Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...

[T-195]

jjwilde said:

Do you really think that sales have nothing to do with Teslas amazing charging network & charging speeds? Like it has influenced no one? What?

Do you think people spend vastly more than they need on an EV due to supposedly superior charging networks?

Won't these cars mostly be charged at people's homes anyway?

The charging network is irrelevant to most people.

[DonkeyApple]

ntiz said:

DonkeyApple said:

ntiz said:

Only reason I considered an EV was after checking out there charging network. Same for all the other owners I know.

Without the supercharger network all the other EVs are essentially very expensive town cars. Which doesn’t bother a lot of people. But does a lot of others. If you have got 60-100k to spend on a daily driver you probably like to go on weekends away etc.

There are a surprising amount of owners on the Tesla Facebook group who have stretched themselves to get a Tesla and it’s there only car, because it’s the “best car in the world”. Those people I imagine simply can’t take the inconvenience of not having access to a charging network.

I agree. I think that’s the real power of the Tesla brand. There are consumers who just want a Tesla and at that end of the market you are looking at some consumer who only have one car so to make that the desired Tesla the charging network is actually important. However, the bulk of consumers with £60k+ to spend on a car that has drawbacks have other cars or lifestyles that don’t warrant use of non domestic charging.

For example, the EV owners that I know don’t use them for journeys that require remote charging. They are used locally, for the commute and for day trips out of London. Longer journeys are still done by plane or Rangie. I’ve not yet met anyone who only has a Tesla and has to use remote charging.

There is a third user.

Company car owners both mine and my fathers were in large part bought because of low BIK, free supercharging for life and tax right off.

I got tired of the charging but my Dad still uses his to go out to his house in France all the time because it’s totally free it’s hilarious really. He doesn’t actually like the car that much but hard to justify getting rid of free transport.

The savings are huge which is attractive to a lot of people.

The savings can be huge for a certain type of user who fits the tax profile sweet spot where EV usage style gives access to large enough subsidies while the alternative of ICE usage carries sufficient taxation punishment.

But, this only occurs for a minority of consumers because otherwise like all incentive programs it is generally designed to increase tax revenue so the program genuinely benefits a few but attracts more.

So, if you can take advantage of all the tax incentives from company car benefits, congestion charge benefits, very regular long journeys where a super charger is on your way then you have a vehicle that should genuinely be beneficial. Much like the many City consultants with second homes or hotel stays out in the Shires. You get to drive all day in central London, free parking in a growing number of places and run out to the Shires each weekend all without ever troubling yourself with the inconvenience of refuelling stop at any point.

But if you don’t own your own business or work for an employer who offers company cars so as to pay their staff less then you lose a big tax incentive. If you don’t ever need to drive around in a congestion charge zone then that’s another big incentive lost. Etc etc.

In the cold light of day, if an EV user catagorically needs access to a national charging network on a regular basis then they have purchased the incorrect tool to best fit their lifestyle. They’ve not made a purchase based on common sense but desire which is 100% absolutely fine but that doesn’t make it a valid argument that EVs need a free national fast charging network. And the stats over car usage for the UK make that all too clear anyway.

EV adoption won’t come from having a big motorway charging network and nor is it being held up by the apparent lack of it. EV adoption is purely a function of price. This ‘international hypermiling coathanger salesman’ argument is a total red herring.

The whole EV thing will only really take off in a meaningful way when the product works for the majority. The long distance brand consumer is not the majority. The majority is Marjory and Dave who just use cost effective vehicles to carry out mundane, predictable and short journeys day in day out. When EVs are cheaper than boggo ICE then we will see real commercial demand and the removal of tax incentives.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Heres Johnny said:

Tesla is a current fad. The cool car to be seen in. It’s probably going to take a fair bit of bad press for that bubble to burst, but one day they’ll be a new cool kid on the block, there always is.

Its far more than that, Musk has taken Jobs position as digital messiah. And way passed him, he's got space ships, hyperspeed trains and sent his car to mars, all whilst trying to save the planet. and smokes weed lol

Edited by Dave Hedgehog on Wednesday 14th August 12:13

[Heres Johnny]

Dave Hedgehog said:

Heres Johnny said:

Tesla is a current fad. The cool car to be seen in. It’s probably going to take a fair bit of bad press for that bubble to burst, but one day they’ll be a new cool kid on the block, there always is.

Its far more than that, Musk has taken Jobs position as digital messiah. And way passed him, he's got space ships, hyperspeed trains and sent his car to mars, all whilst trying to save the planet. and smokes weed lol

Edited by Dave Hedgehog on Wednesday 14th August 12:13

I think he'll also end up going to jail for a number of reasons

[p1stonhead]

Heres Johnny said:

Dave Hedgehog said:

Heres Johnny said:

Tesla is a current fad. The cool car to be seen in. It’s probably going to take a fair bit of bad press for that bubble to burst, but one day they’ll be a new cool kid on the block, there always is.

Its far more than that, Musk has taken Jobs position as digital messiah. And way passed him, he's got space ships, hyperspeed trains and sent his car to mars, all whilst trying to save the planet. and smokes weed lol

Edited by Dave Hedgehog on Wednesday 14th August 12:13

I think he'll also end up going to jail for a number of reasons

Rich people, let alone billionaires, are above the law in the US

[Burwood]

p1stonhead said:

Heres Johnny said:

Dave Hedgehog said:

Heres Johnny said:

Tesla is a current fad. The cool car to be seen in. It’s probably going to take a fair bit of bad press for that bubble to burst, but one day they’ll be a new cool kid on the block, there always is.

Its far more than that, Musk has taken Jobs position as digital messiah. And way passed him, he's got space ships, hyperspeed trains and sent his car to mars, all whilst trying to save the planet. and smokes weed lol

Edited by Dave Hedgehog on Wednesday 14th August 12:13

I think he'll also end up going to jail for a number of reasons

Rich people, let alone billionaires, are above the law in the US

as long as you aren't a pedo

[jamoor]

Heres Johnny said:

I’m in the camp with your dad.

Teslas price changes caused my car to lose over 10k in a weekend to the point that I may as well run it and take advantage of the free charging. A 3000 mile round trip to Italy in the last month cost nothing more than tyre rubber.

Tesla is a current fad. The cool car to be seen in. It’s probably going to take a fair bit of bad press for that bubble to burst, but one day they’ll be a new cool kid on the block, there always is.

It may be a current fad a but how long it takes to shake off is another matter, the compettive advantage that they have built up is very difficult to overcome.

[jjwilde]

Heres Johnny said:

I think he'll also end up going to jail for a number of reasons

Go on...

[Heres Johnny]

jamoor said:

It may be a current fad a but how long it takes to shake off is another matter, the compettive advantage that they have built up is very difficult to overcome.

Its not necessarily a question of other manufacturers getting a better EV to market and a charging infrastructure, its that people are buying a Tesla and not an EV. The i3 isn't a bad car, they don't sell many. The leaf isn't a dog, they don't sell many. The ipace isn't a dog, they don't sell many. Spot the trend? Its only Tesla that sell - are they the only ones with the magic formula to the extent that if audi magically came up with a charging network to the same extent as Tesla, would they sell that many EVs or would many people go, you know what, I'm still ok with an diesel.

[hyphen]

Not a company in the title, but in a similar vein, We (wework) has filed for an IPO.

It's one heck of a filing too, have a flick through
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1533523/00...

[Heres Johnny]

jjwilde said:

Heres Johnny said:

I think he'll also end up going to jail for a number of reasons

Go on...

Not hard really, the two most obvious ones he runs a massive risk over are securities fraud and corporate manslaughter. He's already dodged a few bullets.

We can also look at the state thats part funding the giga factory and the state governor looking to make a name for themselves being right royally pissed off that Musk is now building a factory in china.

If the wheels start to come off the Tesla bandwagon, you can be sure they will be circling

[Burwood]

hyphen said:

Not a company in the title, but in a similar vein, We (wework) has filed for an IPO.

It's one heck of a filing too, have a flick through
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1533523/00...

Because they have so far lost about 3b usd. In fact losses growing faster than revenue. Another useless pos

[Smiljan]

Just a casual Model X trying to park

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgHn737YcgI&fe...

I wonder how the older generation will get on with Tesla's, no gears, instant torque and 0-60 times of a 90's supercar. What could possibly go wrong?

[hyphen]

Smiljan said:

Just a casual Model X trying to park

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgHn737YcgI&fe...

I wonder how the older generation will get on with Tesla's, no gears, instant torque and 0-60 times of a 90's supercar. What could possibly go wrong?

Could have been nasty.

Wonder what happened.

[AstonZagato]

hyphen said:

Wonder what happened.

In 99.99999% of these cases, it will be the driver confusing the brake with the accelerator.

[skwdenyer]

jamoor said:

Heres Johnny said:

I’m in the camp with your dad.

Teslas price changes caused my car to lose over 10k in a weekend to the point that I may as well run it and take advantage of the free charging. A 3000 mile round trip to Italy in the last month cost nothing more than tyre rubber.

Tesla is a current fad. The cool car to be seen in. It’s probably going to take a fair bit of bad press for that bubble to burst, but one day they’ll be a new cool kid on the block, there always is.

It may be a current fad a but how long it takes to shake off is another matter, the compettive advantage that they have built up is very difficult to overcome.

I think binary thinking is a real problem here. Tesla is neither "a fad" or "not a fad."

As I've written here and elsewhere on the topic, I think it is clear Tesla have correctly identified and occupied a position in the minds of many consumers as a provider of something new and distinct from the regular car firms. It is not a "fad" in the way that term is usually used; what it is is an example of why "common sense" is a poor proxy for actual marketing knowledge, and why positioning theory, when applied well, is so powerful.

We should not be surprised, as Musk has form in this. PayPal was just one of many digital payment startups, but PayPal is the only one left standing at any scale.

Tesla do not have an unassailable position, but they have a very strong one; one that may well be robust enough to see off major threats.

[hyphen]

skwdenyer said:

We should not be surprised, as Musk has form in this. PayPal was just one of many digital payment startups, but PayPal is the only one left standing at any scale.

X.com wasn't left standing.

Elon was fired as CEO of PayPal.

skwdenyer said:

Tesla do not have an unassailable position, but they have a very strong one; one that may well be robust enough to see off major threats.

People obsessively point to the Nokia example, saying the old giants are all doomed.

But Nokia was an exception, the 'major threats' in the car industry are many, respective national government supported, deep pocketed and working in strategic alliances.

Tesla are a lone wolf that won't work with others currently, unless strategy changes, they will struggle to grow.

Edited by hyphen on Wednesday 14th August 22:57

[skwdenyer]

hyphen said:

skwdenyer said:

We should not be surprised, as Musk has form in this. PayPal was just one of many digital payment startups, but PayPal is the only one left standing at any scale.

X.com wasn't left standing.

Elon was fired as CEO of PayPal.

skwdenyer said:

Tesla do not have an unassailable position, but they have a very strong one; one that may well be robust enough to see off major threats.

People obsessively point to the Nokia example, saying the old giants are all doomed.

But Nokia was an exception, the 'major threats' in the car industry are many, respective national government supported, deep pocketed and working in strategic alliances.

Tesla are a lone wolf that won't work with others currently, unless strategy changes, they will struggle to grow.

Edited by hyphen on Wednesday 14th August 22:57

I've not mentioned Nokia at all.

The others have to work together because, frankly, they've destroyed their value proposition to the customer. The customer knows, for instance, that there's masses of dealer margin (why do you think depreciation is such a thing? the underlying car is only worth 2/3 of what you paid for it anyhow, as the rest is dealer margin, tax, etc.), so they expect big discounts. Look what happened in the USA - a regression to 3 big brands, under multiple nameplates, and ultimately no resilience, low quality, low profitability. Now see how that is starting to play out elsewhere.

Tesla don't need to be Nokia. But they can be Apple, generating the lion's share of profits and leaving the rest to fight over the remainder. They have that market power potential.

[Heres Johnny]

Perhaps you should look at Nokia, or blackberry...

Perhaps look at yahoo or lastminute.com or friendsreunited

People aren’t really moving to EVs and picking Tesla, they’re moving to Tesla.

And to me a fad is not about a marketing campaign, it’s about a social, viral craze for a brand or thing that is beyond the normal rationale and Tesla certainly fits that bill, and when that passes, you’ll find the real baseline. Tesla are getting so many things wrong at the moment that once real stories start coming out to many, once you personally know someone who’s V5 turned up with someone else’s car details, who’s brake fluid light comes on before they’ve got home, who can’t ring a service centre and the car hasn’t been activated in myTesla, who have spent 2 hours in hold for Tesla emergency help line, who’s car brake checks the car behind for no obvious reason.. they might start to have a different impression.

[anonymous-user]

some updates from model3vins - with all the previously mentioned caveats

USA seems to be doing OK



Netherlands a bit less so



Norway less so