Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has

[RMDB9]

Wheneva I see the word "drivel" it Makes Me think of Gravel on my Drive.

[richthebike]

RMDB9 said:

Wheneva I see the word "drivel" it Makes Me think of Gravel on my Drive.

That's more like it

[z4RRSchris]

gregs656 said:

It’s kind of interesting reading threads on watch forums from before it all went a bit wild. Still a lot of appreciation for the brand and their watches, but a totally different tone to the discussions compared to now.

happens with everything, including the supercar forums on here, and an art forum i used to inhabit.

as soon as people think they can make some cash out of it, the tone changes

[peklim]

I was thinking of buying a Hulk on ebay but it was cash only on collection,& the thought of going hundreds of miles to the seller with a bag of cash & risk being mugged to buy a possibly stolen watch made me come to my senses!Still I suppose some people are desperate enough to do this & pay these prices or can afford to take the risk..

[anonymous-user]

peklim said:

I was thinking of buying a Hulk on ebay but it was cash only on collection,& the thought of going hundreds of miles to the seller with a bag of cash & risk being mugged to buy a possibly stolen watch made me come to my senses!Still I suppose some people are desperate enough to do this & pay these prices or can afford to take the risk..

If you are a member of any of the big UK 'Luxury watch' groups on Facebook, you will see that not a month goes by without at least 1 or 2 people posting to warn others of the fact they were just scammed or flat-out robbed during a watch deal.

It happens all the time, and in a variety of ways. Someone selling an indistinguishable 'superclone' as the real thing, someone simply not having anything to sell but robbing you via Paypal then posting you a brick via Special Delivery to 'prove' they sent a watch, or there have been a few cases people have been physically robbed at knifepoint when turning up to an address with the cash.

There has even been a few cases of someone doing 'the old switcheroo'. Showing someone a real watch to check, then when they box it up for them, it's a fake. Sellers also get sticked up by this, and someone shows them counting real cash in an envelope, but when the envelope is handed over, the cash is fake.

There have been issues for sellers as well. Same applies as the above. People have been robbed at knifepoint by the 'buyer', others have been paid by bank transfer while the buyer was stood in their living room, then the money transaction was reversed as soon as the buyer left with the watch, and so on.

None of this has put me off buying or selling privately. I am just massively suspicious of everyone, assume they are robbing me, and remain on high alert until the deal is done.

I accept I may get robbed, but I still like to buy and sell watches privately, saving anything from a few hundred to a couple of thousand per watch over used watch dealers.

If you do not like the idea of getting robbed, then it will be best to stick to reputable dealers and jewellers.

When buying or selling, always remember the words of Robert De Niro in Ronin: "Whenever there is any doubt, there is no doubt"

[z4RRSchris]

or meet in a bank, and put the cash into the account there and then. loads of CCTV

Ive done this with art before.

[Graemsay]

Philips sold a new Rolex Oyster Perpetual 36 with the coral dial at the weekend for HKD 107,100, which is about £10,300. That is over twice the retail price for what is their bread and butter watch!

https://www.phillips.com/detail/rolex/HK080220/815...

The bubble abides.

[PM3]

Graemsay said:

Philips sold a new Rolex Oyster Perpetual 36 with the coral dial at the weekend for HKD 107,100, which is about £10,300. That is over twice the retail price for what is their bread and butter watch!

https://www.phillips.com/detail/rolex/HK080220/815...

The bubble abides.

Meanwhile back at the ranch in England..... Same for 7,350 ( which is still a huge over markup ) https://www.maunderwatches.co.uk/shop/preowned-wat...

[richthebike]

I'm sure its just pandemic + new release driving the OP market, but they seem to be relatively hard to get in store.

All the people commenting on Rolex releasing a boring 2020 line up must be feeling a bit silly. When the updates make the entry level watch command 100% overs you know you've got it right.

I guess they saw people buying multiple watches, and though this is a good way to keep them happy. I know people who have their sights on a the blue, the Tiffany and the yellow all in the same case size. Lets face it, at retail, if you have the money, why not? Three for the price of one Daytona that you couldn't get anyway.

[paulqv]

I have never posted on a watch forum before. My partner bought a date adjust in september and Asked the dealer about the green face sub. At the time I didn't realise that the Hulk was a collectable watch. Anyway, i then found out that Rolex changed it and it no longer had the green dial which is why i liked it. So i asked the dealer if she could get me a bi metal sub, which she got me within a few weeks although I had to decide quickly if I wanted it or not. I have always liked the bi metal one with the blue dial and therefore agreed to buy it.
I have quite few other watches and just like wearing them. Oddly as i understand it we both wear our watches and TBH am not to concerned what the resale value will be as it will have a value someday in the future

We found the local Rolex dealer to be really nice and friendly. got us watches quickly and without fuss. It would appear we were quite lucky. These were our first Rolex's although I had bought another watch from the same group a few months before.

[Ed T]

Might seem controversial but the new unworn Rolex subs (Date and no date) don’t seem like bad value on the grey market. I would of course much rather have one new at £7/8k. This will not happen.

I’ve been looking at 16570 polar exp 2 to purchase before Xmas, a watch that I thought could be had for £5/6k is now £7.5/8.6 for a UK watch with papers in good condition. A black GMT is at its cheapest c11k/£13k then you know the rest on Pepsi’s etc...

Yet the new unworn sub is c£10/11k - I might get flamed here but I was emailing a dealer about a historically unpopular 16570 at £8.5k, for me a jump to £10.5k is not significant and it’s new!. Also surely these won’t tank back to list on the used market.

I had dismissed it as how dare they charge me more than list - to, I’m going to buy a nice watch may as well punt for the one i’ll like the most. It will not be sold, never sold a watch don’t plan on starting.

What are the views on this logic?

[richthebike]

Ed T said:

Might seem controversial but the new unworn Rolex subs (Date and no date) don’t seem like bad value on the grey market. I would of course much rather have one new at £7/8k. This will not happen.

I’ve been looking at 16570 polar exp 2 to purchase before Xmas, a watch that I thought could be had for £5/6k is now £7.5/8.6 for a UK watch with papers in good condition. A black GMT is at its cheapest c11k/£13k then you know the rest on Pepsi’s etc...

Yet the new unworn sub is c£10/11k - I might get flamed here but I was emailing a dealer about a historically unpopular 16570 at £8.5k, for me a jump to £10.5k is not significant and it’s new!. Also surely these won’t tank back to list on the used market.

I had dismissed it as how dare they charge me more than list - to, I’m going to buy a nice watch may as well punt for the one i’ll like the most. It will not be sold, never sold a watch don’t plan on starting.

What are the views on this logic?

Have you tried an AD? There will be a wait but you'll probably get one at list price some time in 2021.

I can thoroughly recommend the 2020 subs.
If you like a larger watch then don't overlook a Sea Dweller. These are fairly easily had at retail. If I had to pick from 124060 and 126600 it would be the SD43.

[hkz286]

Ed T said:

Might seem controversial but the new unworn Rolex subs (Date and no date) don’t seem like bad value on the grey market. I would of course much rather have one new at £7/8k. This will not happen.

I’ve been looking at 16570 polar exp 2 to purchase before Xmas, a watch that I thought could be had for £5/6k is now £7.5/8.6 for a UK watch with papers in good condition. A black GMT is at its cheapest c11k/£13k then you know the rest on Pepsi’s etc...

Yet the new unworn sub is c£10/11k - I might get flamed here but I was emailing a dealer about a historically unpopular 16570 at £8.5k, for me a jump to £10.5k is not significant and it’s new!. Also surely these won’t tank back to list on the used market.

I had dismissed it as how dare they charge me more than list - to, I’m going to buy a nice watch may as well punt for the one i’ll like the most. It will not be sold, never sold a watch don’t plan on starting.

What are the views on this logic?

hey dude, do you mean a 216570? thats the one with the orange gmt hand? the 16570 is fairly old and im pretty sure you can still get them for about 5/6k? thats the one with the red hand (long and thin)

only asking as if your searching for the wrong reference and wanted an older one, it might put you back in your budget?

i only know because i have had my eye on a 216570 for a few years (only recently have been able to afford one) and like you have noticed the price going up and up. Still, 1k over list for a brand new sports model rolex is apparently as cheap as they get :P

[Ed T]

HKZ - yes they have been steadily going up haven’t they I’ve been tracking also - same for exp 1 114270 (which I bought couple of months ago)

It is the older one the 16570 I’ve been looking at - punch in polar 16570 located in the UK into Chrono24 and they are expensive! Maybe I stop being picky about location - I do feel safer getting it from a UK dealer.

There are only 12 polars in the UK with that reference. Even in the states the cheapest battered version with no box and papers are c.5k. There is one in the UK at £8.7k!

So 7-8k on a 16570 or £10k on a new sub? Hmmm

Rich- I do prefer a smaller watch and thinner watch to be honest. I have tried an AD and signed up for an Exp 1 a while ago (nothing yet), going back in person from the 2nd Dec onwards to put a name down again puts me off. I’m also impatient.

[Carl_Manchester]

Ed T said:

What are the views on this logic?

It’s dumb money inflating the market. at that level you might as well stump the extra for a VC Overseas and don’t lose a penny later. Dumb money will just pay for the Rolex and flex it on instagram.

[Dezbo]

Ed T said:

Might seem controversial but the new unworn Rolex subs (Date and no date) don’t seem like bad value on the grey market. I would of course much rather have one new at £7/8k. This will not happen.

I’ve been looking at 16570 polar exp 2 to purchase before Xmas, a watch that I thought could be had for £5/6k is now £7.5/8.6 for a UK watch with papers in good condition. A black GMT is at its cheapest c11k/£13k then you know the rest on Pepsi’s etc...

Yet the new unworn sub is c£10/11k - I might get flamed here but I was emailing a dealer about a historically unpopular 16570 at £8.5k, for me a jump to £10.5k is not significant and it’s new!. Also surely these won’t tank back to list on the used market.

I had dismissed it as how dare they charge me more than list - to, I’m going to buy a nice watch may as well punt for the one i’ll like the most. It will not be sold, never sold a watch don’t plan on starting.

What are the views on this logic?

I’ve been having the same internal debate regarding a Batman. I’ve come to the view that given I would have no plan to sell it unless I came on hard times, I can’t bring myself to pay a 50% premium on it, even if it would likely hold over list value if I had cause to sell. I would rather spend similar on a bi-metal, even if it will never increase in value like the steel one, although would hope it would retain value if I was ever forced to liquidate.

[anonymous-user]

Dezbo said:

I’ve been having the same internal debate regarding a Batman. I’ve come to the view that given I would have no plan to sell it unless I came on hard times, I can’t bring myself to pay a 50% premium on it, even if it would likely hold over list value if I had cause to sell. I would rather spend similar on a bi-metal, even if it will never increase in value like the steel one, although would hope it would retain value if I was ever forced to liquidate.

I just wouldn't pay £13,000 for what is an ordinary mass produced steel sports watch. For that money I would want something a bit more special and possibly a little more rare.

I'm getting pretty bored with seeing Batman/Hulk/etc models worn in every YouTube video, Instagram post, and also seemingly in every meeting I attend at work!

Just as an aside, have you seen how many Batman GMT's are for sale right now? Absolutely loads of them.

[Dezbo]

Lord Marylebone said:

I just wouldn't pay £13,000 for what is an ordinary mass produced steel sports watch. For that money I would want something a bit more special and possibly a little more rare.

I'm getting pretty bored with seeing Batman/Hulk/etc models worn in every YouTube video, Instagram post, and also seemingly in every meeting I attend at work!

Just as an aside, have you seen how many Batman GMT's are for sale right now? Absolutely loads of them.

Agree with all that you’ve said. I just happened to like the Batman before I realised how popular they are with the social media crowd unfortunately, got my timing all wrong! Agree there are loads on the grey market - none approaching sensible prices although I’ve not tried offering on any of them. Would only consider paying a very small premium for a new/unworn model at best and the bubble means we’re a long way from that scenario at the moment sadly

[anonymous-user]

Dezbo said:

Agree with all that you’ve said. I just happened to like the Batman before I realised how popular they are with the social media crowd unfortunately, got my timing all wrong! Agree there are loads on the grey market - none approaching sensible prices although I’ve not tried offering on any of them. Would only consider paying a very small premium for a new/unworn model at best and the bubble means we’re a long way from that scenario at the moment sadly

I don't think the bubble is bursting anytime soon, which I guess means we are back to the whole point of this thread

Global demand for Rolex is so high that many models will become ever more difficult to buy from an AD, and now that the AD's have got a taste for this whole "Spend £10-15k with us and we might invite you to buy one", they aren't going to go backwards now.

Places like China, India, South Korea, Indonesia etc have a rapidly growing a middle class, and many will want a Rolex, this will only increase the difficulty in buying watches in UK/EU as the years progress.

[anonymous-user]

A recorded phone call to a UK Rolex AD.

Apparently a new green bezel Sub isn’t available at all... But if you buy a lot of jewellery, it will become available.

https://youtu.be/cv3GhO0z9Kk