Probability experts..

[cartel]

Had a bit of a heated debate in the pub this lunchtime

What is more likely...

Picking 2 separate lucky dips and them both being the same or winning the euromillions?

Edited by cartel on Friday 3rd December 19:00

[SC7]

The odds on two lucky dips being the same are exactly the same as picking the numbers that match the balls (14 million to 1?)

Euromillions is 76 million to 1.

[cartel]

SC7 said:

The odds on two lucky dips being the same are exactly the same as picking the numbers that match the balls (14 million to 1?)

Euromillions is 76 million to 1.

But my argument was that the odds of randomly choosing two tickets exactly the same are less than wining the lottery because they must have algorithms in their distribution to ensure not many people get the same ticket?

I can not get my head around it being just as likely to have 2 identical lucky dips as winning the lottery. They must be slimmer?

Disclaimer: GCSE level maths only

[Urban Sports]

cartel said:

SC7 said:

The odds on two lucky dips being the same are exactly the same as picking the numbers that match the balls (14 million to 1?)

Euromillions is 76 million to 1.

But my argument was that the odds of randomly choosing two tickets exactly the same are less than wining the lottery because they must have algorithms in their distribution to ensure not many people get the same ticket?

I can not get my head around it being just as likely to have 2 identical lucky dips as winning the lottery. They must be slimmer?

Disclaimer: GCSE level maths only

That's why sometimes more than one ticket wins the jackpot.

[SC7]

Nope, it should be completely random.

If I buy two lucky dips, I'm just as likely to get matching numbers on the second one as I am any other combination of numbers possible.

[Urban Sports]

SC7 said:

Nope, it should be completely random.

If I buy two lucky dips, I'm just as likely to get matching numbers on the second one as I am any other combination of numbers possible.

[Some Gump]

I'm not sure it is.
If you get 2 lucky dips on the same ticket, 3 of the numbers will be the same. Happened to me both times I tried it, so I now get 2 tickets...

[SC7]

Some Gump said:

I'm not sure it is.
If you get 2 lucky dips on the same ticket, 3 of the numbers will be the same. Happened to me both times I tried it, so I now get 2 tickets...

Are you winding me up?

[Some Gump]

No, thats what happens. I don't think lucky dip is entirely rzndom, poss it fills in "unsold" combinations?

[zac510]

Well a computer generated number can never be purely random. It's always derived from something for example a mathematical formula applied to the date and time but even then getting 3 numbers the same across two dips on one ticke everytime is a little bit too common to still be random.

Is there anything in the Lucky Dip small print? A lucky dip at a fair might only have a finite amount of items in it - perhaps the lottery lucky dip is the same!

[Brother D]

I thought the idea of the Lucky Dip was to allocate sets of numbers that had not yet been picked, reducing the chances of prolonged roll-overs. So not a random allocation...

[SC7]

Nope.

COMPLETELY random:

http://www.lottery.co.uk/articles/lottery-lucky-di...

(Or as mentioned above, as random as a computer can be).

[Balmoral Green]

50/50

They will match, or they won't.

Same odds as winning really, you either win, or you don't.

[SC7]

Balmoral Green said:

50/50

They will match, or they won't.

Same odds as winning really, you either win, or you don't.

If only it were that simple.

[cartel]

SC7 said:

Nope.

COMPLETELY random:

http://www.lottery.co.uk/articles/lottery-lucky-di...

(Or as mentioned above, as random as a computer can be).

That link is not working

There is no way they are totally random

Put your hand up if you have ever bought 3/4 lucky dips and been pissed off that the same numbers keep cropping up in all of them?

Happens to me all the time

That said, it is a bit of a stupid question because nobody will know how their computer works so can not calculate the probability

one of those silly pubtime discussions

[ewenm]

cartel said:

SC7 said:

Nope.

COMPLETELY random:

http://www.lottery.co.uk/articles/lottery-lucky-di...

(Or as mentioned above, as random as a computer can be).

That link is not working

There is no way they are totally random

Put your hand up if you have ever bought 3/4 lucky dips and been pissed off that the same numbers keep cropping up in all of them?

Happens to me all the time

That said, it is a bit of a stupid question because nobody will know how their computer works so can not calculate the probability

one of those silly pubtime discussions

Buying 3-4 tickets and not having any duplicated numbers would be non-random.

[cartel]

ewenm said:

cartel said:

SC7 said:

Nope.

COMPLETELY random:

http://www.lottery.co.uk/articles/lottery-lucky-di...

(Or as mentioned above, as random as a computer can be).

That link is not working

There is no way they are totally random

Put your hand up if you have ever bought 3/4 lucky dips and been pissed off that the same numbers keep cropping up in all of them?

Happens to me all the time

That said, it is a bit of a stupid question because nobody will know how their computer works so can not calculate the probability

one of those silly pubtime discussions

Buying 3-4 tickets and not having any duplicated numbers would be non-random.

What I am saying is that they seem to have the same number as a theme for each purchase. This can not be a coincidence.

For example, I have just bought 5 lucky dips. There are 3 20's. This happens regularly

What are the odds of 3 out of 5 rows consistently having the same number present in each purchase? This happens to such an extent when playing online I normally do no more than 2 lines a purchase.

Definitely not totally random

[MrPeters]

cartel said:

ewenm said:

cartel said:

SC7 said:

Nope.

COMPLETELY random:

http://www.lottery.co.uk/articles/lottery-lucky-di...

(Or as mentioned above, as random as a computer can be).

That link is not working

There is no way they are totally random

Put your hand up if you have ever bought 3/4 lucky dips and been pissed off that the same numbers keep cropping up in all of them?

Happens to me all the time

That said, it is a bit of a stupid question because nobody will know how their computer works so can not calculate the probability

one of those silly pubtime discussions

Buying 3-4 tickets and not having any duplicated numbers would be non-random.

What I am saying is that they seem to have the same number as a theme for each purchase. This can not be a coincidence.

For example, I have just bought 5 lucky dips. There are 3 20's. This happens regularly

What are the odds of 3 out of 5 rows consistently having the same number present in each purchase? This happens to such an extent when playing online I normally do no more than 2 lines a purchase.

Definitely not totally random

I spend all day selling the damn things, and to be honest, customers who buy 2x lucky dips on one ticket usually get completely different numbers.

[hairykrishna]

cartel said:

What are the odds of 3 out of 5 rows consistently having the same number present in each purchase? This happens to such an extent when playing online I normally do no more than 2 lines a purchase.

Definitely not totally random

Not as remote as you'd think. Think of the number of pairs - google birthday paradox.

[Old Gregg]

Some Gump said:

I'm not sure it is.
If you get 2 lucky dips on the same ticket, 3 of the numbers will be the same. Happened to me both times I tried it, so I now get 2 tickets...

I've read this post several times and i'm still not sure if i'm missing something, but anyway, I bought one ticket today with 4 lines on it and each line is lucky dip.

There isn't a single number that's repeated on the whole ticket. 4 lines, 6 numbers on each line, and they're all different.



edit: and I bought it online.

Edited by Old Gregg on Saturday 4th December 18:27