Next Conservative party leader.

[essayer]

The DUP would have to vote against the gov in a confidence vote and they said (off record) today they'd never support Labour with Corbyn in power

http://www.itv.com/news/2017-06-12/dup-will-suppor...

[BlackLabel]

A big challenge for the next leader will be to win back some of the young voters. Not only did 2/3 of 18-24-year-olds vote for Labour (and the turnout for this age category jumped from the mid 50s to 66%) but Labour also won 50% of the vote to the Conservatives' 30% from 35-44-year-olds according to an Ashcroft exit poll.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk...

[768]

I'm not sure chasing the votes of the young, trying to outbid collosal amounts of free money, is a smart long term strategy.

[Jonesy23]

And isn't trying to chase a new group of voters, rather than appealing to the core and the floaters where May went wrong?

Losing those is big bit of what cost her the seats she lost.

Targeting the young is all well and good but not if it loses you the rest.

[Vaud]

768 said:

I'm not sure chasing the votes of the young, trying to outbid collosal amounts of free money, is a smart long term strategy.

I don't think you have to outbid, but your policies need to come across with "hope" and "aspiration" - which May's did not.

[768]

Those words seem to have different meanings to others.

To me, trashing the economy and increasing taxes yet again for those who get on a bit, regardless of the effect on tax take, crush hope and aspiration.

[Vaud]

768 said:

Those words seem to have different meanings to others.

To me, trashing the economy and increasing taxes yet again for those who get on a bit, regardless of the effect on tax take, crush hope and aspiration.

It means different things to different people at different stages of their lives. The 18-24's were not generally not politically conscious in the 2008 crash, and fluffy words like "raising bonds" sounds so nice and safe to pay for everything.

[Derek Smith]

Jonesy23 said:

And isn't trying to chase a new group of voters, rather than appealing to the core and the floaters where May went wrong?

Losing those is big bit of what cost her the seats she lost.

Targeting the young is all well and good but not if it loses you the rest.

The floating voter is the group that holds the power. The majority of people vote uncritically. It's labour/tories/libdems. You can alienate your core but it takes a lot of effort. The libdems managed it by saying one thing and doing the other.

Every party that gets a majority does so because of the floating voter. These have to be considered. May's policies upset some of her habitués but the core vote stood up. There was nothing for anyone else in the manifesto. It was, at least at the beginning, nothing other than a request for a carte blanche on brexit. Not much to attract the floating voter there.

I'm a floating voter, and have been for all of my life. May offered nothing for me, so she didn't get my vote. Mind you, Corbyn didn't offer much more. That made May the worst of a bad lot.

[oyster]

BlackLabel said:

A big challenge for the next leader will be to win back some of the young voters. Not only did 2/3 of 18-24-year-olds vote for Labour (and the turnout for this age category jumped from the mid 50s to 66%) but Labour also won 50% of the vote to the Conservatives' 30% from 35-44-year-olds according to an Ashcroft exit poll.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk...

I'd be really worried about the lack of Tory support in that 35-44 bracket. This is people at or near peak earning capacity. This is not students. Why the huge support for Labour over the Tories here? Is this the hard Brexit backlash?

[TooMany2cvs]

oyster said:

BlackLabel said:

A big challenge for the next leader will be to win back some of the young voters. Not only did 2/3 of 18-24-year-olds vote for Labour (and the turnout for this age category jumped from the mid 50s to 66%) but Labour also won 50% of the vote to the Conservatives' 30% from 35-44-year-olds according to an Ashcroft exit poll.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk...

I'd be really worried about the lack of Tory support in that 35-44 bracket. This is people at or near peak earning capacity. This is not students. Why the huge support for Labour over the Tories here?

Because not all of that age range are looking at that "peak earning capacity" with smug satisfaction...? And a proportion of those who are may be looking around them and thinking "Well, I'm OK, but not everybody is - and I could afford to help them a bit more."

oyster said:

Is this the hard Brexit backlash?

A part may well be, but it seems a bit daft given Labour's utter wishy-washiness on the subject.

[JagLover]

oyster said:

I'd be really worried about the lack of Tory support in that 35-44 bracket. This is people at or near peak earning capacity. This is not students. Why the huge support for Labour over the Tories here? Is this the hard Brexit backlash?

For most of those who voted Labour Brexit wasn't the most important issue (only 9% I think)

The media are trying to make the result all about Brexit.

[Jockman]

oyster said:

I'd be really worried about the lack of Tory support in that 35-44 bracket. This is people at or near peak earning capacity. This is not students. Why the huge support for Labour over the Tories here? Is this the hard Brexit backlash?

It's the JAMs bracket. Labour offered to remove their student debt and reset the housing market.

Tories offered more austerity.

[TooMany2cvs]

Jockman said:

It's the JAMs bracket. Labour offered to remove their student debt...

The upper end of that bracket will be closing rapidly on loan cancellation.

[speedy_thrills]

oyster said:

I'd be really worried about the lack of Tory support in that 35-44 bracket. This is people at or near peak earning capacity. This is not students. Why the huge support for Labour over the Tories here? Is this the hard Brexit backlash?

Good question. Most of their policies where targeting older voters. The UK is an ageing society, there are more votes to be won pandering to older voters. Solid bet...but it didn't work out.

In my view there where a few fronts they could have went after younger voters and remained Conservative such as wage growth or housing affordability/supply. However, perhaps not wanting to draw attention to the stalled economic recovery, they avoided economic policies that could be viewed as more "ambitious."

I suspect if their performance on economic issues had been stronger previously however we wouldn't be having this conversation, when peoples wages are growing in real terms there's usually little pressure on governments for reform.

Edited by speedy_thrills on Tuesday 13th June 10:30

[oyster]

speedy_thrills said:

oyster said:

I'd be really worried about the lack of Tory support in that 35-44 bracket. This is people at or near peak earning capacity. This is not students. Why the huge support for Labour over the Tories here? Is this the hard Brexit backlash?

Good question. Most of their policies where targeting older voters. The UK is an ageing society, there are more votes to be won pandering to older voters. Solid bet...but it didn't work out.

In my view there where a few fronts they could have went after younger voters and remained Conservative such as wage growth or housing affordability/supply. However, perhaps not wanting to draw attention to the stalled economic recovery, they avoided economic policies that could be viewed as more "ambitious."

I suspect if their performance on economic issues had been stronger previously however we wouldn't be having this conversation, when peoples wages are growing in real terms there's usually little pressure on governments for reform.

Edited by speedy_thrills on Tuesday 13th June 10:30

This is a good point.

Between the point that the opinion polls had the Tories with a 20 point lead and last Thursday, the pay squeeze really became clear.
At the time of the Copeland by-election win for the Tories, wage growth was at 2.8% with inflation at 1.8%.
By the time of the election, wage growth was down to 2.4% with inflation (as announced today) of 2.9%

People felt poorer.

[Jockman]

oyster said:

speedy_thrills said:

oyster said:

I'd be really worried about the lack of Tory support in that 35-44 bracket. This is people at or near peak earning capacity. This is not students. Why the huge support for Labour over the Tories here? Is this the hard Brexit backlash?

Good question. Most of their policies where targeting older voters. The UK is an ageing society, there are more votes to be won pandering to older voters. Solid bet...but it didn't work out.

In my view there where a few fronts they could have went after younger voters and remained Conservative such as wage growth or housing affordability/supply. However, perhaps not wanting to draw attention to the stalled economic recovery, they avoided economic policies that could be viewed as more "ambitious."

I suspect if their performance on economic issues had been stronger previously however we wouldn't be having this conversation, when peoples wages are growing in real terms there's usually little pressure on governments for reform.

Edited by speedy_thrills on Tuesday 13th June 10:30

This is a good point.

Between the point that the opinion polls had the Tories with a 20 point lead and last Thursday, the pay squeeze really became clear.
At the time of the Copeland by-election win for the Tories, wage growth was at 2.8% with inflation at 1.8%.
By the time of the election, wage growth was down to 2.4% with inflation (as announced today) of 2.9%

People felt poorer.

The 2 main reasons for the decline in Tory vote were poor strategy and a poor manifesto.

There was only one poll that called a hung parliament. That very same poll had a Tory majority of 60 on the eve of the launch of the manifesto.

Corbyn's strategy of changing his long held beliefs after a slaughtering in the local elections was effective.

[WCZ]

Vaud said:

I don't think you have to outbid, but your policies need to come across with "hope" and "aspiration" - which May's did not.

exactly, that and Corbyn comes across as a nice person who cares about the people as oppose to a robot

[JagLover]

Jockman said:

The 2 main reasons for the decline in Tory vote were poor strategy and a poor manifesto.

There was only one poll that called a hung parliament. That very same poll had a Tory majority of 60 on the eve of the launch of the manifesto.

Corbyn's strategy of changing his long held beliefs after a slaughtering in the local elections was effective.

This

You can attribute it to Brexit, or to austerity, or you can actually look at the polls and see how they changed.

The dementia tax fiasco alone seems to have resulted in a permanent 3% shift from Tories to Labour during the campaign. Without that everyone would be congratulating May on what a great idea it had been to hold a snap election.

[anonymous-user]

WCZ said:

exactly, that and Corbyn comes across as a nice person who cares about the people as oppose to a robot

He doesn't to anyone who doesn't agree with his vision of the economy and society. He comes across as incredibly scary and intolerant to me.

[alfie2244]

jsf said:

WCZ said:

exactly, that and Corbyn comes across as a nice person who cares about the people as oppose to a robot

He doesn't to anyone who doesn't agree with his vision of the economy and society. He comes across as incredibly scary and intolerant to me.

Amazing how people can hold such opposing views of someone....I wouldn't trust Corby as far as I could throw him. Each to their own I suppose.