Emergency legislation - information and commentary
Discussion
jm doc said:
I've been busy recently and missed the ongoing discussion, thought I'd drop back in and found this gem.
You'd be right to be concerned. I'd have you lined up for an urgent colonoscopy to sort out where all the cr*p was coming from.
You’ve still not answered the question about whether you are a medical doctor or not. You keep hinting at it, but strangely won’t answer it explicitly. Why not?You'd be right to be concerned. I'd have you lined up for an urgent colonoscopy to sort out where all the cr*p was coming from.
Breadvan72 said:
Some things that I find genuinely puzzling about pro Government responses to Covid -
1. Trusting the Government. On many issues apart from Covid, the Government has shown that it cannot be trusted, but on Covid we have to accept that it's trustworthy?
2. Competence. On many issues apart from Covid, the Government has shown that it is incompetent, but on Covid we have to accept that it's competent? As to Covid-related decisions, the vaccine programme has gone well, so praise for that. PPE procurement and track and trace appear to have been disasters, with elements of grotesque incompetence and worrying signs of corruption, and there has been a general wave of public money spaffage that hasn't yet received much scrutiny.
3. Science We all love science. But the Government appears to have decided that it is only interested in some science, and likes to keep that science a bit opaque, or to favour prediction over evidence. It is very interesting to hear the evidence-based views of jm doc (who is a doctor) on the Government's response to Covid. He is not the only doctor saying similar things.
4. Constitutional and legal elasticity: the wave of Government misinformation as to what the rules have actually been (made worse by a media that have largely abandoned any scrutiny of the Government), and the deliberate blurring of guidance and law ought to ring alarm bells in a rule of law democracy, but most people seem willing just to go meh.
My views of the whole thing have changed over time. A year ago I reluctantly supported the idea of restrictions, and continued to do so for a while, but the longer the thing has gone on the more I have wondered why the Government appears to have stuck itself into a monorail. At present, I keep asking: what is the emergency in the UK that justifies emergency legislation?
A well argued and thoughtful post BV. Over the last few weeks the situation in the UK has changed a lot. Undoubtedly the vaccine programme has helped us avoid the surge seen on the continent which was likely due to one of the variants. It has also helped demonstrate that it's very unlikely that any future mutation will cause a significant impact on serious illness and death in this country. 1. Trusting the Government. On many issues apart from Covid, the Government has shown that it cannot be trusted, but on Covid we have to accept that it's trustworthy?
2. Competence. On many issues apart from Covid, the Government has shown that it is incompetent, but on Covid we have to accept that it's competent? As to Covid-related decisions, the vaccine programme has gone well, so praise for that. PPE procurement and track and trace appear to have been disasters, with elements of grotesque incompetence and worrying signs of corruption, and there has been a general wave of public money spaffage that hasn't yet received much scrutiny.
3. Science We all love science. But the Government appears to have decided that it is only interested in some science, and likes to keep that science a bit opaque, or to favour prediction over evidence. It is very interesting to hear the evidence-based views of jm doc (who is a doctor) on the Government's response to Covid. He is not the only doctor saying similar things.
4. Constitutional and legal elasticity: the wave of Government misinformation as to what the rules have actually been (made worse by a media that have largely abandoned any scrutiny of the Government), and the deliberate blurring of guidance and law ought to ring alarm bells in a rule of law democracy, but most people seem willing just to go meh.
My views of the whole thing have changed over time. A year ago I reluctantly supported the idea of restrictions, and continued to do so for a while, but the longer the thing has gone on the more I have wondered why the Government appears to have stuck itself into a monorail. At present, I keep asking: what is the emergency in the UK that justifies emergency legislation?
Edited by Breadvan72 on Wednesday 31st March 20:01
However we are still being subject to massive restrictions on our individual liberties without any evidence being presented to justify such draconian laws being imposed. The risks to people in this country are now virtually zero and as we are now well into spring there is no real prospect of the virus returning, given the way it continues to behave as a typical winter virus. (Another fact conveniently overlooked). They can't even provide evidence that the lockdown actually works, we know this is a winter virus and it classically followed that pattern last year and this year.
I could spend some time writing about the selective use of data, the scaremongering, the lack of scrutiny by the media (particularly the BBC, disgraceful), the constantly changing narrative and astonishing mission creep (remember "it's only to stop the hospitals being swamped") and above all an unelected elite making up rules, the latest being Chris Whitty telling us a few days ago that "people will need to get used to the idea that travelling abroad will be significantly different for the next few years".
However, the main point I wanted to make was about the way in which we have, quite literally, been locked up by a Government which was elected on a manifesto which contained no mention of changing radically our system of governance (unsurprisingly, given the lack of covid at the time). Like many others, I reluctantly accepted that in an emergency the Government must do what it believes to be best and understand why a lockdown was imposed last March. However, that emergency has long gone, 12 months later there is no emergency but we are still subjected to restrictions that we are told could be in place for a long time. As a result, this Government has no mandate whatsoever for continuing along this path and should either repeal the legislation or go to the country and get that mandate from the people. That's what should happen in a democracy.
unident said:
jm doc said:
I've been busy recently and missed the ongoing discussion, thought I'd drop back in and found this gem.
You'd be right to be concerned. I'd have you lined up for an urgent colonoscopy to sort out where all the cr*p was coming from.
You’ve still not answered the question about whether you are a medical doctor or not. You keep hinting at it, but strangely won’t answer it explicitly. Why not?You'd be right to be concerned. I'd have you lined up for an urgent colonoscopy to sort out where all the cr*p was coming from.
jm doc said:
unident said:
jm doc said:
I've been busy recently and missed the ongoing discussion, thought I'd drop back in and found this gem.
You'd be right to be concerned. I'd have you lined up for an urgent colonoscopy to sort out where all the cr*p was coming from.
You’ve still not answered the question about whether you are a medical doctor or not. You keep hinting at it, but strangely won’t answer it explicitly. Why not?You'd be right to be concerned. I'd have you lined up for an urgent colonoscopy to sort out where all the cr*p was coming from.
2. Why so vague? You seem very shy about answering a simple question.
Look at this terrifying emergency -
Up to and including 28 March 2021 3,141,570 people in London had received the first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 357,663 had received two doses.
On 07 April 2021 the daily number of new people tested positive for COVID-19 in London was reported as 317
The total number of COVID-19 cases identified in London is 713,470 as at 06 April 2021, this compares to 3,818,665 cases for England as a whole
In the most recent week of complete data, 27 March 2021 - 02 April 2021, 2,400 cases were identified in London, a rate of 27 cases per 100,000 population. This compares with 3,365 cases and a rate of 38 for the previous week.
In the most recent week of complete data, 27 March 2021 - 02 April 2021, 21,725 cases were identified in England as a whole, a rate of 39 cases per 100,000 population. This compares with 31,125 cases and a rate of 55 for the previous week.
https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus--co...
Nest week, you can try to hack your way through a crowd of people trying to shiver outside a pub, so that if you succeed you can shiver outside a pub. Because emergency.
Up to and including 28 March 2021 3,141,570 people in London had received the first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 357,663 had received two doses.
On 07 April 2021 the daily number of new people tested positive for COVID-19 in London was reported as 317
The total number of COVID-19 cases identified in London is 713,470 as at 06 April 2021, this compares to 3,818,665 cases for England as a whole
In the most recent week of complete data, 27 March 2021 - 02 April 2021, 2,400 cases were identified in London, a rate of 27 cases per 100,000 population. This compares with 3,365 cases and a rate of 38 for the previous week.
In the most recent week of complete data, 27 March 2021 - 02 April 2021, 21,725 cases were identified in England as a whole, a rate of 39 cases per 100,000 population. This compares with 31,125 cases and a rate of 55 for the previous week.
https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus--co...
Nest week, you can try to hack your way through a crowd of people trying to shiver outside a pub, so that if you succeed you can shiver outside a pub. Because emergency.
I agree that the data on cases / ICU / deaths at the moment is not very scary. That shows the success (for a certain definition of success) of four months of lockdown, travel bans and so on. However, the two states of "low case rate" and "ongoing public health emergency" can coexist. We saw that in late September / October last year - cases were roughly the level they are now (or even lower), but unlocking with no vaccinations plus a nasty variant saw a higher peak than the first wave.
That said, it seems highly unlikely that a sensibly calibrated model would predict a similar outcome now given the number of jabs that have happened.
That said, it seems highly unlikely that a sensibly calibrated model would predict a similar outcome now given the number of jabs that have happened.
NickCQ said:
I agree that the data on cases / ICU / deaths at the moment is not very scary. That shows the success (for a certain definition of success) of four months of lockdown, travel bans and so on. However, the two states of "low case rate" and "ongoing public health emergency" can coexist. We saw that in late September / October last year - cases were roughly the level they are now (or even lower), but unlocking with no vaccinations plus a nasty variant saw a higher peak than the first wave.
That said, it seems highly unlikely that a sensibly calibrated model would predict a similar outcome now given the number of jabs that have happened.
There is no hard evidence that lockdown has significant effect on virus transmission unless people are literally not allowed out of their houses.That said, it seems highly unlikely that a sensibly calibrated model would predict a similar outcome now given the number of jabs that have happened.
What is very clear from the data are the well established patterns of a winter virus. Infections rise rapidly in winter and disappear in the summer. That happened last year and is happening this year. However, in the UK rates are falling much more rapidly than Northern Europe which is entirely due to the success of the vaccine and the vaccine programme, and clearly demonstrates it's effectiveness not only to Covid-19 but to the latest mutations that are the source of the problem in Europe.
"Low cases rates" and "ongoing public health emergency" are mutually exclusive. If hospitals are virtually empty, infection rates low and continuing to fall and the entire at risk population vaccinated and safe, there is unequivocally no emergency.
In addition, the degree of disinformation and deception currently being perpetrated by this Government and their hand-picked "scientists" has become deeply disturbing.
jm doc said:
There is no hard evidence that lockdown has significant effect on virus transmission unless people are literally not allowed out of their houses.
I think when we discussed this before (and apologies if it wasn't you) I posted some links to Lancet studies that generally support the idea that lockdowns significantly reduce virus transmission. I don't think it is correct to say that there is "no hard evidence" of a significant effect.jm doc said:
What is very clear from the data are the well established patterns of a winter virus. Infections rise rapidly in winter and disappear in the summer. That happened last year and is happening this year. However, in the UK rates are falling much more rapidly than Northern Europe which is entirely due to the success of the vaccine and the vaccine programme, and clearly demonstrates it's effectiveness not only to Covid-19 but to the latest mutations that are the source of the problem in Europe.
Again, I am not sure that the data supports this contention. If you look at UK new case rates there is an obvious inflection point in mid November last year, which can only be a result of the six week lockdown around that time. The weather didn't get any warmer then and we didn't have any jabs until early December.jm doc said:
"Low cases rates" and "ongoing public health emergency" are mutually exclusive. If hospitals are virtually empty, infection rates low and continuing to fall and the entire at risk population vaccinated and safe, there is unequivocally no emergency.
If the bit in bold is true, then I agree it's hard to support there being a state of emergency. It seems that for whatever reason it is not fully accepted in Government that it is. My point on the two states not being mutually exclusive is really in relation to the situation last summer (when obviously the bit in bold wasn't the case).
Only, perhaps, the most avid of Covid junkies would attempt to argue that there is now a public health emergency in the UK. So why haven't all restrictions been lifted?
A friend who worked for a large broadcaster and recently moved to a large newspaper offers her theory: She sees the Government and the media locked into a feedback loop, with Johnson in particular dictated to by what he thinks the media want. Within the media, the youngest journalists clamour the loudest for fear-mongering news stories, and support of restrictions. One of the curious things about the current version of being young and progressive is that it often does not involve being attached to the traditional values of liberalism. My friend sees many of the older journalists, many of whom have prided themselves on always being on the side of progressive thinking, weakly go along with the shouty young journalists. She says that the media pattern as to C19 is similar in many ways to the media pattern on many issues that can be described for convenience as "woke" issues. An orthodoxy takes hold, and few dare challenge the orthodox messaging.
That is just the personal take of one young journalist who tries to be both progressive and liberal, and is deeply frustrated by the refusal of much of the media to challenge the line that we are all doomed and must run and hide forever. But we may be stuck with this, it seems. My friend says that there is already talk amongst journos and politicians of pushing for restrictions to return in the autumn (assuming that they go in June). The objectives of the restrictions become fuzzy. Is it the aim that nobody at all should catch or die of C19?
A friend who worked for a large broadcaster and recently moved to a large newspaper offers her theory: She sees the Government and the media locked into a feedback loop, with Johnson in particular dictated to by what he thinks the media want. Within the media, the youngest journalists clamour the loudest for fear-mongering news stories, and support of restrictions. One of the curious things about the current version of being young and progressive is that it often does not involve being attached to the traditional values of liberalism. My friend sees many of the older journalists, many of whom have prided themselves on always being on the side of progressive thinking, weakly go along with the shouty young journalists. She says that the media pattern as to C19 is similar in many ways to the media pattern on many issues that can be described for convenience as "woke" issues. An orthodoxy takes hold, and few dare challenge the orthodox messaging.
That is just the personal take of one young journalist who tries to be both progressive and liberal, and is deeply frustrated by the refusal of much of the media to challenge the line that we are all doomed and must run and hide forever. But we may be stuck with this, it seems. My friend says that there is already talk amongst journos and politicians of pushing for restrictions to return in the autumn (assuming that they go in June). The objectives of the restrictions become fuzzy. Is it the aim that nobody at all should catch or die of C19?
I fear that the Govt motivation is most easily explained by the reality that deaths are now at a ten year low. If this continues for a few months then the UKs excess deaths due to the pandemic will start to look much better and lesson the chances of a rough ride at the inevitable public enquiry.
The major criticism of Johnson’s response is still that he was slow to lockdown. He seems to have decided to counter this by being twice as slow to reopen.
Alongside this we have a population suffering various psychological conditions. The event was driven by fear induced mass hysteria. We have seen Milgrams and Aschs experiments on authority and conformity prove true on an unprecedented scale. People are institutionalised. No longer able to make their own rational decisions on risk. A lot of people have simply withdrawn, they are plodding along, doing their best to ignore the news and marking time until it’s over.
It’s fascinating to see how Govts are dragged along by public sentiment. Johnson is hostage to our ongoing fear, which he also helped to foment with his relentless propaganda. We are slowly, inexorably reaching the end of the initial crisis, but it’s not at all clear what we will replace it with.
The major criticism of Johnson’s response is still that he was slow to lockdown. He seems to have decided to counter this by being twice as slow to reopen.
Alongside this we have a population suffering various psychological conditions. The event was driven by fear induced mass hysteria. We have seen Milgrams and Aschs experiments on authority and conformity prove true on an unprecedented scale. People are institutionalised. No longer able to make their own rational decisions on risk. A lot of people have simply withdrawn, they are plodding along, doing their best to ignore the news and marking time until it’s over.
It’s fascinating to see how Govts are dragged along by public sentiment. Johnson is hostage to our ongoing fear, which he also helped to foment with his relentless propaganda. We are slowly, inexorably reaching the end of the initial crisis, but it’s not at all clear what we will replace it with.
Breadvan72 said:
Discussion of last summer is relevant only as history. There were no vaccines then.
The issue is that SAGE doesn't believe that, and the government listens (only) to SAGE.They are looking at a model output that does this, assuming restrictions are lifted in line with the current schedule:
(page 9) https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...
SAGE said:
Under the default assumptions, we expect to observe 84,400 hospital admissions (CI 20,900-
168,000) and 18,600 deaths (CI 4500-36,200) from 12th April 2021 until June 2022
This forecast is from the 29th March so takes into account the current vaccination trajectory. I would be interested to see whether the Great Barrington group or others have done their own modelling (I haven't checked) and whether there is scientific consensus on the 2021 summer peak.168,000) and 18,600 deaths (CI 4500-36,200) from 12th April 2021 until June 2022
Edited by NickCQ on Thursday 8th April 09:45
Elysium said:
I fear that the Govt motivation is most easily explained by the reality that deaths are now at a ten year low. If this continues for a few months then the UKs excess deaths due to the pandemic will start to look much better and lesson the chances of a rough ride at the inevitable public enquiry.
The major criticism of Johnson’s response is still that he was slow to lockdown. He seems to have decided to counter this by being twice as slow to reopen.
Alongside this we have a population suffering various psychological conditions. The event was driven by fear induced mass hysteria. We have seen Milgrams and Aschs experiments on authority and conformity prove true on an unprecedented scale. People are institutionalised. No longer able to make their own rational decisions on risk. A lot of people have simply withdrawn, they are plodding along, doing their best to ignore the news and marking time until it’s over.
It’s fascinating to see how Govts are dragged along by public sentiment. Johnson is hostage to our ongoing fear, which he also helped to foment with his relentless propaganda. We are slowly, inexorably reaching the end of the initial crisis, but it’s not at all clear what we will replace it with.
As one of the plodders, what else can we do?The major criticism of Johnson’s response is still that he was slow to lockdown. He seems to have decided to counter this by being twice as slow to reopen.
Alongside this we have a population suffering various psychological conditions. The event was driven by fear induced mass hysteria. We have seen Milgrams and Aschs experiments on authority and conformity prove true on an unprecedented scale. People are institutionalised. No longer able to make their own rational decisions on risk. A lot of people have simply withdrawn, they are plodding along, doing their best to ignore the news and marking time until it’s over.
It’s fascinating to see how Govts are dragged along by public sentiment. Johnson is hostage to our ongoing fear, which he also helped to foment with his relentless propaganda. We are slowly, inexorably reaching the end of the initial crisis, but it’s not at all clear what we will replace it with.
NickCQ said:
Breadvan72 said:
Discussion of last summer is relevant only as history. There were no vaccines then.
The issue is that SAGE doesn't believe that, and the government listens (only) to SAGE.They are looking at a model output that does this, assuming restrictions are lifted in line with the current schedule:
|[/url](page 9) https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...
SAGE said:
Under the default assumptions, we expect to observe 84,400 hospital admissions (CI 20,900-
168,000) and 18,600 deaths (CI 4500-36,200) from 12th April 2021 until June 2022
This forecast is from the 29th March so takes into account the current vaccination trajectory. I would be interested to see whether the Great Barrington group or others have done their own modelling (I haven't checked) and whether there is scientific consensus on the 2021 summer peak.168,000) and 18,600 deaths (CI 4500-36,200) from 12th April 2021 until June 2022
XCP said:
Elysium said:
I fear that the Govt motivation is most easily explained by the reality that deaths are now at a ten year low. If this continues for a few months then the UKs excess deaths due to the pandemic will start to look much better and lesson the chances of a rough ride at the inevitable public enquiry.
The major criticism of Johnson’s response is still that he was slow to lockdown. He seems to have decided to counter this by being twice as slow to reopen.
Alongside this we have a population suffering various psychological conditions. The event was driven by fear induced mass hysteria. We have seen Milgrams and Aschs experiments on authority and conformity prove true on an unprecedented scale. People are institutionalised. No longer able to make their own rational decisions on risk. A lot of people have simply withdrawn, they are plodding along, doing their best to ignore the news and marking time until it’s over.
It’s fascinating to see how Govts are dragged along by public sentiment. Johnson is hostage to our ongoing fear, which he also helped to foment with his relentless propaganda. We are slowly, inexorably reaching the end of the initial crisis, but it’s not at all clear what we will replace it with.
As one of the plodders, what else can we do?The major criticism of Johnson’s response is still that he was slow to lockdown. He seems to have decided to counter this by being twice as slow to reopen.
Alongside this we have a population suffering various psychological conditions. The event was driven by fear induced mass hysteria. We have seen Milgrams and Aschs experiments on authority and conformity prove true on an unprecedented scale. People are institutionalised. No longer able to make their own rational decisions on risk. A lot of people have simply withdrawn, they are plodding along, doing their best to ignore the news and marking time until it’s over.
It’s fascinating to see how Govts are dragged along by public sentiment. Johnson is hostage to our ongoing fear, which he also helped to foment with his relentless propaganda. We are slowly, inexorably reaching the end of the initial crisis, but it’s not at all clear what we will replace it with.
They have been in groups of more than 6 people. They have been in neighbours and friends houses. They have hugged loved ones. But they’re main private about it.
The Govt has driven compliance by conflating law and guidance to give the illusion that we are more restricted than we really are. For example, in law every person over 70 is vulnerable, so we have been able to leave our own homes and visit them in theirs to provide ‘support’ throughout the second and third lockdowns. Mask wearing in schools is guidance, so a parent can simply exempt their child. Exemption to mask wearing in shops is self determined. The reasons for exemption are broad enough that someone who is depressed and anxious about being forced to wear a mask could simply opt out.
This short video explains Asch’s experiments on conformity:
https://youtu.be/TYIh4MkcfJA
Public compliance with private resistance is ‘normative conformity’. In order to bring this to an end that rule breaking needs to become more overt. We need to see large scale non-compliance.
I don’t think there is any other way out of this situation as the Govt will continue to constrain our freedoms as long as we appear to accept it. Not because it is best for us, but because it is best for them.
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