Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
jjwilde said:
As a programmer I can absolutely see a clear path to Tesla (and others) getting full self driving working really well.
People here acting like it's not going to happen or it can't happen are screaming at clouds. It's happening. Get with the times.
As a programmer I also agree that it will happen. Not on the current hardware and the current software is way off.People here acting like it's not going to happen or it can't happen are screaming at clouds. It's happening. Get with the times.
Our disagreement is with timing. I think it will take a lot longer than you.
I think this is the fundamental arguement and why FSD is mentioned so often in this thread. Tesla make outlandish promises and take money off people based on what the car will be able to do soon.
Inevitably the car doesn't do as promised in the timescales promised and many commentators don't think it can with the current hardware. A reasonable reason to debate Tesla's current valuation. Sadly this is shouted down at every turn by the fanatical Tesla followers rather than discussed and debated.
Even Musk himself said at a recent battery conference that the self driving goal is to relieve the boredom of driving in heavy traffic or on long distance trips and not really to replace the driver. They really could do with ironing out the many bugs in the current dumb system before a wider release of the beta version is considered.
Musk also said the EU were too conservative, something many of us see as a good thing. From what I've seen from the FSD beta videos, the system isn't safe or reliable at the moment and should in no way be released to wider and possibly much less attentive owner demograph.
Inevitably the car doesn't do as promised in the timescales promised and many commentators don't think it can with the current hardware. A reasonable reason to debate Tesla's current valuation. Sadly this is shouted down at every turn by the fanatical Tesla followers rather than discussed and debated.
Even Musk himself said at a recent battery conference that the self driving goal is to relieve the boredom of driving in heavy traffic or on long distance trips and not really to replace the driver. They really could do with ironing out the many bugs in the current dumb system before a wider release of the beta version is considered.
Musk also said the EU were too conservative, something many of us see as a good thing. From what I've seen from the FSD beta videos, the system isn't safe or reliable at the moment and should in no way be released to wider and possibly much less attentive owner demograph.
Smiljan said:
I think this is the fundamental arguement and why FSD is mentioned so often in this thread. Tesla make outlandish promises and take money off people based on what the car will be able to do soon.
Inevitably the car doesn't do as promised in the timescales promised and many commentators don't think it can with the current hardware. A reasonable reason to debate Tesla's current valuation. Sadly this is shouted down at every turn by the fanatical Tesla followers rather than discussed and debated.
Even Musk himself said at a recent battery conference that the self driving goal is to relieve the boredom of driving in heavy traffic or on long distance trips and not really to replace the driver. They really could do with ironing out the many bugs in the current dumb system before a wider release of the beta version is considered.
Musk also said the EU were too conservative, something many of us see as a good thing. From what I've seen from the FSD beta videos, the system isn't safe or reliable at the moment and should in no way be released to wider and possibly much less attentive owner demograph.
Can’t they just upgrade the hardware for the people that paid?Inevitably the car doesn't do as promised in the timescales promised and many commentators don't think it can with the current hardware. A reasonable reason to debate Tesla's current valuation. Sadly this is shouted down at every turn by the fanatical Tesla followers rather than discussed and debated.
Even Musk himself said at a recent battery conference that the self driving goal is to relieve the boredom of driving in heavy traffic or on long distance trips and not really to replace the driver. They really could do with ironing out the many bugs in the current dumb system before a wider release of the beta version is considered.
Musk also said the EU were too conservative, something many of us see as a good thing. From what I've seen from the FSD beta videos, the system isn't safe or reliable at the moment and should in no way be released to wider and possibly much less attentive owner demograph.
Order66 said:
Would be a fairly limiting constraint on the design of future hardware if it needed to fit into the housing (and indeed ethos) of the existing stuff.
Well considering the design of the model s is 8 years old and they’re still flogging it.Maybe they will need to design it into the current housing anyway
jamoor said:
Can’t they just upgrade the hardware for the people that paid?
I've just thought of a great business model. Wait for Tesla to solve the problems with FSD, buy the hardware cheap and install it in other brands of cars. If it's that easy to swap and change, why buy a Tesla to be your robotoaxi, when you can upgrade your diesel Skoda for a fraction of the price?Seems to me that if robotaxis are the future, you don't need a car company at all.
Tuna said:
I've just thought of a great business model. Wait for Tesla to solve the problems with FSD, buy the hardware cheap and install it in other brands of cars. If it's that easy to swap and change, why buy a Tesla to be your robotoaxi, when you can upgrade your diesel Skoda for a fraction of the price?
Seems to me that if robotaxis are the future, you don't need a car company at all.
Do you mean like these people or something?Seems to me that if robotaxis are the future, you don't need a car company at all.
https://driveghost.com/
https://comma.ai/
Smiljan said:
I think this is the fundamental arguement and why FSD is mentioned so often in this thread. Tesla make outlandish promises and take money off people based on what the car will be able to do soon.
Inevitably the car doesn't do as promised in the timescales promised and many commentators don't think it can with the current hardware. A reasonable reason to debate Tesla's current valuation. Sadly this is shouted down at every turn by the fanatical Tesla followers rather than discussed and debated.
Even Musk himself said at a recent battery conference that the self driving goal is to relieve the boredom of driving in heavy traffic or on long distance trips and not really to replace the driver. They really could do with ironing out the many bugs in the current dumb system before a wider release of the beta version is considered.
Musk also said the EU were too conservative, something many of us see as a good thing. From what I've seen from the FSD beta videos, the system isn't safe or reliable at the moment and should in no way be released to wider and possibly much less attentive owner demograph.
Musk also said cost to coast, feature complete, robotaxi, cars earning you money, iot will be worth 100k a year blah...Inevitably the car doesn't do as promised in the timescales promised and many commentators don't think it can with the current hardware. A reasonable reason to debate Tesla's current valuation. Sadly this is shouted down at every turn by the fanatical Tesla followers rather than discussed and debated.
Even Musk himself said at a recent battery conference that the self driving goal is to relieve the boredom of driving in heavy traffic or on long distance trips and not really to replace the driver. They really could do with ironing out the many bugs in the current dumb system before a wider release of the beta version is considered.
Musk also said the EU were too conservative, something many of us see as a good thing. From what I've seen from the FSD beta videos, the system isn't safe or reliable at the moment and should in no way be released to wider and possibly much less attentive owner demograph.
I can easily believe this will become a good driver assistance feature.
What I can't believe is this will be given any true accountability for the driving, which is the true test for "FSD", and the driver allowed to do something else, at least not for many years.
And that seems to be the difference between those that look at it objectively and those that want to believe it will succeed.
Hurdles still to be overcome, all required features to be developed, there are still gaps when looking at the US safety boards list of use cases, those features to be mature enough to be ready for prime time and not just youtube ready, Once you have a functioning car, and as Tesla don't seem to have taken the regulator on the journey so far, the approvals process and demonstration of capability. Something that all the others are still working through even with their systems. Legislative changes are required to account for a vehicle on the road thats being operated by a computer with no human responsible. Even trams have drivers who are responsible. Very few trains are fully autonomous and they're on closed systems.
So we've a car trying to drive by statistics using a 5 year old sensor suite, no meaningful regulator discussion and a series of legal hurdles to over come.
The car won't be picking you up from the pub next year and driving you home.
jamoor said:
Smiljan said:
I think this is the fundamental arguement and why FSD is mentioned so often in this thread. Tesla make outlandish promises and take money off people based on what the car will be able to do soon.
Inevitably the car doesn't do as promised in the timescales promised and many commentators don't think it can with the current hardware. A reasonable reason to debate Tesla's current valuation. Sadly this is shouted down at every turn by the fanatical Tesla followers rather than discussed and debated.
Even Musk himself said at a recent battery conference that the self driving goal is to relieve the boredom of driving in heavy traffic or on long distance trips and not really to replace the driver. They really could do with ironing out the many bugs in the current dumb system before a wider release of the beta version is considered.
Musk also said the EU were too conservative, something many of us see as a good thing. From what I've seen from the FSD beta videos, the system isn't safe or reliable at the moment and should in no way be released to wider and possibly much less attentive owner demograph.
Can’t they just upgrade the hardware for the people that paid?Inevitably the car doesn't do as promised in the timescales promised and many commentators don't think it can with the current hardware. A reasonable reason to debate Tesla's current valuation. Sadly this is shouted down at every turn by the fanatical Tesla followers rather than discussed and debated.
Even Musk himself said at a recent battery conference that the self driving goal is to relieve the boredom of driving in heavy traffic or on long distance trips and not really to replace the driver. They really could do with ironing out the many bugs in the current dumb system before a wider release of the beta version is considered.
Musk also said the EU were too conservative, something many of us see as a good thing. From what I've seen from the FSD beta videos, the system isn't safe or reliable at the moment and should in no way be released to wider and possibly much less attentive owner demograph.
jamoor said:
Tuna said:
I've just thought of a great business model. Wait for Tesla to solve the problems with FSD, buy the hardware cheap and install it in other brands of cars. If it's that easy to swap and change, why buy a Tesla to be your robotoaxi, when you can upgrade your diesel Skoda for a fraction of the price?
Seems to me that if robotaxis are the future, you don't need a car company at all.
Do you mean like these people or something?Seems to me that if robotaxis are the future, you don't need a car company at all.
https://driveghost.com/
https://comma.ai/
Smiljan said:
They can but there are already many, many customers who are on old hardware despite paying for FSD and the requisite hardware upgrades some years ago. Amplify this again with the current numbers of Model 3 and Y with FSD and it all become rather expensive.
How many of the model 3s have a FSD subscription?
jamoor said:
Smiljan said:
They can but there are already many, many customers who are on old hardware despite paying for FSD and the requisite hardware upgrades some years ago. Amplify this again with the current numbers of Model 3 and Y with FSD and it all become rather expensive.
How many of the model 3s have a FSD subscription?There seems to be a view point from those that are Pro-Tesla/FSD that the naysayers are against FSD, it will never work.
I don't think any of us believe that it will never happen, like I don't believe that there are any meaningful number of people that believe it shouldn't exist. After all, if you don't like it, just don't use it. At least until legislation changes but we're probably 100's of years away from that kind of iRobot scenario.
The timeframe thing though seems to leave us leagues apart. Some in this thread feel like FSD is here now and could be used by every car on the road and there would be very few issues. Others of us, look at the evidence of the difficulties when 1 in every 50,000/100,000? cars on the road are using this and can see nothing but disaster by the time you've multiplied that 1 in x number.
If Tesla (and/or anyone else) could demonstrate here is a working suite of hardware and software that provides full, unqualified FSD then I think 99% of us would welcome it with open arms and could understand why that company was able to reach the kind of valuation that Tesla now sits at. Instead we get the same promise's from Elon on an annual basis, very little meaningful progression towards the end goal and yet instead of the company being penalised by this the value just keeps going up which makes 0 sense to anyone with an objective view.
I don't think any of us believe that it will never happen, like I don't believe that there are any meaningful number of people that believe it shouldn't exist. After all, if you don't like it, just don't use it. At least until legislation changes but we're probably 100's of years away from that kind of iRobot scenario.
The timeframe thing though seems to leave us leagues apart. Some in this thread feel like FSD is here now and could be used by every car on the road and there would be very few issues. Others of us, look at the evidence of the difficulties when 1 in every 50,000/100,000? cars on the road are using this and can see nothing but disaster by the time you've multiplied that 1 in x number.
If Tesla (and/or anyone else) could demonstrate here is a working suite of hardware and software that provides full, unqualified FSD then I think 99% of us would welcome it with open arms and could understand why that company was able to reach the kind of valuation that Tesla now sits at. Instead we get the same promise's from Elon on an annual basis, very little meaningful progression towards the end goal and yet instead of the company being penalised by this the value just keeps going up which makes 0 sense to anyone with an objective view.
Greggsybabe said:
very little meaningful progression towards the end goal .
I agree with most of what you say apart from this point.I'd say they have made great strides in four years after they got rid of mobileye.
I don't think any other manufacturer owns their own "autopilot" instead they buy it in.
Greggsybabe said:
If Tesla (and/or anyone else) could demonstrate here is a working suite of hardware and software that provides full, unqualified FSD then I think 99% of us would welcome it with open arms and could understand why that company was able to reach the kind of valuation that Tesla now sits at. Instead we get the same promise's from Elon on an annual basis, very little meaningful progression towards the end goal and yet instead of the company being penalised by this the value just keeps going up which makes 0 sense to anyone with an objective view.
Except that, even if Tesla can achieve what many regard to be an unachievable timeframe, there is still the problem of a meaningful business model. Even if they had FSD tomorrow, there is still not the reason for the valuation they have. Technology like this is inherently replicable, and a large part of the barrier to entry is the regulatory environment. So if Tesla solve those two problems (the tech and the regulatory approvals), Intel, Nvidia, comma.ai, Waymo, Uber and me and my dog will be straight in there with competing systems. There is absolutely nothing to stop it becoming a commodity item in short time.
So where does that leave Tesla, if anyone can make a robotaxi? What makes them special? Being able to play MarioKart on your autopilot does not mark you out as unique.
And if anyone can make a robotaxi, why should anyone pay more than the slimmest margin to use one? They're replicable technology that delivers returns without (much) input. Which means institutional investors will pile in, until prices are marginally better than market returns. In the long term, your car will not make much more than if you put the money into the bank. That means a couple of thousand bucks a year, for having your car puked in, used as a mobile knocking shop and randomly vandalised. No thanks.
At the moment, this is like claiming the guy who invented cruise control or ABS brakes would take over the whole car industry. They didn't, because it became a commodity item from competing manufacturers that became ubiquitous in the industry. Sure, those manufacturers made good money, but they didn't become more wealthy than the companies that used their products. Nor did the car manufacturers that developed the technology in house. Nor would Tesla for developing FSD.
There is absolutely no logic to the idea that FSD will uniquely make Tesla rich. Sure it will radically disrupt the car industry and ownership experience, but nothing they're doing makes them so special that they won't immediately be in a highly competitive, commodity market.
Edited by Tuna on Wednesday 9th December 14:38
Tuna said:
So where does that leave Tesla, if anyone can make a robotaxi? What makes them special? Being able to play MarioKart on your autopilot does not mark you out as unique.
Elon addressed this in the 'Battery Day' speech - Superior battery tech is what they are asking shareholders to hang their hats on.I don't buy it.
Gassing Station | EV and Alternative Fuels | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff