Predictions for 2012

[Tuna]

OK Gurus, time to lay it on the line.

What are your predictions for 2012? End of the Euro, elections, housing market, major events, you call it.

You get 10 points for being right, and -20 for stating the blinking obvious. Winner will be announced in 12 months - after the end times.

[The Hypno-Toad]

How many points do I get for "We're all fked"?

[Tuna]

The Hypno-Toad said:

How many points do I get for "We're all fked"?

Read the first post. -20

[Kudos]

I predict the euro will still be in business...

[TimJMS]

I predict a glorious "barbecue" summer, early hosepipe bans and very expensive supermarket veg.

[AndrewW-G]

At least one major French bank will go pop in Q1

Spain or Italy will need a very large bailout by Q2

Cameron will sell us out to the EU without any form of referendum

More riots by the feral underclass . . .. .Police response will again be to double their efforts in ignoring riots and concentrate on catching people speeding

And on the positive side, the London Olympics will be a spectacular fk up

[Pesty]

terrorist attack at the olympics

[Mr_B]

TimJMS said:

I predict a glorious "barbecue" summer, early hosepipe bans and very expensive supermarket veg.

Of all the things that could happen, expensive supermarket veg ? I want to live in your world.

[elster]

• A north/south split of the euro zone
• Unemployment to rise to 3.5m
• Rail workers will strike, tube
• Teachers will strike again
• Growth will be Q1 -0.7 Q2 -0.3 Q3 0 Q4 +0.8

[Changedmyname]

The world will end in december 2012 aparently.

[1point7bar]

Lenders of last resort become increasingly exposed, as the building blocks of the world economy fail tests for concrete cancer.
Global markets start to fragment, as national governments try to seize control of their respective economies with protectionist policies.
The tower of money is built ever higher, despite the full knowledge of its eventual collapse.
High energy prices dampen recovery.
UK property market polarises further. Lack of supply and loose fiscal policy keeps
prices bouyant.
The crystal ball is going cloudy.....

[Blib]

That the Liverpool FC thread on here won't see out the year.

[Ozzie Osmond]

Leaving aside the general doom-mongering, on this and so many other threads, you make some good points which are often overloooked,

1point7bar said:

High energy prices dampen recovery.

Oil price has swung dramatically since 2008. While retail price of petrol is not much higher than it was
before the slump it's got a lot more tax in it. Further increases appear inevitable as soon as demand picks up. Other energy prices similarly.

1point7bar said:

UK property market polarises further. Lack of supply and loose fiscal policy keeps
prices bouyant.

Not sure how those two fit together but yes, lack of supply ensures high demand. Returns from buy-to-let will surely continue to suck in money during the mortgage famine. The polarisation thing is interesting - so long as society continues to become more divided the "have" people will continue to pay ever bigger money for a nice place to live.

Edited by Ozzie Osmond on Sunday 1st January 11:45

[Hoofy]

Sort it out, Ozzie.

Oh, petrol hasn't got that much more tax in it. A weak GBP vs USD is one of the problems even if oil is a smidgeon under $100.

Edited by Hoofy on Sunday 1st January 11:44

[Ozzie Osmond]

Some predictions of my own,

1. Continuing growth of gambling and its advertising just about everywhere as ignorant fools throw more and more into their attempts to win a celebrity lifestyle.

2. Continuing growth of "payday loans" and their advertising as ignorant fools borrow money at 5,557% APR to pay off their credit card at 24% APR which is paying off their 5% mortgage.

3. Continuing inflation. The "experts" who say it will fall rapidly and stabilise are IMO miles off target. They failed to predict the arrival of inflation so their predictions of its departure should be valued accordingly.

[Hoofy]

Ozzie Osmond said:

Some predictions of my own,

1. Continuing growth of gambling and its advertising just about everywhere as ignorant fools throw more and more into their attempts to win a celebrity lifestyle.

Agreed although it might be just a vain attempt to earn money because they are in desperate need of it to pay for food etc rather than chasing a particular lifestyle. Long may it continue. I need the liquidity in Betfair.

[Ozzie Osmond]

Hoofy said:

Oh, petrol hasn't got that much more tax in it.

2007 - fuel duty was 50.35p per litre for ultra-low sulphur unleaded and 53.65p per litre for conventional unleaded petrol.

2008 - on 1 December 2008 a permanent 2p increase in fuel tax was introduced to offset the rate cut in VAT from 17.5% to 15% bringing the duty rate for the main road fuels up to 52.35p per litre.

2009 - fuel duty was 56.19p per litre.

2010 - on 1 January 2010 the VAT rate reverted to 17.5%. The 3p fuel duty rise scheduled for early 2010 was delayed in 2010 Budget with the duty going up by only 1p a litre on 1 April. This went up by another 1p a litre on 1 October 2010 and scheduled to go up by 0.76p on 1 January 2011.

2011 - the 0.76p increase on 1 January 2011 brought the duty rate for the main road fuels up to 58.95p per litre. This coincided with the 2.5% increase in VAT rate, which is now at record high of 20%.


So duty has risen by about 8p a litre and an extra 2.5% VAT on the whole lot makes about 11p a litre. Sounds quite a bit of extra tax me.

[crankedup]

Major International sporting event will be held in London. UK will win 7 Gold Medals.
Unemployment numbers will rise to above 3 million.
Bank bonus payments will be reduced by an average of 35%
The FTSE will continue to bounce along and end year at 4975.

[Hoofy]

Ozzie Osmond said:

So duty has risen by about 8p a litre and an extra 2.5% VAT on the whole lot makes about 11p a litre. Sounds quite a bit of extra tax me.

You've missed my point - the reason for the massive price rise is more the fact that GBPUSD has dropped from 2.1 to 1.5. That should have a more significant effect on prices, I'd have thought.

[Lost_BMW]

Pesty said:

terrorist attack at the olympics

Ouch!

Sadly, I fear that there may be another 'successful' terrorist attack on UK homeland soil sometime this year. I imagine it's only a matter of time and that the intelligence/security forces can't know of and stop every plot, even if it's just some lone nutter with hand weapons etc.

Oh, Happy New Year!