2012 economy predictions

[jonah35]

Having looked back at the start of 2011 and looked at the guesses on where the ftse would end in 2011 they all (the experts in the papers) said around 6000-6700 ish so they were all wrong.

However, can you give me your best bet for the following:

1. What will the first quarter of 2012 bring for the ftse
2. will any big names go bust in 2012 if so which (other than the obvious hmv, la senza etc)
3. what will happen to the PIIGS/EURO
4. any major other changes in q1 2012

personally i have no idea what could happen but feel that the santa rally may be over and consumers tighten their belts ahead of some headwinds.

Edited by jonah35 on Tuesday 27th December 15:54

[anonymous-user]

1. Personally I think it will drop in January, then possibly rally back to where it is now. If a eurozone country tanks then that will change, but I think a lot of the current risks are priced in at the moment.
2. Any retailers who didn't have a good Christmas period will be getting nervous now, the unseasonably warm weather can't be helping, must be a lot of heavy winter coats in the shelves still which they will want shot of before the spring ranges start appearing. If I had to bet on a biggie going it would be Argos.
3. They will try and continue to paper over the cracks, but the truth is that we all know that some of those countries are living on borrowed time.
4. So long as the Eurozone doesn't collapse I think that the UK will begin to slowly recover some momentum. Our position as one of the few solvent countries in the EU will help us borrow cheaply and give confidence to investors. I'm seeing the first glimpses of confidence returning (at least in our industry).

[Oilchange]

I think the cold spells happen later than Christmas time, try late Jan/early Feb.

[JohnnyJones]

Well ok, I'll have a go.

FTSE flat, trading within a 5-10% range.

There are a few overpriced clothing retailers who will be feeling the pinch, I'll go for GAP.

Euro, well that's the question. I reckon one of the PIIGS will default and leave Europe and the Euro early next year, causing a stampede as others do the same, possibly ending the single currency. Europe as a trading community will survive though as all the members need it to.

Any more predictions? War. Sorry but it's coming. Probably from the middle east.

[jonah35]

jonah35 said:

Having looked back at the start of 2011 and looked at the guesses on where the ftse would end in 2011 they all (the experts in the papers) said around 6000-6700 ish so they were all wrong.

However, can you give me your best bet for the following:

1. What will the first quarter of 2012 bring for the ftse
2. will any big names go bust in 2012 if so which (other than the obvious hmv, la senza etc)
3. what will happen to the PIIGS/EURO
4. any major other changes in q1 2012

personally i have no idea what could happen but feel that the santa rally may be over and consumers tighten their belts ahead of some headwinds.

Edited by jonah35 on Tuesday 27th December 15:54

ill have a go at my own game
1. ftse down to around the 5,000 level
2. a well known retailer or two that we haven't yet heard about due to rent demand but not sure who!
3. The euro crisis to deepen, possibly strong words between countries and france to become a greater issue
4. nothing major, house prices down a tickle but people becoming more fearful with some euro issues to come later on in 2012

[jonah35]

Inkyfingers said:

1. Personally I think it will drop in January, then possibly rally back to where it is now. If a eurozone country tanks then that will change, but I think a lot of the current risks are priced in at the moment.
2. Any retailers who didn't have a good Christmas period will be getting nervous now, the unseasonably warm weather can't be helping, must be a lot of heavy winter coats in the shelves still which they will want shot of before the spring ranges start appearing. If I had to bet on a biggie going it would be Argos.
3. They will try and continue to paper over the cracks, but the truth is that we all know that some of those countries are living on borrowed time.
4. So long as the Eurozone doesn't collapse I think that the UK will begin to slowly recover some momentum. Our position as one of the few solvent countries in the EU will help us borrow cheaply and give confidence to investors. I'm seeing the first glimpses of confidence returning (at least in our industry).

good points but i'll disagree with the point 4 about confidence returning (i think confidence will weaken) perhaps due to negative growth figures in the media

[thinfourth2]

Everytime the market goes down it will be front page news

Everytime the market goes up it will be ignored

[anonymous-user]

Oilchange said:

I think the cold spells happen later than Christmas time, try late Jan/early Feb.

Often yes, but you can't argue that the current weather is unseasonably warm ( i went for a walk today in juts a shirt) and plus people don't tend to do big shops in Jan/Feb.

[anonymous-user]

jonah35 said:

good points but i'll disagree with the point 4 about confidence returning (i think confidence will weaken) perhaps due to negative growth figures in the media

I know there are still a lot of people struggling but I think there is some light at the end of the tunnel. I can only really comment on my business and the fortunes of my suppliers and customers, many of whom are doing surprisingly well. Our main supplier is about to splash a serious amount of cash on new equipment and we are expanding our offering after a reasonable year.

[1point7bar]

jonah35 said:

1. What will the first quarter of 2012 bring for the ftse
Relative safe haven value (risk off) prevails and QE3 surge expected medium term.
2. will any big names go bust in 2012 if so which (other than the obvious hmv, la senza etc)
Yes, hopefully some badly risk managed banks.
3. what will happen to the PIIGS/EURO
Political football. Hyperextension most likely.
4. any major other changes in q1 2012
Sarkozy gone

Edited by 1point7bar on Tuesday 27th December 17:24

[JohnnyJones]

Well ok, I'll have a go.

FTSE flat, trading within a 5-10% range.

There are a few overpriced clothing retailers who will be feeling the pinch, I'll go for GAP.

Euro, well that's the question. I reckon one of the PIIGS will default and leave Europe and the Euro early next year, causing a stampede as others do the same, possibly ending the single currency. Europe as a trading community will survive though as all the members need it to.

Any more predictions? War. Sorry but it's coming. Probably from the middle east.

[jonah35]

Inkyfingers said:

I know there are still a lot of people struggling but I think there is some light at the end of the tunnel. I can only really comment on my business and the fortunes of my suppliers and customers, many of whom are doing surprisingly well. Our main supplier is about to splash a serious amount of cash on new equipment and we are expanding our offering after a reasonable year.

what line of biz mate?

[jonah35]

1point7bar said:

jonah35 said:

1. What will the first quarter of 2012 bring for the ftse
Relative safe haven value (risk off) prevails and QE3 surge expected medium term.
2. will any big names go bust in 2012 if so which (other than the obvious hmv, la senza etc)
Yes, hopefully some badly risk managed banks.
3. what will happen to the PIIGS/EURO
Political football. Hyperextension most likely.
4. any major other changes in q1 2012
Sarkozy gone

Edited by 1point7bar on Tuesday 27th December 17:24

seems an interesting and informed post, but you really think some banks will go? (other than some minnows)?

[0a]

Oi stop nicking my thread (sort of!)!

http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...

[1point7bar]

JohnnyJones said:

Well ok, I'll have a go.

War. Sorry but it's coming. Probably from the middle east.

Would it be too much to ask why you think so?

[jonah35]

0a said:

Oi stop nicking my thread (sort of!)!

http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...

aha, sorry didn't see it!!

[1point7bar]

This thread is more focused.

The legal definition of solvent has recently been altered for those with banking licences. Maybe should is a better description than could. Although, there is a physical limit to the market's tolerance and the obvious doom for a soft short.

[Hereward]

1point7bar said:

JohnnyJones said:

Well ok, I'll have a go.

War. Sorry but it's coming. Probably from the middle east.

Would it be too much to ask why you think so?

Iran, coupled with the fact that Israel will simply not let them get to the stage where they have a viable bomb at any cost.

[1point7bar]

Which nations would ally themselves with Iran?

[eldar]

1. What will the first quarter of 2012 bring for the ftse - Down slightly. USA improvements offset by lack of confidence in India and China
2. will any big names go bust in 2012 if so which (other than the obvious hmv, la senza etc). Major car maker, probably european, high st white goods/electronics retail chain
3. what will happen to the PIIGS/EURO. More troubles,QE but no resolution.
4. any major other changes in q1 2012. Escalating violence in middle east.