NVIDIA - your thoughts?

[BatForcePC]

Morning All,
A number of years ago I bought some shares in NVIDIA, really just a speculative play (I liked their graphics cards for gaming!) rather than being Mystic Meg and predicting AI would send the share price to the moon...

Anyway, now I find myself sitting on a very tidy profit and wondering, do I cash out, do I wait for the share split and ride the probable wave of new investers coming in...or do I even buy more!

I work in the AI space and am a strong believer in NVIDIA's platform and fundamentally I think it's a good company, however, I don't believe long term 1 company will be the sole provider of GPU's and Dev Platforms as AI becomes more commonplace

Genuniely interested in other peoples views...

[Simpo Two]

It has done very well. But nothing keeps going up for ever.

In situations like this my instinct is to sell part, say 30-50%. That way whether it goes up or down you can claim a win and still have a horse in the race. But keep an eye on the CGT allowance unless they're in an ISA.

[guyvert1]

If you're in the AI space, you know there are others trying to catch up, however the breadth and scale of what Nvidia has to offer now and in the future is staggering. If you don't need the money I'd just sit and watch. As also indicated above, make sure they're in a tax wrapper (isa/sipp).

[super7]

General consensus is there's still a bit of a way to go for NVIDIA.... But... Bear in mind they are a $2.59tr market cap on a revenue of $62bn and APPLE are on $2.93tr on revenue of $382bn, so for them to double again is going to take a huge increase in sales/investments.

Their datacenter business is the one that's growing mentally. New chip designs coming out as well and with the biggest problem with all the chips being the energy consumption, you can bet that when NVIDIA bring out a chip with lower power needs (2025 I believe) all the datacenter's will be upgrading to reduce power consumption.

This alone is going to drive NVIDIA sales forward...... I think it might get to $1200ish but it's getting a bit toppy. I just sold my largest investment at $1051 to trade (big gap to fill from $950) but still have a smaller investment.

[ferret50]

Sell enough to get your original stake back, then whatever happens you are playing with your profit.

My personal view is that the share price will keep rising.....

[bitchstewie]

Are we talking life changing amounts or a nice profit on what's still a bit of pocket money?

I think that would influence my thinking.

[BatForcePC]

Thanks everyone...

The demand for GPU's and data center resources will keep growing, yes other players will try and catch up but with Cuda they have a real competitive advantage, almost unsurmountable IMHO. The shareprice feels high today but that's probably more emotive as buying a single share for $1000 feels different to buying 10 at $100 each...

In terms as to whether this is life changing, no it is not. I have 11 shares and bought at an average of $170 and this is all in an ISA

[GTPork]

Set a sell price at today minus 5 or 10%, whatever you’re comfortable with. Review weekly.
If the price has gone up adjust your sell price, if it drops it sells.
Hopefully the platform you use will allow you to set an automatic sell action so you don’t need to check every 5 mins!

[Mr Overheads]

BatForcePC said:

Thanks everyone...

The demand for GPU's and data center resources will keep growing, yes other players will try and catch up but with Cuda they have a real competitive advantage, almost unsurmountable IMHO. The shareprice feels high today but that's probably more emotive as buying a single share for $1000 feels different to buying 10 at $100 each...

In terms as to whether this is life changing, no it is not. I have 11 shares and bought at an average of $170 and this is all in an ISA

So if you sell 2 shares you'll make back your original stake plus a little bit. Then hold the 9 shares, you literally can't lose any money even if they go bust and the share price then falls to zero.

[bitchstewie]

Mr Overheads said:

So if you sell 2 shares you'll make back your original stake plus a little bit. Then hold the 9 shares, you literally can't lose any money even if they go bust and the share price then falls to zero.

This is the sensible "maths" answer I think.

It comes down to how badly you need the money.

Every so often when I logon to my Amazon account I'm reminded how long I've been a member and then I look at the share price and think "if only" and have a little sob

[funinhounslow]

bhstewie said:

Every so often when I logon to my Amazon account I'm reminded how long I've been a member and then I look at the share price and think "if only" and have a little sob

I sometimes feel the same when I remember buying an iMac in 1999 - I liked it so why didn’t I buy some Apple shares too…?!

But then again my cautious nature also prevented me investing in Nokia and Blackberry…

[greengreenwood7]

@Batforce....don't know if you have access to NVDS in your ISA?
If your comfortable with doing it - could always either use any cash that's sitting in there to buy NVDS if NVDA starts to pullback, or sell the pot ( when you think its overheated) and be ready to deploy into NVDS ( the inverse of NVDA ).

We'll see, but i think talk of stocks being overvalued/crash is too early, when the rates are cut in theory it shd be full 'risk on'......so i would imagine as long as they keep producing decent numbers, it'll keep climbing.

The counter argument, is - is there a stock which you like which hasn't run up yet?
To get 50% more from NVDA is going to take a hefty move pon something that's already had a decent run.....if you have an eye on what you'd do with monies from selling, then the real Q is , which would run faster for the next 6-12mths - NVDA, or 'your other pick'.

[Mankers]

What else do you own stock / equity wise or is this a single stock play (ie undiversified)?

I don’t want to go into the mechanics of portfolio management here, would take too long!

I you are interested in semiconductor exposure, have you looked at the Vaneck semiconductor ETF?

It is essentially a basket of 20 semiconductor co’s in a
Listed ETF format. Nvidia being the largest constituent. Top 10 holdings below.

[asfault]

bhstewie said:

Are we talking life changing amounts or a nice profit on what's still a bit of pocket money?

I think that would influence my thinking.

Exactly
If i had put £500 in and its sitting at 200k id probably sell at least half and pay off the mortgage.

But if its 500 in and sitting at 5000 id probably leave it all in just now.

Edit just read the above about 11 shares at $170 so about £1500 put in and sitting on £9000?
All depends on how easyly you can replace £9000 in your life outside of shares?
If you have £2000 spare a month then id keep them as they are.
If you are on the breadline with the wolves at the door at barely scrape by month to month you might need to think about selling a couple.
Only you know your situation.

Edited by asfault on Friday 24th May 21:54

[Wololo]

funinhounslow said:

I sometimes feel the same when I remember buying an iMac in 1999 - I liked it so why didn’t I buy some Apple shares too…?!

I love a KFC; doesn't mean I own shares in Yum brands. Oh, wait, I do....

[NickZ24]

funinhounslow said:

I sometimes feel the same when I remember buying an iMac in 1999 - I liked it so why didn’t I buy some Apple shares too…?!

But then again my cautious nature also prevented me investing in Nokia and Blackberry…

1999 Nokia share price was about 4.5. 2008 you could have sold those for 20 bucks or before, 2000 the share price climbed to 30.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NOK/noki...

[CLK-GTR]

Experience says when you start getting posts on forums and conversations in pubs it's approaching the end of the cycle and it might be a good time to check your exit plan. No need to sell anything, i would place a stop loss somewhere around 15-20% beneath the current price. I think there is a correction coming possibly this summer and Nvdida will be the catalyst for it but you could miss a lot of upside before that day comes.

[bitchstewie]

I'm not so sure on that in so much as I'll bet if you go back over five or ten years there would have been similar posts about Apple or Microsoft or Amazon or any other stock or index where someone's "gut feeling" has told them it looks toppy.

[CLK-GTR]

bhstewie said:

I'm not so sure on that in so much as I'll bet if you go back over five or ten years there would have been similar posts about Apple or Microsoft or Amazon or any other stock or index where someone's "gut feeling" has told them it looks toppy.

Tesla was the last one I had that gut feel about when it was up near 400. Every man and his dog was talking about it but the numbers didnt make sense. Valuations didn't support that and I don't believe they support this either, when you start pricing stuff based on a giant 'what the world might look like years from now' fantasy you're treading on risky ground. There are too many variables, dependencies and assumptions that the company has no influence over. The gut feel bit is just an indication of when the hype may be about to pop but as I say there could a way to run yet before that happens.

[dingg]

Ride your winners cut your losers

Imo once the split happens stick a stop on them that you're comfortable with and review every so often, raise the stop as appropriate until the story changes..