Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

[isleofthorns]

phil4 said:

End of Quarter... the boats all arrive and cars are waiting for customers to collect. Same every quarter, big push at the end.

Stopped by the Tesla dealer to see what used stock they had... salesman was not at all interested to discuss used cars, only new cars. He was very very keen to push for December deals....

[hyphen]

Government looking at how to keep tax revenue from drivers the same, as EVs increase.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55358100

[jamoor]

hyphen said:

Government looking at how to keep tax revenue from drivers the same, as EVs increase.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55358100

They are going to tax environmentally friendly stuff next.

[anonymous-user]

Tsla shares move onto the big board on 21st

S&P 500, here it comes

[Order66]

hyphen said:

Government looking at how to keep tax revenue from drivers the same, as EVs increase.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55358100

Was always going to happen.I jumped on the EV bandwagon just now as it is absolutely the golden age for the EV:

Zero (or close to) BIK tax on a company car
No road tax
Free charging available, paid for by council (I'm in Scotland)
No CC in London
Home charging costs at approx 10% of what petrol/diesel costs would be for same range
Subsidised home charge-point installation, and able to have the company pay the rest

all of that will go away to equalise the tax loss in the next 10 years, might as well get it while I can. In the last 3 months I've done 5k miles in my EV and it's cost me personally about £20.

To bring this back on-topic, my Tesla was the best choice EV just now, but without all the cost breaks above I'd be buying a new ICE car. The Tesla has a lot of good points, but also an equal number of bad points, if it's appeal wasn't being propped up by the tax breaks I wouldn't be in one, I suspect many other drivers are the same. The lure of FSD and all the new tech isn't enough, especially when you experience the reality of the very underdeveloped software that is delivered. Tesla need to improve the product offering dramatically to keep me in their cars when the tax comes up to ICE levels, especially when the competition is advancing hugely.

[LimJim]

Sounds like a 2030 kind of problem.

[jamoor]

Order66 said:

Was always going to happen.I jumped on the EV bandwagon just now as it is absolutely the golden age for the EV:

Zero (or close to) BIK tax on a company car
No road tax
Free charging available, paid for by council (I'm in Scotland)
No CC in London
Home charging costs at approx 10% of what petrol/diesel costs would be for same range
Subsidised home charge-point installation, and able to have the company pay the rest

all of that will go away to equalise the tax loss in the next 10 years, might as well get it while I can. In the last 3 months I've done 5k miles in my EV and it's cost me personally about £20.

To bring this back on-topic, my Tesla was the best choice EV just now, but without all the cost breaks above I'd be buying a new ICE car. The Tesla has a lot of good points, but also an equal number of bad points, if it's appeal wasn't being propped up by the tax breaks I wouldn't be in one, I suspect many other drivers are the same. The lure of FSD and all the new tech isn't enough, especially when you experience the reality of the very underdeveloped software that is delivered. Tesla need to improve the product offering dramatically to keep me in their cars when the tax comes up to ICE levels, especially when the competition is advancing hugely.

The golden age was this tome last year as we had the grants

Now it’s less

[hyphen]

LimJim said:

Sounds like a 2030 kind of problem.

Indeed.But I posted it for the "evs will be cheaper to run" brigade

The fact is that government will realise maintenance costs are lower for evs, and so along with lack of fuel tax, will also find a way to make up the lost revenue and jobs from tax in garages and parts.

Its not going to be cheaper long term.

[Smiljan]

I've been following the various sites, podcasts etc.. over the last few days and there is such a massive chasm in opinions of what will happen to TSLA over the new few weeks its amazing.

No one seems to know. The Standard and Poor (S&P) 500 is such a confusing index of companies that I can't even work out why its seemingly so important for Tesla to join. What's in it for them?

I'm failing in my Google skills to find out who drops out of the index to make way for them.

Seems like they also decided to force all the trading on 1 day (today) meaning around $72 billion dollars worth of shares will need to be found and traded.

My question is - if the share price is so solid and Tesla fans so sure its undervalued and due to rise in multiples again and again - why would anyone sell them, let alone sell $72 billion worth in one day?

I'm just not grasping how it all works.

I also don't understand how an index can force investors to buy a particular share.

Before all these shenanigans I always thought the S&P Dow Jones was just a tracking index which kept track of a fixed index of companies rather than a club you join and have to abide by their rules.

All very confusing. No wonder the analysts don't have a clue where the share price will head.

[Heres Johnny]

Smiljan said:

I've been following the various sites, podcasts etc.. over the last few days and there is such a massive chasm in opinions of what will happen to TSLA over the new few weeks its amazing.

No one seems to know. The Standard and Poor (S&P) 500 is such a confusing index of companies that I can't even work out why its seemingly so important for Tesla to join. What's in it for them?

I'm failing in my Google skills to find out who drops out of the index to make way for them.

Seems like they also decided to force all the trading on 1 day (today) meaning around $72 billion dollars worth of shares will need to be found and traded.

My question is - if the share price is so solid and Tesla fans so sure its undervalued and due to rise in multiples again and again - why would anyone sell them, let alone sell $72 billion worth in one day?

I'm just not grasping how it all works.

I also don't understand how an index can force investors to buy a particular share.

Before all these shenanigans I always thought the S&P Dow Jones was just a tracking index which kept track of a fixed index of companies rather than a club you join and have to abide by their rules.

All very confusing. No wonder the analysts don't have a clue where the share price will head.

Some smart person a few years ago worked out that if you put your money into a mix of the top 100 companies (by market cap) you'd do quite well and about 1% behind what the very best fund managers could do on average. But those fund managers charged you a fee of 1% or so - so after the fees you were no better off.

The tracker funds were born that required virtually no fund management because the share holding was purely predicated on who were the top 100 shares, could charge a tiny fee and would perform as well as the managed funds. Life became much more transparent and plenty of people thought it a safer bet than investing in a fund where the guy running it couldn't really lose because he got his 1% regardless. Similar with people with private brokers etc.

All very easy until these tracker funds got so big they start to influence the market. If you had say 10 billion you had to invest in the stock market where with a view to making that 11Billion in a year (10%) where do you invest? If you buy shares on mass you push the price up if your buying is big compared to the size of the companies.

So now we have the situation that these low cost tracker funds that are linked to the index have to have the shares of that company if it enters the list. But they must also track the index so that can't necessarily buy too early nor too late and equally when do they sell the companies leaving the index?

So any company entering or leaving the relevant indexes can go through a similar cycle.

The buyers (or sellers when a share leaves the index) do not look at the value of the share and decide whether its a good buy or not based on the company fundamentals, they really don't care as thats not the game they are in, they just have to buy because its entering the index and thats the rules they follow. If that index bombs with the share in it, then so should their fund.

With lots and lots of small share holders and Musk and his family that own a sizeable chunk, you've got fewer shares than you would ordinarily expect being traded - ie 60% of the shares aren't going to be sold because the people who own them won't sell whatever the price, there’s a bigger fight over what’s left.

Edited by Heres Johnny on Friday 18th December 18:33

[Smiljan]

Thanks Johnny great explanation.

[lost in espace]

Smiljan said:

Thanks Johnny great explanation.

X2.

[Burwood]

It's a big unknown (Dec 21) because the managers of the funds will have had the option to buy before, on the day and after inclusion. They would also have had to sell down a bunch of other stocks to make room

[AstonZagato]

Heres Johnny said:

Stuff on Index Funds

S&P inclusion is even more insidious than HJ's clear explanation of passive index tracker funds. The "active managers" (fund managers who are not tied to the index) are nevertheless judged against the performance of the main index (so for US large cap managers, the S&P 500 will be their benchmark). They are, in the main, fearful that they will miss a large stock that performs well (like Tesla). So they buy some, even though they don't "need" to and even if they don't like it. They are known as "closet indexers".
Furthermore, you will have a bunch of hedge funds and banks' proprietary trading desks looking to arbitrage the inclusion - betting that the stock will rise on inclusion and the ones being kicked out will fall.
There will also be derivative contracts, issued by the banks, that will need to be rehedged.
This all adds to the potential for it to move.

[coetzeeh]

Tesla again forced to halt Berlin construction until $100m security is paid.

Tesla asked for extension to pay till January.

https://electrek.co/2020/12/18/tesla-forced-stop-c...

[Burwood]

Bureaucratic nonsense. Some jobsworth hasn't issued a permit which has been agreed.

[Smiljan]

Burwood said:

Bureaucratic nonsense. Some jobsworth hasn't issued a permit which has been agreed.

Seem more like they're being tardy with paying their bills, why would the German administrator issue a permit when they haven't paid for it?

Probably financial benefits somewhere of sticking this $100 million on next years finances.

It's going to be pretty racy getting cars out of that factory by July! Maybe they'll build another tent to make them in.

[Smiljan]

Another Model S BBQ in the states

https://insideevs.com/news/460502/another-tesla-mo...

I wonder the cause of this one?

[coetzeeh]

Smiljan said:

Seem more like they're being tardy with paying their bills, why would the German administrator issue a permit when they haven't paid for it?

Probably financial benefits somewhere of sticking this $100 million on next years finances.

It's going to be pretty racy getting cars out of that factory by July! Maybe they'll build another tent to make them in.

They will need to accrue for the liability in Q4 though if they have not done so previously.

[NDNDNDND]

Smiljan said:

Another Model S BBQ in the states

https://insideevs.com/news/460502/another-tesla-mo...

I wonder the cause of this one?

Does it matter? Stock's up anyway and the fanboys keep buying.

What would it actually take for Tesla's stock to fall, short of Elon Musk dying?