Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has
Discussion
It is a fairly ridiculous situation - but quite simply caused by a low supply and a high demand.
I follow the American Rolex forums and it's just as bad, if not worse... 'what gift can I buy my AD?' being fairly typical. I read a post only yesterday from someone who had spent tens of thousands at a particular dealer being told that the less desirable model had to be bought simultaneously with the high demand model - regardless of previous purchases.
From the retailers perspective, if you have 3 watches and 300 customers for it, what are you going to do? Cherrypick your most valuable clients? First come first served? Who would you rather please/or disappoint?
If I really wanted a particular model, I would buy an unworn example from a dealer - I would pay 20% or so over retail and probably save money rather than being stuck with a load of Calatravas or Cellinis that I don't want and can't sell.
I follow the American Rolex forums and it's just as bad, if not worse... 'what gift can I buy my AD?' being fairly typical. I read a post only yesterday from someone who had spent tens of thousands at a particular dealer being told that the less desirable model had to be bought simultaneously with the high demand model - regardless of previous purchases.
From the retailers perspective, if you have 3 watches and 300 customers for it, what are you going to do? Cherrypick your most valuable clients? First come first served? Who would you rather please/or disappoint?
If I really wanted a particular model, I would buy an unworn example from a dealer - I would pay 20% or so over retail and probably save money rather than being stuck with a load of Calatravas or Cellinis that I don't want and can't sell.
I'm not sure why Rolex, with the benefit of the having all the data, don't swap production from models that no bugger wants into models that every bugger wants, and put their prices up even further.
Not to the point that they completely satisfy demand, but to the point that they make a greater margin on the watches that some mad people are prepared to prostitute themselves to buy.
Not to the point that they completely satisfy demand, but to the point that they make a greater margin on the watches that some mad people are prepared to prostitute themselves to buy.
My question for the knowledgeable folk on here would be: where are all the 'less desirable' models? They would have to trade at a discount to list if they're available off the peg, no? If anyone can just walk in and pick them up, and ADs are forcing them on people as the 'ticket' for a steel diver, then there must be a bargain somewhere? Assuming one is willing to wear the less popular style, that is.
Can anyone point me in the right direction? Maybe my Chrono24 skills are just lacking...
Can anyone point me in the right direction? Maybe my Chrono24 skills are just lacking...
SpeckledJim said:
I'm not sure why Rolex, with the benefit of the having all the data, don't swap production from models that no bugger wants into models that every bugger wants, and put their prices up even further.
Not to the point that they completely satisfy demand, but to the point that they make a greater margin on the watches that some mad people are prepared to prostitute themselves to buy.
If they were a publicly owned company driven by shareholder returns maybe they would. But they are owned by a Charitable Trust. So. I'm not sure who the board actually answer to.Not to the point that they completely satisfy demand, but to the point that they make a greater margin on the watches that some mad people are prepared to prostitute themselves to buy.
SpeckledJim said:
I'm not sure why Rolex, with the benefit of the having all the data, don't swap production from models that no bugger wants into models that every bugger wants, and put their prices up even further.
Not to the point that they completely satisfy demand, but to the point that they make a greater margin on the watches that some mad people are prepared to prostitute themselves to buy.
I'm pretty sure Rolex sells everything they make already.Not to the point that they completely satisfy demand, but to the point that they make a greater margin on the watches that some mad people are prepared to prostitute themselves to buy.
Presumably, as a highly-successful business and brand, they're happy with their current production output & marketing approach.
On social media etc. the sought-after Stainless Steel Sports models like the Daytona, Submariner, GMT-Master garner attention.
However, it's arguable that the purest essence of Rolex's ethos & history is the DateJust, and I'd be confident it's their biggest seller by volume, and wanted by many.
I wouldn't be so sure that the average Rolex buyer is as obsessed with Sports watches as many might think.
There's plenty of oligarchs and reality TV numpties to buy all the garish precious metal stuff, plastered in diamonds.
And I bet Rolex makes an even better profit margin on precious metal models than they do Stainless Steel Submariners etc.
It's a balancing act.
Thierry Stern takes exactly the same approach with the Patek Philipe Nautilus.
Part of the reason those Stainless Steel Sports models are so coveted in the first place is BECAUSE they are hard to buy.
Sure, skewing production to churn out more of them would satisfy many now, but at what cost to future desirability & brand image? What happened when Burberry became ubiquitous and the opposite of 'exclusive'?
And what does flooding the market with Stainless Steel Sports models do to those existing Rolex customers - and repeat buyers - who love to see their 'investment' creep upwards in pricing whilst the models remain hotly in demand?
Increasing pricing by 50-75% in one fell swoop might solve a few problems, but when re-sale or grey values start to drop below RRP, how enamoured with Rolex will those new buyers be then (I'm talking about those who buy more with an eye on re-sale)?
Does any of this really ultimately dissuade Rolex buyers overall, or are there still more people clamouring at the ADs?
When you pick a restaurant whilst strolling around on holiday in some foreign city, do you pick the one with nobody inside, or the one that's doing a roaring trade? Why do some restauranteurs not allow booking but instead encourage queues outside the door, or if they do allow booking then make a big song & dance about their waiting list? Hype. Lemmings. Wanting to be part of the club.
The irony is that the thing most are bemoaning - scarcity - is the exact same thing that drives many to want a Rolex in the first place: perceived exclusivity (clearly not of production numbers, but instead ownership), self-congratulatory hype on instagram, extremely strong second-hand sales value, the 'I got the call' nonsense etc.
And it would be helpful if people stopped conflating the actions of an AD, with the actions of Rolex. They are two separate legal entities. Yes, the latter's production ethos impacts the approach of the former, but it doesn't dictate how they c*ck about with lists, relationships, treatment of customers etc.
But it's all hot air, nobody reads anything, everyone has an opinion on Rolex, and this thread will run for another 100 pages no doubt. And it's probably exactly what Rolex likes - to be talked about.
lowdrag said:
I walked into the Mercedes dealers once, having seen an E class coupe on the turntable. The salesman got me a coffee and we sat down to discuss the car. A battered lorry parked up outside, full of old washing machines etc, Two "gentlemen" descended and entered the showroom. Embarrassed, the salesman excused himself and went to get rid of them. The conversation was short; they asked how much, he gave the figure, and they left, only to return with an attaché case full of notes. I was forthwith ignored. I have never been back to that dealership. From posts in this thread, some of you might take the same line. Or go back with a wad of cash.
I walked into an AD from the beach, complete with flip flops, cargo shorts & a scruffy tee. I'd stopped briefly at my apt on the way to pick up some cash.Said "I'll have the GMT", gave them 5k cash, walked out with the watch. Nobody batted an eye. Things are different in the Gulf!!
GT03ROB said:
lowdrag said:
I walked into the Mercedes dealers once, having seen an E class coupe on the turntable. The salesman got me a coffee and we sat down to discuss the car. A battered lorry parked up outside, full of old washing machines etc, Two "gentlemen" descended and entered the showroom. Embarrassed, the salesman excused himself and went to get rid of them. The conversation was short; they asked how much, he gave the figure, and they left, only to return with an attaché case full of notes. I was forthwith ignored. I have never been back to that dealership. From posts in this thread, some of you might take the same line. Or go back with a wad of cash.
I walked into an AD from the beach, complete with flip flops, cargo shorts & a scruffy tee. I'd stopped briefly at my apt on the way to pick up some cash.Said "I'll have the GMT", gave them 5k cash, walked out with the watch. Nobody batted an eye. Things are different in the Gulf!!
Drl22 said:
ruprechtmonkeyboy said:
And that's the problem in a nutshell. People just want to walk in and buy a watch, not build a relationship!
Actually what you’ve said is the problem. You should not have to “build a relationship” to buy a product. No other industry works that way. So I'm still not exactly enamoured of Rolex's games.
Edited by Harry Flashman on Thursday 26th November 21:09
GT03ROB said:
Jules360 said:
I assume this was a while back ? I can assure you that Rolexes are just as hard to come by in the Gulf right now as anywhere else.
About 3 years ago. In Kuwait you could get any SS bar the Daytona just walking in. There were 3 AD's in a small area all same ownership. Things went mental in a hurry in mid 2018-ish.
Lord Marylebone said:
3 Years ago you could pretty much walk in anywhere and walk out with a SS Rolex bar the Daytona.
Things went mental in a hurry in mid 2018-ish.
It’s kind of interesting reading threads on watch forums from before it all went a bit wild. Still a lot of appreciation for the brand and their watches, but a totally different tone to the discussions compared to now. Things went mental in a hurry in mid 2018-ish.
Lord Marylebone said:
lowdrag said:
Hurry up lads and ladesses! You only have another page and a half to be able to celebrate 50 pages of pretty useless drivel.
Great contribution there.Also, it’s only 25 pages if you have your settings the same as I do.
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