Ukrainian Air Force
Discussion
768 said:
I suspect that's what the Russians want you think, I'm not sure it's the reality.
All weapons can be used for offence, they don't stop working over the Russian border. It might even be easier to get a javelin to Moscow than an F16. If we give the Ukrainians a Typhoon and they head straight for Moscow on some desperate mission with it, risking their highly coveted new asset, I suspect that works more in Russia's favour. The Russians don't want this spilling out of Ukraine, they're not coping well with that as it is. An excuse to tell the West that they were right? Putin's desperate for that.
I am absolutely certain it is the reality, as its been the containment protocol as envisioned by George F. Kennan immediately after the second world war and right the way through the cold war.All weapons can be used for offence, they don't stop working over the Russian border. It might even be easier to get a javelin to Moscow than an F16. If we give the Ukrainians a Typhoon and they head straight for Moscow on some desperate mission with it, risking their highly coveted new asset, I suspect that works more in Russia's favour. The Russians don't want this spilling out of Ukraine, they're not coping well with that as it is. An excuse to tell the West that they were right? Putin's desperate for that.
The west resists, contains, pressures but make no mistake, Russia remains a very deadly adversary, history tells us we should remain cautious.
Bear in mind we only hear news from our western perspective.
This is not a war in as much as a direct conflict between two armies on neutral ground. This is an invasion. The Ukraine is never going to invade Russia, install a government of their choosing and rule by proxy. That would be Ukraine winning in that view.
Ukraine can only lose, or draw, i.e. a return to it's pre 2014 borders.
Even in that best case of expelling the Russians from Ukrainian land, Ukraine has been devastated, depopulated, de industrialized, and littered with land mines, not to mention the human cost.
All we hear is Russia loses this, This many Russian troops died today, etc. It makes us think the Russia is weak, dumb or foolish. It is in reality none of those and we should bear reality in mind. We want to poke the bear back to its territory, but we'd be suicidal to poke it any further.
I kind of agree with some of what you said. Even if Ukraine regains all its territory it will be a destroyed country and will take many years to rebuild.
Can’t see an end to the conflict unless something happens to Putin or China stops aligning with them. China is the key player here but they are showing an alignment with Russia that is a little uncomfortable.
The rest of the West is economically broke, with problems in their own countries to keep this support for many years. I think 1-2 more years and Ukraine is on their own or be pushed to sign a deal of sorts. In 10 years time Russia will repeat the process, that’s how they operate.
China is the main challenge I think, but we are too dependent on their industry that we cannot afford to live without Chinese goods. It’s silly but they have us over a barrel I think.
Can’t see an end to the conflict unless something happens to Putin or China stops aligning with them. China is the key player here but they are showing an alignment with Russia that is a little uncomfortable.
The rest of the West is economically broke, with problems in their own countries to keep this support for many years. I think 1-2 more years and Ukraine is on their own or be pushed to sign a deal of sorts. In 10 years time Russia will repeat the process, that’s how they operate.
China is the main challenge I think, but we are too dependent on their industry that we cannot afford to live without Chinese goods. It’s silly but they have us over a barrel I think.
CrgT16 said:
...we are too dependent on their industry that we cannot afford to live without Chinese goods. It’s silly but they have us over a barrel I think.
Of course we can.Name something China produces that is essential.
Double points if it's something that China produces c.50% or more of the world's current supply of.
China is arguably the one that needs to tread carefully:-
- Their economy is ENTIRELY dependent on continuing to export cheap tat to the West. Any sanctions risk sending them into a full-blown recession.
- They're trying to develop influence/control over 3rd world countries, but a lot of that is around resource control and geopolitics, not new markets for them.
havoc said:
Name something China produces that is essential.
At the moment due to stupid political decisions, lithium batteries that all those EVs need.And "cobalt specialist suppliers Darton Commodities estimate that Chinese refineries supplied 85% of the world’s battery-ready cobalt last year"
FourWheelDrift said:
havoc said:
Name something China produces that is essential.
At the moment due to stupid political decisions, lithium batteries that all those EVs need.And "cobalt specialist suppliers Darton Commodities estimate that Chinese refineries supplied 85% of the world’s battery-ready cobalt last year"
However, as for the next 7 years (at least), BEVs aren't specifically essential, that gives the West 7 years to negotiate with all these new sources of cobalt that have been found, and build the required refineries. We can still shut China off between now and then...and I'll wager that the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from them not burning 100* coal-fired power stations to produce our cheap tat will outweigh any short-term increase in vehicle CO2 emissions from us not buying as many BEVs.
(...and the consequent global recession will probably help too! :shrug:
)Anyway, a little O/T. Sorry.
* Number made up for effect!
havoc said:
Name something China produces that is essential.
Double points if it's something that China produces c.50% or more of the world's current supply of.
China is arguably the one that needs to tread carefully:-
- Their economy is ENTIRELY dependent on continuing to export cheap tat to the West. Any sanctions risk sending them into a full-blown recession.
I agree with the latter part but to answer your question….aspirin and other pharmaceuticals Double points if it's something that China produces c.50% or more of the world's current supply of.
China is arguably the one that needs to tread carefully:-
- Their economy is ENTIRELY dependent on continuing to export cheap tat to the West. Any sanctions risk sending them into a full-blown recession.
havoc said:
FourWheelDrift said:
havoc said:
Name something China produces that is essential.
At the moment due to stupid political decisions, lithium batteries that all those EVs need.And "cobalt specialist suppliers Darton Commodities estimate that Chinese refineries supplied 85% of the world’s battery-ready cobalt last year"
However, as for the next 7 years (at least), BEVs aren't specifically essential, that gives the West 7 years to negotiate with all these new sources of cobalt that have been found, and build the required refineries. We can still shut China off between now and then...and I'll wager that the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from them not burning 100* coal-fired power stations to produce our cheap tat will outweigh any short-term increase in vehicle CO2 emissions from us not buying as many BEVs.
(...and the consequent global recession will probably help too! :shrug:
)Anyway, a little O/T. Sorry.
* Number made up for effect!
https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-em...
andyA700 said:
China is a massive country with a massive population. If you had actually bothered to look at polluting countries per capita, then China is quite a way down the list.
https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-em...
I wasn't talking per-capita. I was talking overall.https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-em...
They manufacture more than any other country, and a lot of their power is still fossil-fuelled, including coal. We outsourced our pollution to them, not caring. Stopping consuming their tat will reduce the world's carbon emissions significantly.
havoc said:
andyA700 said:
China is a massive country with a massive population. If you had actually bothered to look at polluting countries per capita, then China is quite a way down the list.
https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-em...
I wasn't talking per-capita. I was talking overall.https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-em...
Simpo Two said:
Yep, if you're talking about how much CO2 a country emits to affect the world, that's the figure that's important, not 'per capita' which essentially means they have lots of poor people (but lots of industry).
Sorry, but I disagree.China and India (among others), over the last 70 years or so since WW2, have been more than happy to benefit from Western-led advances in medicine and farming to improve their population survival rates / life expectancies, without ANY attempt* to control their population size, and between them they now have more people than the WHOLE PLANET had in 1950.
(Europe has grown by <50% over 70 years, N.America by ~120% (mostly driven by the USA, of which >40% of that figure is from immigration not natural growth), Asia by >200% even with China's policy.)
THAT is frankly abhorrent. and to then claim that they should be able to consume and pollute at the same per-capita rate as the more population-stable West is the height of arrogance and displays complete contempt for the planet and our (supposed) stewardship of it.
Sorry HM.
* China's 1-child policy window aside
Anyway, back on topic. Ukraine now has 4 more MiG-29s at their disposal, courtesy of Slovakia.
https://youtu.be/Cho-7Lsa8O8
https://youtu.be/Cho-7Lsa8O8
LotusOmega375D said:
How do you think the UAF will get on with its Storm Shadow missiles? Apparently they cost about £2m each, so they had better not waste them. Hopefully we’ll soon start hearing about some key targets being destroyed.
£2m in today's money, they cost a lot less 30 years ago.The pilot is just the delivery truck, the pilot probably doesn't even know the target, they simply fly to a pre-planned release point, complete the release manoeuvre, and away she goes on the flight plan that was uploaded before take off.
I expect those flight plans will be heavily influenced by Western intelligence.
LotusOmega375D said:
How do you think the UAF will get on with its Storm Shadow missiles? Apparently they cost about £2m each, so they had better not waste them. Hopefully we’ll soon start hearing about some key targets being destroyed.
There's a likely hood one was used yesterday, to hit that large building in Luhansk being used as a RF command centre..........given the accuracy involved, and distance behind the RF lines.aeropilot said:
LotusOmega375D said:
How do you think the UAF will get on with its Storm Shadow missiles? Apparently they cost about £2m each, so they had better not waste them. Hopefully we’ll soon start hearing about some key targets being destroyed.
There's a likely hood one was used yesterday, to hit that large building in Luhansk being used as a RF command centre..........given the accuracy involved, and distance behind the RF lines.Gassing Station | Boats, Planes & Trains | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff