PH Box Office Wager 2019

[ukaskew]

A box office prediction game was suggested in a thread a while back, and as it happens a pretty good scoring system already exists via the folks at SlashFilm, who run a ‘Summer Movie Wager’ each year for US box office takings between April and September (as an aside I highly recommend the podcast). For PH I figured Worldwide takings for the whole year would be the best option as it’s data that’s easy to get at and monitor.

Rules

It’s pretty simple if you want to take part, just list your top 10 prediction for worldwide box office takings for 2019 in this thread by midnight on December 31st 2018 and I’ll do the rest. To avoid any confusion I’ll be solely using the Box Office Mojo worldwide data for the entire calendar year of 2019 to score.

To make life easier for me please clearly list and number your choices, preferably with the full film title i.e. 1. The Lion King, 2. Aladdin 3. Shazam!

Scoring System

Getting number 1 or number 10 dead-on gets you 13 points (each).

The rest of the scoring goes like this:

• 10 points for numbers 2-9 dead-on
• 7 points if your pick was only one spot away from where it ended up
• 5 points if it was two spots away
• 3 points if your pick is anywhere in the Top 10

The scoring is tabulated so that you get the SINGLE HIGHEST point value for each pick- that is, if you get number ten right, you don’t get 13+3, you only get 13.


Useful Stuff

Here is an approximate schedule of 2019 releases: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_in_film

Here is the worldwide 2018 chart: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?view2=...

Inevitably most of the obvious heavy hitters are sequel/franchise films, so I’ve listed some key ones below and included the worldwide box office of their predecessor or nearest relation…

• Avengers 4 ($2046, Infinity War, 2018)
• Star Wars Episode IX ($1332, The Last Jedi, 2017)
• The Lion King ($966, Jungle Book, 2016)
• Toy Story 4 ($1066, Toy Story 3, 2010)
• Wonder Woman 1984 ($821, Wonder Woman, 2017)
• Captain Marvel ($622, Ant-Man and the Wasp, 2018)
• Aladdin ($966, Jungle Book, 2016)
• The Secret Life of Pets 2 ($875, Secret Life of Pets, 2016)
• Frozen 2 ($1276, Frozen, 2013)
• Spider-Man: Far From Home ($880, Homecoming, 2017)
• It: Chapter 2 ($700m, It, 2017)
• Shazam! ($746, Suicide Squad, 2016)
• Joker ($746, Suicide Squad, 2016)
• Lego Movie 2: The Second Part ($469, Lego Movie, 2014)
• Dumbo ($966, Jungle Book, 2016)
• MIB ($589, Men in Black, 1997)

I’ll bump this thread towards the end of December and if we have enough interest (i.e. more than a couple of entries) it’s game on!

[Moonhawk]

I dont think Star Wars episode 9 will do that well. There is still a considerable amount of unease after TLJ and it’s difficult to see how they will neatly wrap up the story - especially since most of the plot lines set up from TFA were essentially scraped.

Some of the rumoured plot points that are coming out dont fill me with confidence either.

I can see a lot of people giving it a miss. I certainly will. TLJ was the first SW movie I haven't bothered with on home media, and I havent even seen Solo.

TLJ took 35% less at the global box office compared to TFA (before factoring inflation). It wouldnt surprise me in the least if we didnt see a further drop of at least that magnitude. That could push EP9 below the $1bn mark.

I’d probably agree with the rest of your list. Avengers 4 is definately a contender for the top spot and could even exceed IW.

Edited by Moonhawk on Thursday 1st November 09:00

[ukaskew]

Late December bump if anyone is interested.

I'll go with:

1. Avengers: End Game
2. Lion King
3. Toy Story 4
4. Frozen 2
5. Star Wars Ep 9
6. Captain Marvel
7. Spider-Man: Far From Home
8. Aladdin
9. Dumbo
10. Hobbs and Shaw

Looking at five $1b dollar movies next year and Disney are surely odds-on for the biggest single year in any studios history, $10b doesn't seem to be out of the question.

Edited by ukaskew on Monday 31st December 23:11

[irocfan]

Certainly interested - have a looksee at this over the next couple of days.

[Halb]

Only just seen this exists.
well done ukasew

I'm gonna cogitate

[Mafffew]

I think the only guarantee is Avengers 4 being number one...I think the next four places will be quite close.

1. Avengers 4
2. The Lion King
3. Frozen 2
4. Star Wars Episode IX
5. Toy Story 4
6. Aladdin
7. Spider-Man: Far From Home
8. Captain Marvel
9. Wonder Woman 1984
10. Dumbo

[Halb]

A question, once we make our picks, are they 'locked in?'

[ukaskew]

Halb said:

A question, once we make our picks, are they 'locked in?'

Edits are fine up till January 1st, I guess.

[irocfan]

I'm down to 20 - some are nailed on some are wildcards... will have a think tomorrow

[Halb]

It's so difficult, especially with china wildcard. I would never have thought Venom would end up where it was this year.

[ukaskew]

Halb said:

I would never have thought Venom would end up where it was this year.

That's a good point, I don't think Venom or Bohemian Rhapsody would have been in my list, more than likely replaced by Ready Player One and Solo.

I can't call Star Wars Ep 9 at all, plus it only has 11 days on release in 2019.

Edited by ukaskew on Friday 21st December 22:29

[Halb]

I was gonna throw in Avatar2 as my secret pick, but after a quick check, it's also got 11 days, it won't crack top ten in 11 days.

[ukaskew]

Halb said:

I was gonna throw in Avatar2 as my secret pick, but after a quick check, it's also got 11 days, it won't crack top ten in 11 days.

Also, it's out in 2020

[irocfan]

Ok - here's my list at the moment...

Avengers
Captain Marvel
Toy story 4
Dumbo
Jumanji 3
Frozen 2
Star Wars 9
Pokemon
Midway
Hobbs and Shaw


a few wild cards in there - trying to be bold!!!

[Halb]

JUst noticed that Aquaman is at 11, it'l probably be 10 before the end of the year.
Aquaman WB $614.8, looking at STar wars8, most of it's cash came in 2018, but it's ranked as top of 2017.
But I guess it won't show on the 2019 list because it came out in 2018

[irocfan]

Halb said:

JUst noticed that Aquaman is at 11, it'l probably be 10 before the end of the year.
Aquaman WB $614.8, looking at STar wars8, most of it's cash came in 2018, but it's ranked as top of 2017.
But I guess it won't show on the 2019 list because it came out in 2018

presumably, it would have to be released in 2019 and close in 2019 (or at least have the majority of its B.O. there)?

[Halb]

irocfan said:

Ok - here's my list at the moment...
Avengers
Captain Marvel
Toy story 4
Dumbo
Jumanji 3
Frozen 2
Star Wars 9
Pokemon
Midway
Hobbs and Shaw
a few wild cards in there - trying to be bold!!!

SOme nice pics, I've started mine...it' turned into an excel sheet of extravaganza proportions....I may be over thinking this...
Hobbs and Shaw is a nice pic, but I'm wondering if the lack of FF title may hamper it.....

[Halb]

ukaskew said:

• Avengers 4 ($2046, Infinity War, 2018)
• Star Wars Episode IX ($1332, The Last Jedi, 2017)I reckon one needs to look at solo as well as tlj for this, it might not even be top 5
• The Lion King ($966, Jungle Book, 2016)
• Toy Story 4 ($1066, Toy Story 3, 2010)
• Wonder Woman 1984 ($821, Wonder Woman, 2017)a lot of reshoots here, they're rebooting the dceu, it might work in it's favour
• Captain Marvel ($622, Ant-Man and the Wasp, 2018)total unknown, I'd guess at 600 mill without the avengers bump
• Aladdin ($966, Jungle Book, 2016)I reckon this will be the lowest one of the live action rejigs, looks ste
• The Secret Life of Pets 2 ($875, Secret Life of Pets, 2016)
• Frozen 2 ($1276, Frozen, 2013)
• Spider-Man: Far From Home ($880, Homecoming, 2017) ppl have talked about 900 as a ceiling for Spidey, I reckon the avengers film will boost this one
• It: Chapter 2 ($700m, It, 2017)
• Shazam! ($746, Suicide Squad, 2016)this looks rather good and could be a surprise hit
• Joker ($746, Suicide Squad, 2016) this is not DCEU and won't be marketed heavily, I reckon it'll be a winner, but will be nowhere near top ten
• Lego Movie 2: The Second Part ($469, Lego Movie, 2014)
• Dumbo ($966, Jungle Book, 2016) B&tB is a closer release, I think it'll get lost
• MIB ($589, Men in Black, 1997) I think this will underperform/flop, looks bad
Looking at five $1b dollar movies next year and Disney are surely odds-on for the biggest single year in any studios history, $10b doesn't seem to be out of the question.

Finally put some thought into this. After a good look, I cannot believe how many big hitters are coming out in 2019, with so many billion dollar films or close to as precursors. I can see 5 billion dollar films or more. I can also see Disney bh slapping everyone.
the hardest to predict are the live action disney classic adaptations. B7tB was 2017's biggest film, Aladdin was 500mill back in the day and Lion King was almost 1bil, but Aladdin is a guy ritchie film. And Dumbo, which when I first heard it was made, would be a billion dollar film, but now I think it's too old and will lost in the glut of nostalgia releases. A crappy Aladdin will hamper it

[ukaskew]

Lion King will be absolutely huge, I'm sure of that, I did consider putting it at #1 just to throw the dice a bit. I think it'll be much closer to End Game than some might expect.

[Halb]

The Lion King 1994 dollars $951.6 2013 dollars $1,494.7
yeah, is good.
MY current picks

1. Avengers: Endgame 2100ish
2. The Lion King 1.4ish
3. Toy Story 4 1.3ish
4. Frozen 2 1.3ish
5. Jumanji 2 1b
6. Spider-Man: Far From Home 900-1b
7. Captain Marvel 800ish
8. Shazam! 800
9. Wonder Woman 1984 800
10. Aladdin 700
    

    ---

of course there is over saturation and windows. I've not looked at that, it's too much. Disney is being very aggressive though, and they have three live actions, one pixar, two MCU (plus SOny SPidey) and a Star wars out...ohb yeah, plus frozen