Iran possible undergroundish nuclear bomb test?
Discussion
davepoth said:
Iran wouldn't keep it a secret if they had the bomb. The only reason you would keep the bomb secret is if you are actually intending to use it.
The iodine thing is in the news now, but points toward a release somewhere around Romania.
Oh come on, don't spoil a good conspiracy theory. The iodine thing is in the news now, but points toward a release somewhere around Romania.
davepoth said:
Iran wouldn't keep it a secret if they had the bomb. The only reason you would keep the bomb secret is if you are actually intending to use it.
The iodine thing is in the news now, but points toward a release somewhere around Romania.
However the inspectors have shown Iran the sat photos of the area on a site they would like to inspect and have been refused access.The iodine thing is in the news now, but points toward a release somewhere around Romania.
There won’t be any announcement until something definite is known and the management of the information decided.
The day Chernobyl was detected there was just one news report on the midday news of an independent London radio station. They reported that all the Scandinavian radio stations were carrying stories of a radioactive cloud coming from Russia.
I heard it and asked my colleagues if they had heard it, but nobody else had, I wasn’t believed when there was nothing on the next bulletin on any channel. We had dosimeters at work and I was able to produce evidence over the next couple of hours that there was an abnormally high radiation level over Southern England (though not dangerously so).
There was nothing else broadcast until 6pm. At that time the article was buried, one sentence, second to last article, and played right down.
Considering it was the biggest story of the year and extensively reported in overseas broadcasts, it’s inconceivable that the major UK news organisations were unaware. The only credible explanation was that a DA-Notice had been implemented and the UK news consequently blacked out.
If Iran has tested a nuclear weapon then that is only half the problem. Iran also needs a delivery system. For Iran to announce a successful test before it can deliver a weapon would be premature and invite pre-emptive action to neutralise the threat. Therefore Iran will not announce a test until the weapon is fully operational.
Equally other nations will not wish to announce their awareness of an Iranian test until a response has been formulated. Perhaps not until after a response has been executed.
What is really ominous is the absence of any report of this Iodine on Al Jazeera. The acquisition of Nuclear weapons by Iran would enormously complicate Middle Eastern politics and Sunni/ Shi’a relationships. Neighbouring States would probably be very upset.
If the cause of the Iodine was a mystery to Al Jazeera then they would probably be happy to report the presence of radioactivity from an unknown source. The absence of such a report suggests it is being withheld whilst Iran’s neighbours decide what to do.
The day Chernobyl was detected there was just one news report on the midday news of an independent London radio station. They reported that all the Scandinavian radio stations were carrying stories of a radioactive cloud coming from Russia.
I heard it and asked my colleagues if they had heard it, but nobody else had, I wasn’t believed when there was nothing on the next bulletin on any channel. We had dosimeters at work and I was able to produce evidence over the next couple of hours that there was an abnormally high radiation level over Southern England (though not dangerously so).
There was nothing else broadcast until 6pm. At that time the article was buried, one sentence, second to last article, and played right down.
Considering it was the biggest story of the year and extensively reported in overseas broadcasts, it’s inconceivable that the major UK news organisations were unaware. The only credible explanation was that a DA-Notice had been implemented and the UK news consequently blacked out.
If Iran has tested a nuclear weapon then that is only half the problem. Iran also needs a delivery system. For Iran to announce a successful test before it can deliver a weapon would be premature and invite pre-emptive action to neutralise the threat. Therefore Iran will not announce a test until the weapon is fully operational.
Equally other nations will not wish to announce their awareness of an Iranian test until a response has been formulated. Perhaps not until after a response has been executed.
What is really ominous is the absence of any report of this Iodine on Al Jazeera. The acquisition of Nuclear weapons by Iran would enormously complicate Middle Eastern politics and Sunni/ Shi’a relationships. Neighbouring States would probably be very upset.
If the cause of the Iodine was a mystery to Al Jazeera then they would probably be happy to report the presence of radioactivity from an unknown source. The absence of such a report suggests it is being withheld whilst Iran’s neighbours decide what to do.
I saw a few stories on the radiation and it's thought it could be leaking from a medical research facility somewhere in the area. (http://news.softpedia.com/news/Mysterious-Radioactivity-Recorded-Over-Czech-Republic-234070.shtml)
As for the news not appearing on Al Jazeera, well, I wouldn't take that as something to be concerned about. I prefer that channel, as it gives the news for the parts of the world that our news channels (BBC, Sky etc) don't talk about, but because of that, it doesn't focus too much on events happening in the Western world.
Press TV is an Iranian channel that has some good news on it for the Middle-East, but is a bit of an odd one, and is clearly anti-Western, sometimes cringeworthily so!
As for the news not appearing on Al Jazeera, well, I wouldn't take that as something to be concerned about. I prefer that channel, as it gives the news for the parts of the world that our news channels (BBC, Sky etc) don't talk about, but because of that, it doesn't focus too much on events happening in the Western world.
Press TV is an Iranian channel that has some good news on it for the Middle-East, but is a bit of an odd one, and is clearly anti-Western, sometimes cringeworthily so!
Edited by Brigand on Saturday 12th November 22:35
Edited by Brigand on Saturday 12th November 22:38
Brigand said:
I saw a few stories on the radiation and it's thought it could be leaking from a medical research facility somewhere in the area. (http://news.softpedia.com/news/Mysterious-Radioactivity-Recorded-Over-Czech-Republic-234070.shtml)
Ah, the old medical research lab excuse......Al Jazeera is significant because it’s far better connected to sources of information within the Islamic world than any Western news agency. Also it’s not constrained by DA-Notice’s. They are usually favoured by Islamic extremists as a channel to release their message.
However Al Jazeera is based in Qatar. To some extent they must not mess on their own (or their hosts) doorstep nor antagonise their (mostly Arabic) revenue sources. This means that whilst firmly pro-Islamic they must exercise some caution in what and how they report to if it exasperates political relations between Arab nations, particularly their hosts. Nor must they alienate their Islamic fundamentalist sources.
Thus if there was a big radioactive cloud over Europe as a result of a Western accident or for indeterminate reasons it would be reported (as the will of god) without hesitation. In their paradigm there are no indeterminate reasons. Everything happens primarily because it is the will of god.
Their silence is significant because it implies that Al Jazeera knows the source of the Iodine. Since they have no motivation to protect Western governments form embarrassment it cannot be suppressing information to assist the West.
The logical conclusion is therefore that they are aware this is a Middle Eastern issue. Whilst they would certainly be happy to see the establishment of a global Islamic caliphate, they would (quite rightly) be very reluctant to see nuclear conflict between Islamic nations.
The politics of the region are complex. Iranian nuclear armament would further destabilise an already unstable region. It could precipitate either Western or Israeli intervention. Worse still it could so threaten neighbouring Islamic nations that they would publically acquiesce to, and privately solicit Western military intervention.
Curiously Al Jazeera are currently reporting an accidental explosion at ‘an arms depot’ in Iran that was felt 40Km away.
When the Americans tested the first atomic bomb during WW2 they also gave out the cover story that there had been an explosion at an arms dump in the desert.
However Al Jazeera is based in Qatar. To some extent they must not mess on their own (or their hosts) doorstep nor antagonise their (mostly Arabic) revenue sources. This means that whilst firmly pro-Islamic they must exercise some caution in what and how they report to if it exasperates political relations between Arab nations, particularly their hosts. Nor must they alienate their Islamic fundamentalist sources.
Thus if there was a big radioactive cloud over Europe as a result of a Western accident or for indeterminate reasons it would be reported (as the will of god) without hesitation. In their paradigm there are no indeterminate reasons. Everything happens primarily because it is the will of god.
Their silence is significant because it implies that Al Jazeera knows the source of the Iodine. Since they have no motivation to protect Western governments form embarrassment it cannot be suppressing information to assist the West.
The logical conclusion is therefore that they are aware this is a Middle Eastern issue. Whilst they would certainly be happy to see the establishment of a global Islamic caliphate, they would (quite rightly) be very reluctant to see nuclear conflict between Islamic nations.
The politics of the region are complex. Iranian nuclear armament would further destabilise an already unstable region. It could precipitate either Western or Israeli intervention. Worse still it could so threaten neighbouring Islamic nations that they would publically acquiesce to, and privately solicit Western military intervention.
Curiously Al Jazeera are currently reporting an accidental explosion at ‘an arms depot’ in Iran that was felt 40Km away.
When the Americans tested the first atomic bomb during WW2 they also gave out the cover story that there had been an explosion at an arms dump in the desert.
elster said:
davepoth said:
Iran wouldn't keep it a secret if they had the bomb. The only reason you would keep the bomb secret is if you are actually intending to use it.
The iodine thing is in the news now, but points toward a release somewhere around Romania.
However the inspectors have shown Iran the sat photos of the area on a site they would like to inspect and have been refused access.The iodine thing is in the news now, but points toward a release somewhere around Romania.
davepoth said:
There could well be bits of a bomb; they could well be days away from having a working one. But rest assured that if they wanted to use it diplomatically, they would tell everyone that they had the bomb. If they were going to use it, they wouldn't do a test as that would spoil the "surprise".
In nuclear terms bits of a bomb only make a relatively small explosion. The amount of conventional explosive used in a nuclear weapon to initiate criticality isn’t that large. You wouldn’t want it going off in your trousers, but you’d never hear it 40Km away. It’s not about how much explosive you use, so much as how effectively you focus the force generated.A quantity of fissionable material that is subject to explosive force without reaching criticality doesn’t contribute to the explosive force. It just produces a ‘dirty bomb’.
If the device reaches criticality then it isn’t a test of component parts; it’s a nuclear device. Since there is a minimum mass that can go critical for any given fissionable material there is a minimum size of nuclear device that can be made, although the efficiency may vary with design.
I know of no case where a State has acquired nuclear weapons without testing. Testing has several virtues. Firstly unless you test then you cannot be sure that you have actually produced a viable device. Secondly the lessons learned allow production of more efficient weapons. Thirdly it usually causes others to notice that you have acquired nuclear weapons.
The main advantage of possessing nuclear weapons is that it influences political processes without actually using the weapons. It can only exert such influence if others are aware you have a nuclear option. As such any nation acquiring nuclear weapons would ensure potential enemies got the message, although for political reasons they may not publically acknowledge this.
Hopefully what has happened here is that the Iranian nuclear ambition has been interdicted. For the government of another Islamic nation to publically acknowledge they sought or approved action against another Islamic nation would invite domestic protest particularly from Islamic extremist factions.
Politics is complex and often requires the balance of multiple competing interests. Internal factions may not approve of actions against ‘Brother Muslims’. Yet potential nuclear attacks also threaten the State and clearly would not be in the best interests of the population. The only solution is to conduct such operations in secret.
Worth a read for the political use of nuclear weapons:
www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/11/20111161...
www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/11/20111161...
Uncle Fester said:
Good stuff.
However, the only people to test and then use an A-bomb tested it without telling anyone. They didn't tell anyone they were going to use it, they didn't use it as a threat for a political end. They dropped it.If your bomb is for political ends, you would probably invite Al-Jazeera to the test so everyone knew you were "in the club".
If you actually intended to use it without working the political angle first, you'd avoid telling anyone you had it. I think I would probably avoid testing if I could; a failed fission bomb is going to make a pretty damn impressive dirty bomb anyway. Chances are everything short of the Uranium is coming from North Korea anyway, so it would have already been tested.
Brigand said:
That explosion in Iran was allegedly caused when they were "relocating ammunition inside the building."
Hmmm....
It's not the first time thats happened though, so either they are a very clumsy lot, or they've done the same, suspicious thing before...
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/11/12/world/meast/iran-blast/Hmmm....
It's not the first time thats happened though, so either they are a very clumsy lot, or they've done the same, suspicious thing before...
this one
certainly its interesting timing ..Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff