market share.
Plus, at the moment you'd only seriously consider a new EV if you had access to BIK to bring the monthlies down to the closer point of fair value.
What's at play is the whole media distortion. For the last few years the bulk of media coverage has been about EVs. This has given the distorted impression that there was some kind of tectonic, seismic shift under way when there never was. So bombarded with endless media and PR about EVs people garner the impression that they expect to see them everywhere and becoming rapidly ubiquitous but everything is governed by the new car purchase rate and now the ZEV percentages and when you look at those numbers as a function of the 35m+ ICE cars on the road in the U.K. we can clearly see there is no revolution at all, in any way shape of form.
It's not some epic cultural shift like smart phones but just a really slow, steady evolution of the type that normally wouldn't be noticed by someone until decades later when they realise things have changed. Maybe it's more akin to out of town shopping? Everyone heard about Lakeside, Thurrock, the Arndale etc but no one directly noticed that almost every town in the U.K. steadily built a ring road and located a vast array of retail centres around it and today that is completely the norm 30+ years on, 40 years on from when people were returning from America and talking about these amazing retail centres etc.
It's all just much, much slower than many have naturally assumed and we have years and years of choosing what we want.
My concern isn't EVs at all but the modern, invasive and controlling tech going into all cars that does remove our freedoms and local government anti car policies that also remove our freedoms. How a generic utility box is propelled removes no freedom, it just requires patience and thought.
DonkeyApple said:
D4rez said:
They died because they stopped being relevant.
Carmakers who can’t turn a profit making great EVs are no longer relevant.
And stop focussing on the Uk. We’ve just seen profit warnings from almost all major German OEMs and none of that is to do with what the UK market is doing. It’s about China where they’ve made huge profits historically. Whereas now they’re getting eaten for breakfast because that domestic brands can make much better EVs and that market has strong customer demand for them (>50% uptake now)
Germany is facing an almost existential threat akin to what the U.K. suffered in the latter half of the 20th century but without energy sufficiency and the City of London to soften the potential blow. Carmakers who can’t turn a profit making great EVs are no longer relevant.
And stop focussing on the Uk. We’ve just seen profit warnings from almost all major German OEMs and none of that is to do with what the UK market is doing. It’s about China where they’ve made huge profits historically. Whereas now they’re getting eaten for breakfast because that domestic brands can make much better EVs and that market has strong customer demand for them (>50% uptake now)
They can no longer expand the EU to the East for more cheap land and labour along with new customers. The land they have already expanded into now requires vast investment for its factories to meet 2050 targets.
But more critically for this thread, their plan was to build their cheapest models in China and start bypassing their local unions and other high domestic costs.
We've been watching lots of brands seeking to move upmarket in their offerings because they just can't compete against Asian production at the bottom of the market. The most notable example being Ford's exports to the U.K. where they've steadily been surrendering the bottom of the market to the Koreans and now the Chinese. Stellantis are in the same boat. Both have suffered from the same issues at boardroom albeit, Stelantis has been ten times the mess of Ford with its endless hand bagging as emotional dudes from the numerous brands slug it out to win the better pension plan rather than doing their actual job of piloting the business.
Meanwhile Renault sought an alliance with Nissan years in advance and began testing the waters with EVs years before it needed to and arguably, decades before its core client base would be asking for product. They spotted the vital need for a premium brand and realised that RenaultSport as a name wasn't going to achieve that so dug out a dead name to replace it and Alpine looks to be moving forward in a way that if still called RenaultSport it could never have dreamt of doing. They also already have the super sub brand of Dacia and are producing some of those models in China already. Meanwhile, Nissan also has worked a steady plan to electrification and one wonders whether they understood the battery aspect better than others because of their Japanese position and its key, established tech and battery industries?
Either way, we have huge economic shifts occurring as global economies continue to shift out of QE, into QT and we find ourselves at the opposite end of the rate cycle and with all major currencies massively devalued since 2010. While alongside all of that, the need for domestic energy production has not ever been greater and more economically crushing
And meanwhile, a few old men in Britain, a nation least impacted by any of this global mess, are distressed that maybe in 25 years time they won't be able to replace their 4 pot generic utility box with another one and less than 12 months into the ZEV are wanting to throw up a white flag and run away.
[Img]https://img.gifglobe.com/grabs/montypython/MontyPythonAndTheHolyGrail/gif/ohASybwGQ5Nf.gif[/thumb]
https://www.cbi.org.uk/articles/the-uk-auto-indust...
TheDeuce said:
PinkHouse said:
TheDeuce said:
ICE car production will grind to a halt in the next 5 years for most manufacturers.
This contradicts the most recent statements from the world's largest car manufacturers. If we're going to be sticklers for details on this thread then we've got to stop repeating these falsehoods. Your desire to see the end of ICE manufacturing has no bearing on reality You've already seen what is effectively the end of ICE development. There will be some exceptions, if you're wealthy enough.
TX.
Nomme de Plum said:
I think 5 years may be too optimistic as Hybrids will still be manufactured but let's see in 5 years where we are.
With China manufacturing at a very low cost base and the likes of Tesla just about managing to compete, gross margin still over 15% then the legacy MMs are bound to follow suit.
EVs will become relatively cheaper to build year on year as economies of scale improve and batteries manufacturing costs continue to fall, much like solar panels and chips before.
ICEs will simply not compete and go the same way as the steam engine and steam trains.
Anyone with an Iota of both mechanical and electronic engineering knowledge, already knows this.
But not efuel as you guys continue to repeat With China manufacturing at a very low cost base and the likes of Tesla just about managing to compete, gross margin still over 15% then the legacy MMs are bound to follow suit.
EVs will become relatively cheaper to build year on year as economies of scale improve and batteries manufacturing costs continue to fall, much like solar panels and chips before.
ICEs will simply not compete and go the same way as the steam engine and steam trains.
Anyone with an Iota of both mechanical and electronic engineering knowledge, already knows this.
Also it isn't the same as the steam engine or steam trains; those companies just switched over of their own accord and passengers couldn't care less vs here we have Govts trying to mandate EV in despite low consumer demand.
TX.
Mikehig said:
This article from the CBI summarises the contribution made by the motor industry to the economy. The numbers are chunky even though we have limited production in the UK these days. It emphasises how much is at risk if the ZEV mandate backfires and manufacturers cut back or even leave the market.
https://www.cbi.org.uk/articles/the-uk-auto-indust...
Read my post in what you quoted. This isn’t just a UK thing and OEMs are struggling because of the Chinese EV market.https://www.cbi.org.uk/articles/the-uk-auto-indust...
If they leave this market where exactly do you think they’ll go?
DonkeyApple said:
TheRainMaker said:
And they won't, which is why the BEV market share has only gained 1.4% this year.
Or do you think that is only down to the cost of the cars?
The market today really isn't about consumers who can't home charge. Put them to one side. Their opportunity to switch comes much later, years and years from now. Or do you think that is only down to the cost of the cars?
The market now is all about the larger majority who can home charge. It's that simple.
And why is 1.4% bad? This isn't some kind of revolution but a very slow, steady change over multiple decades.
And yes, ultimately it is all about the money. And you're going to see a step change when the eventual price inversion in the core section of the market appears at some point over the next ten years.
"City streets full of terraced houses present a particular challenge. Research by the RAC Foundation suggests in Nottingham as many as forty per cent of households have no access to a private parking space."
TX.
PS I notice that the EV crowd have now started to eek this out to 2040 and beyond, no longer will EV's "smash the market" (why wouldn't they given they are so efficient) but now it's a long and steady journey
this is also happening whilst the ZEV mandate is supposed to crush ICE too.DonkeyApple said:
And meanwhile, a few old men in Britain, a nation least impacted by any of this global mess, are distressed that maybe in 25 years time they won't be able to replace their 4 pot generic utility box with another one and less than 12 months into the ZEV are wanting to throw up a white flag and run away.
A few old men? It seems that the vast majority of public who buy new cars don't want EV. Despite 62% of cars being bought by companies with significant tax breaks to purchase EV even then the uptake is glacier.38% private sales.
17% BEV despite 62% of sales being to business / fleet
"Private BEV uptake has fallen 10.8% year-to-date, with fewer than one in five new BEVs going to private buyers."
TX.
D4rez said:
Mikehig said:
This article from the CBI summarises the contribution made by the motor industry to the economy. The numbers are chunky even though we have limited production in the UK these days. It emphasises how much is at risk if the ZEV mandate backfires and manufacturers cut back or even leave the market.
https://www.cbi.org.uk/articles/the-uk-auto-indust...
Read my post in what you quoted. This isn’t just a UK thing and OEMs are struggling because of the Chinese EV market.https://www.cbi.org.uk/articles/the-uk-auto-indust...
If they leave this market where exactly do you think they’ll go?
Obviously other western countries face the same problems, to greater or lesser extents.
Protectionism looms, as the EU has just shown.
. Terminator X said:
A few old men? It seems that the vast majority of public who buy new cars don't want EV. Despite 62% of cars being bought by companies with significant tax breaks to purchase EV even then the uptake is glacier.
38% private sales.
17% BEV despite 62% of sales being to business / fleet
"Private BEV uptake has fallen 10.8% year-to-date, with fewer than one in five new BEVs going to private buyers."
TX.
Why would you buy a new EV privately?38% private sales.
17% BEV despite 62% of sales being to business / fleet
"Private BEV uptake has fallen 10.8% year-to-date, with fewer than one in five new BEVs going to private buyers."
TX.
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