AML Share price fall
Discussion
2002 said:
rovcallum said:
Wouldn't surprise me if Dr P is shown the door if the share price hits £5. Not totally his fault but it will clear the air.
I doubt it as, despite this drop, is he not the best they've got to push the firm forward? I mean who else is going to do it?Bobajobbob said:
Re-engineer the Vantage front end to make it an iterative evolution of the old model and much like Porsche and their 911 you will sell a bucketload and continue to do so with each upgrade.
Ironically in doing so you will increase the value of the interim ‘ugly’ Vantage that was only sold for a limited time.
I don't see them face lifting the "ugly" Vantage any time soon, I think their heels are dug in unfortunately. Can't imagine it ever being a good investment or holding it's value either. There is just so much wrong with it IMO only, the front end speaks for itself, the back end is way to busy and the interior is kind of a mess. Ironically in doing so you will increase the value of the interim ‘ugly’ Vantage that was only sold for a limited time.
AstonV said:
I don't see them face lifting the "ugly" Vantage any time soon, I think their heels are dug in unfortunately. Can't imagine it ever being a good investment or holding it's value either. There is just so much wrong with it IMO only, the front end speaks for itself, the back end is way to busy and the interior is kind of a mess.
Agreed with ^^^^^^ 100% nailedfaa77 said:
Bobajobbob said:
New Vantage is too ugly and too expensive. If I don’t want one then Aston do have a problem.
100% nailed itSo, IMHO AML have a problem if they never sell me (and everyone else like me) another car. They have even more of a problem if nobody buys old Vantages & DB9s because they can't afford to run them because AML keep putting parts prices up so much. You can't just keep selling specials to the Super rich, you need a very broad based customer base, surely?
AdamV12AMR said:
So what’s the market cap of AML at 630p?
Given we seem to be a group of world-class proven designers, engineers, marketers and CEOs, surely we should all do a whip-round and buy the business? Show those amateurs in Gaydon how it’s done
You missed your chance chaps, it hit a low of 622.20 this morning making it worth £1.45 billion. On its way up again now Given we seem to be a group of world-class proven designers, engineers, marketers and CEOs, surely we should all do a whip-round and buy the business? Show those amateurs in Gaydon how it’s done
Open 639.00
High 657.20
Low 622.20
Mkt cap 1.45B
V8V Pete said:
Let's ignore the "Super rich" for now whoever they are. I'm happy with what I earn (ignoring the recent assault on my pension) and 4 years ago upgraded my 2009 4.7 Vantage to an 18 month old Vantage S. Perfect spec for me and I love it but surely I would be thinking of upgrading again soon, no? No way! I can't make myself like the new Vantage enough and the cost to change is obscene. So I'll stick with what I've got and continue to improve it incrementally with mods etc.
So, IMHO AML have a problem if they never sell me (and everyone else like me) another car. They have even more of a problem if nobody buys old Vantages & DB9s because they can't afford to run them because AML keep putting parts prices up so much. You can't just keep selling specials to the Super rich, you need a very broad based customer base, surely?
Exactly the point I made and I'm in the same position.So, IMHO AML have a problem if they never sell me (and everyone else like me) another car. They have even more of a problem if nobody buys old Vantages & DB9s because they can't afford to run them because AML keep putting parts prices up so much. You can't just keep selling specials to the Super rich, you need a very broad based customer base, surely?
My DB9V is one of 3 cars I have and I only do about 1500 miles annually in it.
My journey to work is only a couple of miles so it's a Sunday toy.
I think my scenario is the same for a lot of us and that's why I would think very carefully about swapping it in at a MD for a used DB11V if it's going to cost say an extra £100K plus my trade in.
Two transactions this morning. Perhaps a remarkable coincidence, but presumably a purchase followed by a sale by the same person.
08:32am - 26/07/2019 Buy 6343 AML shares @ 646.46p = £41,005.02
09:34am - 26/07/2019 Sell 6343 AML shares @ 615.74p = £39,056.13
Is that how short-term traders lose £2,000 in one hour?
Phil74891 said:
DBX is key to the future of AML. If that flops then things don’t look too good.
Whilst it was a good time to float in terms of the level of good news, new model impetus, etc it seemed obvious from the start that the 2-3 years following the float would be an appalling time to be subject to city/investor scrutiny, especially when you are under that scrutiny for the first timeThat's because so much is up in the air for this period, including as you say DBX but also, the lead-in to the production mid engined car and to lagonda
The only real measure we can use during this period is current production new car sales and as they are down, it's inevitable the price has crashed. But if DBX sells say 5-6k per annum and the mid engined car say 2k per year, nobody will be that worried whether they sell 5k. 6k or 7k front engined sports cars per year
From the outside, it seems a highish risk strategy that will either make or break Aston. It's very difficult to predict now how things will look for Aston in say 3 years time. The current share price may look, with hindsight, like an absolute steal but I'm not sure any of us are in a position to accurately predict how this is all going to work
2002 said:
rovcallum said:
Wouldn't surprise me if Dr P is shown the door if the share price hits £5. Not totally his fault but it will clear the air.
I doubt it as, despite this drop, is he not the best they've got to push the firm forward? I mean who else is going to do it?Its going to take something unbelievable to recover the stock to IPO levels, its a zero sum game, someone, somewhere has taken a very big bath on this.
jonby said:
Whilst it was a good time to float in terms of the level of good news, new model impetus, etc it seemed obvious from the start that the 2-3 years following the float would be an appalling time to be subject to city/investor scrutiny, especially when you are under that scrutiny for the first time
That's because so much is up in the air for this period, including as you say DBX but also, the lead-in to the production mid engined car and to lagonda
The only real measure we can use during this period is current production new car sales and as they are down, it's inevitable the price has crashed. But if DBX sells say 5-6k per annum and the mid engined car say 2k per year, nobody will be that worried whether they sell 5k. 6k or 7k front engined sports cars per year
From the outside, it seems a highish risk strategy that will either make or break Aston. It's very difficult to predict now how things will look for Aston in say 3 years time. The current share price may look, with hindsight, like an absolute steal but I'm not sure any of us are in a position to accurately predict how this is all going to work
That's because so much is up in the air for this period, including as you say DBX but also, the lead-in to the production mid engined car and to lagonda
The only real measure we can use during this period is current production new car sales and as they are down, it's inevitable the price has crashed. But if DBX sells say 5-6k per annum and the mid engined car say 2k per year, nobody will be that worried whether they sell 5k. 6k or 7k front engined sports cars per year
From the outside, it seems a highish risk strategy that will either make or break Aston. It's very difficult to predict now how things will look for Aston in say 3 years time. The current share price may look, with hindsight, like an absolute steal but I'm not sure any of us are in a position to accurately predict how this is all going to work
Wise words from you Jonby as usual, which summarises the current position very well.
You may recall, that when there were initial rumours about an AML stock market flotation, I was against the very thought of it. A private company has the advantage of privacy, and is able to deal with business problems behind closed doors.
A smallish business, with a shall we say a difficult history, in the very cyclical motor manufacturing sector, was opening itself for intense public scrutiny. One of the reasons for an IPO, is to raise equity capital (without any obligation to pay either interest or dividends on that money), so I was amazed that no new money was raised by them in the IPO, especially at a time when so much was planned to be spent on the development of new models, a new factory and new engines.
I am guessing here, but whereas the Middle East investors appeared to be happy holding long-term, when the private equity investment was accepted, everything changed. Private equity firms tend to think about (roughly) 5 year investments, so an IPO for AML then became a possible way for the PE firm to dispose of their holding. With their percentage ownership, they would have had a strong say in the matter.
I suppose a rights issue could become a possibility (the shareholders will not be happy about that, after such an enormous share price decline), but as many of us have said on here, if big profits flow from the DBX, then everything becomes easier.
We all want Astin Martin to succeed.
[ Years ago, Sir Richard Branson (probably Mr. then) floated his company on the London Stock Exchange. The share price went down, but in the end, he bought back the business and at the original flotation price. A very generous gesture to his shareholders. ]
I'd guess volumes are down because Vantage hasn't taken off. Like lots of others I try to like it but can't. And can't understand how it was signed off tbh. Lights are jewellery on a car. But on the Vantage they just look dull, cheap and dead. I agree DBX is key going forward but the worry is that things like the lights and design cues are carried into DBX to a not-positive effect. We all love the brand and want it to succeed. I think part of the reason for lower residuals on old shape Vantage (I recently sold my V12 VSR) is that new Vantage values have fallen. Kinda the opposite of what happened when Lamborghini introduced the Huracan to replace Gallardo. There, Huracan had a halo effect on values of Gallardos....
Throttle Body said:
When AML floated at £19, I thought it was very optimistically priced, so I didn't bother buying shares that I felt were destined to fall. I said to myself that, were the shares to drop to about one third of their initial price, in the 600s, I would buy a few shares. Not as an investment, you understand, but just as a bit of fun to go with my DB7. So today I bought those shares at £6.69 with a little bit of money that I am happy to lose if it all goes wrong.
I don't really understand why the shares have dropped so much in the last two days. It looks like a huge overreaction to a drop in the sales forecast for the next year. I suspect that something else is afoot amongst institutional investors, or that algorithmic trading is cutting in to cap losses.
I don't really understand why the shares have dropped so much in the last two days. It looks like a huge overreaction to a drop in the sales forecast for the next year. I suspect that something else is afoot amongst institutional investors, or that algorithmic trading is cutting in to cap losses.
Did you make your purchase in certificated form? Not so common these days, but it is possible for an extra charge. More fun to have your certificate in a frame on your garage wall, beside your DB7, rather than just a broker statement.
Whenever there is an unexpected profits warning announcement, share prices usually move down sharply.
A modest reduction in revenue, can become a huge reduction in profits.
Edited by Dewi 2 on Friday 26th July 13:50
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