Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has
Discussion
GilletteFan said:
Carl_Manchester said:
If you believe the structural decline thing then start shorting Richemont shares. There's a whole basket of watch brands in there inc. Panerai and IWC.
Caution here. Management reprice up hard, so their financials improve. They have also shifted business models with tighter controls on arms length distribution. Inventory is piling up. Basic models are being flogged at exorbitant prices. Plenty of capital to support stock price via HFT. The watch market is pretty much dead in the water and the luxury companies are being propped up as the entire industry is in poor health.
Wempe has gone, citing an incoming Rolex boutique on the street, though I am not sure that is the whole story. Russell and Bromley has closed both its stores, it appears, and there were one or two empty units. Some brands were moving along the street. Maybe I just caught it at a bad time, but it felt flat.
Louis Balfour said:
Whilst I could not claim this to be a reliable barometer of the watch or luxury market, when I was on Bond Street last week it didn't FEEL like it was in rude health.
Wempe has gone, citing an incoming Rolex boutique on the street, though I am not sure that is the whole story. Russell and Bromley has closed both its stores, it appears, and there were one or two empty units. Some brands were moving along the street. Maybe I just caught it at a bad time, but it felt flat.
If it didn't feel like things were not in rude health it means someone is doing their job properly. It costs less money to keep up appearances than to become bankrupt. It's an easy commercial decision. And let's not get the intricacies of commercial property involved here too. The luxury industry has a lot of capital behind it - if you know what is meant - and spending must happen, so you will see "people" buying. However, it has been on decline for some time. I felt a marked decline just after the Apple Watch was launched. Almost my entire professional and personal circles gave up wearing their luxury time pieces. This is when pricing really skyrocketed and value was difficult to come by. Good luck getting a ten plus year old beater for a bargain now. You will be paying much more than the hoarder did when the acquired it. What a rort. Wempe has gone, citing an incoming Rolex boutique on the street, though I am not sure that is the whole story. Russell and Bromley has closed both its stores, it appears, and there were one or two empty units. Some brands were moving along the street. Maybe I just caught it at a bad time, but it felt flat.
Out with the old and in with the new.
Edited by GilletteFan on Tuesday 4th April 08:49
GilletteFan said:
Louis Balfour said:
Presumably you mean "isn't"?
No, I meant what I wrote. I hope this still makes sense in context. I've read my statement a few times and it does. One has to think commercially to make sense of it. "If it didn't feel like things were not in rude health it means someone is doing their job properly. It costs less money to keep up appearances than to become bankrupt. It's an easy commercial decision."
So if someone was doing their job properly I would not have got the impression that Bond Street was flat. I.e. they'd have been keeping up appearances. Which they weren't.
Louis Balfour said:
You said:
"If it didn't feel like things were not in rude health it means someone is doing their job properly. It costs less money to keep up appearances than to become bankrupt. It's an easy commercial decision."
So if someone was doing their job properly I would not have got the impression that Bond Street was flat. I.e. they'd have been keeping up appearances. Which they weren't.
Watch transactions are down. If things appeared flat, they are doing a hell of a good job at keeping up appearances. Well done to them. Especially considering the environment and what's been happening in the UK behind the scenes. Again, the goal is to appear like things are slowing in line with the economy and headwinds."If it didn't feel like things were not in rude health it means someone is doing their job properly. It costs less money to keep up appearances than to become bankrupt. It's an easy commercial decision."
So if someone was doing their job properly I would not have got the impression that Bond Street was flat. I.e. they'd have been keeping up appearances. Which they weren't.
GilletteFan said:
Louis Balfour said:
You said:
"If it didn't feel like things were not in rude health it means someone is doing their job properly. It costs less money to keep up appearances than to become bankrupt. It's an easy commercial decision."
So if someone was doing their job properly I would not have got the impression that Bond Street was flat. I.e. they'd have been keeping up appearances. Which they weren't.
Watch transactions are down. If things appeared flat, they are doing a hell of a good job at keeping up appearances. Well done to them. Especially considering the environment and what's been happening in the UK behind the scenes. Again, the goal is to appear like things are slowing in line with the economy and headwinds."If it didn't feel like things were not in rude health it means someone is doing their job properly. It costs less money to keep up appearances than to become bankrupt. It's an easy commercial decision."
So if someone was doing their job properly I would not have got the impression that Bond Street was flat. I.e. they'd have been keeping up appearances. Which they weren't.
Louis Balfour said:
GilletteFan said:
Louis Balfour said:
You said:
"If it didn't feel like things were not in rude health it means someone is doing their job properly. It costs less money to keep up appearances than to become bankrupt. It's an easy commercial decision."
So if someone was doing their job properly I would not have got the impression that Bond Street was flat. I.e. they'd have been keeping up appearances. Which they weren't.
Watch transactions are down. If things appeared flat, they are doing a hell of a good job at keeping up appearances. Well done to them. Especially considering the environment and what's been happening in the UK behind the scenes. Again, the goal is to appear like things are slowing in line with the economy and headwinds."If it didn't feel like things were not in rude health it means someone is doing their job properly. It costs less money to keep up appearances than to become bankrupt. It's an easy commercial decision."
So if someone was doing their job properly I would not have got the impression that Bond Street was flat. I.e. they'd have been keeping up appearances. Which they weren't.
Saweep said:
Louis Balfour said:
GilletteFan said:
Louis Balfour said:
You said:
"If it didn't feel like things were not in rude health it means someone is doing their job properly. It costs less money to keep up appearances than to become bankrupt. It's an easy commercial decision."
So if someone was doing their job properly I would not have got the impression that Bond Street was flat. I.e. they'd have been keeping up appearances. Which they weren't.
Watch transactions are down. If things appeared flat, they are doing a hell of a good job at keeping up appearances. Well done to them. Especially considering the environment and what's been happening in the UK behind the scenes. Again, the goal is to appear like things are slowing in line with the economy and headwinds."If it didn't feel like things were not in rude health it means someone is doing their job properly. It costs less money to keep up appearances than to become bankrupt. It's an easy commercial decision."
So if someone was doing their job properly I would not have got the impression that Bond Street was flat. I.e. they'd have been keeping up appearances. Which they weren't.
In other news:
"There was no sign of a slowdown in the luxury watch market, as Watches of Switzerland reported a 17% increase in revenue for the three months to 29 January 2023..."
"In its latest accounts (Pragnells), for 12 months turnover rose by 35%."
I am sure it's not all beer and skittles in some corners of the luxury watch market, particularly for dealers in second-hand watches who have been stung by the fall from earlier ridiculous pricing.
I also doubt that the billions being invested in the sector, from Bremont to Rolex is being done recklessly.
"There was no sign of a slowdown in the luxury watch market, as Watches of Switzerland reported a 17% increase in revenue for the three months to 29 January 2023..."
"In its latest accounts (Pragnells), for 12 months turnover rose by 35%."
I am sure it's not all beer and skittles in some corners of the luxury watch market, particularly for dealers in second-hand watches who have been stung by the fall from earlier ridiculous pricing.
I also doubt that the billions being invested in the sector, from Bremont to Rolex is being done recklessly.
eccles said:
That's because you're not thinking 'Commercially'
It's apparent some people don't work in strategy, finance and other stuff that makes investor presentations/ analyst days look all snazzy and fine. It's ok. Please continue to pay the asking prices. If you do get a discount, just know you are still overpaying. There is no coming back for the Swiss watch industry. No matter how much left pocket/ right pocket antics are being used.
Out with the old and in with the new.
GilletteFan said:
eccles said:
That's because you're not thinking 'Commercially'
It's apparent some people don't work in strategy, finance and other stuff that makes investor presentations/ analyst days look all snazzy and fine. It's ok. Please continue to pay the asking prices. If you do get a discount, just know you are still overpaying. There is no coming back for the Swiss watch industry. No matter how much left pocket/ right pocket antics are being used.
Out with the old and in with the new.
Apropos of nothing, have you bought a Porsche on Ebay recently?
GilletteFan said:
It's apparent some people don't work in strategy, finance and other stuff that makes investor presentations/ analyst days look all snazzy and fine.
It's ok. Please continue to pay the asking prices. If you do get a discount, just know you are still overpaying. There is no coming back for the Swiss watch industry. No matter how much left pocket/ right pocket antics are being used.
Out with the old and in with the new.
I don't think you'd face much argument from anybody on this thread in stating that luxury watches are overpriced for what they are, to be honest. It's a case of whether people are willing to pay that premium, and of course many are.It's ok. Please continue to pay the asking prices. If you do get a discount, just know you are still overpaying. There is no coming back for the Swiss watch industry. No matter how much left pocket/ right pocket antics are being used.
Out with the old and in with the new.
A Dublin jeweller and watch dealer must be feeling nervous with six new boutiques. Some of them opened just before Christmas. I haven't been recently but they should be all open now. I assume he signed the leases and supplier contracts when the watch market was much more buoyant.
THE IRISH TIMES - Paul Sheeran Jewellers to open six luxury watch ‘boutiques’ off Grafton Street
THE IRISH TIMES - Paul Sheeran Jewellers to open six luxury watch ‘boutiques’ off Grafton Street
Edited by minimalist on Tuesday 4th April 12:44
tangerine_sedge said:
Oh! You work in finance, I can remember another poster who worked in finance who left PH for a while. Interesting posting history you've got, huuuuuge gaps in posting then suddenly a flurry across several threads.
Apropos of nothing, have you bought a Porsche on Ebay recently?
WB posts made even less sense than this guys. Apropos of nothing, have you bought a Porsche on Ebay recently?
As NDA reports above, numbers are the numbers. I’m on a conference currently, many folk wearing luxury watches. Some wearing smart watches.
NDA said:
In other news:
"There was no sign of a slowdown in the luxury watch market, as Watches of Switzerland reported a 17% increase in revenue for the three months to 29 January 2023..."
"In its latest accounts (Pragnells), for 12 months turnover rose by 35%."
I am sure it's not all beer and skittles in some corners of the luxury watch market, particularly for dealers in second-hand watches who have been stung by the fall from earlier ridiculous pricing.
I also doubt that the billions being invested in the sector, from Bremont to Rolex is being done recklessly.
But....all the cool kids have had their fun and got out!"There was no sign of a slowdown in the luxury watch market, as Watches of Switzerland reported a 17% increase in revenue for the three months to 29 January 2023..."
"In its latest accounts (Pragnells), for 12 months turnover rose by 35%."
I am sure it's not all beer and skittles in some corners of the luxury watch market, particularly for dealers in second-hand watches who have been stung by the fall from earlier ridiculous pricing.
I also doubt that the billions being invested in the sector, from Bremont to Rolex is being done recklessly.
I'm totally convinced things are all good with the luxury watch industry even though Morgan Stanley provided some insightful research figures. And, the lower the base, the easier it is to demonstrate a higher percentage improvement. For example, Random Swiss Watch Company using Manufacture movement with amazing history is up 25% quarter-on-quarter. In real numbers, I sold 5 watches versus 4 the last reporting quarter. And all of them were to my good pals.
Having said this, I totally believe all the statistics, rhyme and reason conveyed. Don't worry too much as I doubt anyone reading my posts on this topic would believe me anyways that the watch industry is dead in the water. After all, what would I know?
Having said this, I totally believe all the statistics, rhyme and reason conveyed. Don't worry too much as I doubt anyone reading my posts on this topic would believe me anyways that the watch industry is dead in the water. After all, what would I know?
iphonedyou said:
GilletteFan said:
It's apparent some people don't work in strategy, finance and other stuff that makes investor presentations/ analyst days look all snazzy and fine.
It's ok. Please continue to pay the asking prices. If you do get a discount, just know you are still overpaying. There is no coming back for the Swiss watch industry. No matter how much left pocket/ right pocket antics are being used.
Out with the old and in with the new.
I don't think you'd face much argument from anybody on this thread in stating that luxury watches are overpriced for what they are, to be honest. It's a case of whether people are willing to pay that premium, and of course many are.It's ok. Please continue to pay the asking prices. If you do get a discount, just know you are still overpaying. There is no coming back for the Swiss watch industry. No matter how much left pocket/ right pocket antics are being used.
Out with the old and in with the new.
Saweep said:
Louis Balfour said:
GilletteFan said:
Louis Balfour said:
You said:
"If it didn't feel like things were not in rude health it means someone is doing their job properly. It costs less money to keep up appearances than to become bankrupt. It's an easy commercial decision."
So if someone was doing their job properly I would not have got the impression that Bond Street was flat. I.e. they'd have been keeping up appearances. Which they weren't.
Watch transactions are down. If things appeared flat, they are doing a hell of a good job at keeping up appearances. Well done to them. Especially considering the environment and what's been happening in the UK behind the scenes. Again, the goal is to appear like things are slowing in line with the economy and headwinds."If it didn't feel like things were not in rude health it means someone is doing their job properly. It costs less money to keep up appearances than to become bankrupt. It's an easy commercial decision."
So if someone was doing their job properly I would not have got the impression that Bond Street was flat. I.e. they'd have been keeping up appearances. Which they weren't.
NDA said:
l
I also doubt that the billions being invested in the sector, from Bremont to Rolex is being done recklessly.
These are all slow ships aren’t they. It does feel a little like these companies were investing and increasing prices while the sun shined, but now it isn’t. I also doubt that the billions being invested in the sector, from Bremont to Rolex is being done recklessly.
The watch industry took blows in 2008 as well, but it’s still here.
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