Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has

[That_White_GT3]

I wonder how many people on the list would now drop out if an AD called to say their allocation has come in...

[MrJuice]

2022 datejust sold for £9000 incl fees on watch collecting. List is £8000

I think that spells the end to datejusts being sold above list because now there will be minimal margin for a flipper, if anything. Demand will therefore drop off completely (from flippers, at least)

[simong800]

Meanwhile over on the Rolex forums the mods are immediately closing any threads that mention market prices and banning users who start them

[anonymous-user]

That_White_GT3 said:

I wonder how many people on the list would now drop out if an AD called to say their allocation has come in...

I guess it depends on their reasons for buying. If they are buying because they always wanted that particular model, and they intend to wear and/or keep it, then they will still go ahead.

But, if you follow the Rolex chat groups on Facebook/Reddit, a lot more people seem to be 'getting the call' now. People with little to no spend history and who had been waiting months if not a year or so, and didn't really expect to be able to buy anything. That alone tells me that the people who have spent the last 3 years out of their AD every few months with a new watch to flip aren't buying as many as they did, and therefore AD's are actually having to dust off their 'waiting lists' which we assumed had been binned 3-4 years ago.

si800 said:

Not sure if the same group, but seen the following today;

BLNR at £13k (granted no B&P), there is a private seller with a full set for £13.25k on c24
White dial Explorer II 2019 with B&P £8.7k
White gold Daytona on Oysterflex 116519 £35k

Latest auction on watchcollecting was a white gold blue dial daytona 116509 with a max bid at £33k!! RRP = £32 450, the cheapest on Chrono 24 is £49k and the market peaked at £60k.

So white Gold Daytona, white gold sub and rose gold day date all seen around MSRP already.

The annoying thing is of course, that in 2018 my wife caught me looking at a Batman in the window of a local jewellers, and it was £6500. She was saying "Just buy it if you like it" and was reluctant because I had just bought my GMT 12 months earlier (£5400) and really didn't need another watch of that value so soon, so I didn't buy it... All richer in hindsight and all that!

I still think £5000-6000 is 'enough' to pay for one of these watches, all things considered, hence why buying used suited me just fine back then. Maybe I'm just a pauper!

[wong]

si800 said:

Meanwhile over on the Rolex forums the mods are immediately closing any threads that mention market prices and banning users who start them

That's harsh!
Reveals what kind of forum it is.

[Legacywr]

I’d take a punt on a white gold Daytona at list if anybody’s jumping ship

[Essarell]

That_White_GT3 said:

I wonder how many people on the list would now drop out if an AD called to say their allocation has come in...

Interestingly that could be me, I’m patiently waiting for a Polar Explorer, I have a holiday at the end of August and I’d love to wear it on that trip. If that deadline passes I may not bother.

[CharlesdeGaulle]

That_White_GT3 said:

I wonder how many people on the list would now drop out if an AD called to say their allocation has come in...

I'm not on a list, and have never fellated no history with 'my' AD. I'd happily buy any of the relatively few Rolex I like at RRP, but the idea of paying extra is madness to me.

The sooner things get back to normal the better as far as I'm concerned. No sympathy at all for the dealers or speculators. None.

[pincher]

What’s the actual list price of a Sea Dweller?

[paulguitar]

pincher said:

What’s the actual list price of a Sea Dweller?

£10,300.

[pincher]

Thanks.

I should really have just looked on the Rolex website, shouldn’t I?

[Mariosbt]

That_White_GT3 said:

I wonder how many people on the list would now drop out if an AD called to say their allocation has come in...

This has seriously crossed my mind!

I have a wait of about another 4 months

But I really can’t wait! A good friend of mine was in our local this evening, sporting his recently acquired time piece…….. arrrrgh!

All good fun really.

[Pro Bono]

So to answer the original question, 2½ years later, yes, it has.

[Pflanzgarten]

Prices are still above what they were last year, for most models.

A dip from the beginning of this year but I personally don’t see it, what I do see is a lot of posts (not just on PH) talking up the market crash.

I have a sneaky suspicion this is those with sour grapes wishing ill on those who’ve made money.

The fact that a Datejust is still selling at auction (which is always cheaper than a “trusted” bricks and mortar shop and will always be seen as a risky purchase by a large %) is proof the market is still healthy. A Datejust!

[funinhounslow]

wong said:

si800 said:

Meanwhile over on the Rolex forums the mods are immediately closing any threads that mention market prices and banning users who start them

That's harsh!
Reveals what kind of forum it is.

Can’t upset the “trusted sellers” can we…

[Ninjin]

si800 said:

Meanwhile over on the Rolex forums the mods are immediately closing any threads that mention market prices and banning users who start them

I think thats more to the fact that the mods are fed up of TRF turning into a investment discussion forum over the last few years, rather than protecting the grey dealers.

[Adrian W]

That_White_GT3 said:

I wonder how many people on the list would now drop out if an AD called to say their allocation has come in...

but remember it isn't an allocation, the list is merely an expression of interest,

Will be interesting to see if Goldsmiths ever call me about the Pepsi.

[untakenname]

With hindsight it's odd to look back even two months and see how wrong the general view going forward was on both Rolex and Bitcoin

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=84903...

I have a workmate who last year started 'investing' into some watch scheme where you joint buy/crowdsource high end watches and supposedly get decent returns, will find out how that's doing.

[Mariosbt]

Adrian W said:

but remember it isn't an allocation, the list is merely an expression of interest,

Will be interesting to see if Goldsmiths ever call me about the Pepsi.

Heaven forbid. I put on here a few months ago, that I had ‘ordered’ a Rolex from my AD, who I have used a few times previously.

I just about escaped a public flogging!

[simong800]

Pflanzgarten said:

A dip from the beginning of this year but I personally don’t see it, what I do see is a lot of posts (not just on PH) talking up the market crash.

Genuinely surprised that you wouldn't see a 50% price drop in 2 months as a crash - what would have to happen for you to see it?