Crash at Shoreham Air show
Discussion
wobert said:
The 5 whys is an industry process to try and establish “root cause” usually used in conjunction with an 8D analysis.
Yes I agree, I used the term root cause incorrectly the not pulling out at the apex of the loop was just the last chance to sort out the mistake rather than the root cause.So what do you think the “root cause” in this crash actually was and how do your 5 whys lead you to it in this instance?
El stovey said:
That’s just a load of questions? Is the cause not known yet then? Genuinely I thought it was thought to be the height at the top of the loop.
Isn’t that what normally happens, you start at the correct speed and height (which he didn’t do) climb using enough power and get to the top of the loop and check the speed and height and if it’s not enough then disbandon the manoeuvre regardless of what’s gone on before, that’s your last big gate to sort it out? I’ve not done much aerobatics but isn’t that what you’d do?
Obviously there may be loads of contributing factors that led the guy not being high enough at the top like speed and height at the bottom and power settings in the climb training and regency and mindset and culture within the operation and possible medical and physical issues etc etc
I don't understand the last few posts but according to the AAIB report you're correct.Isn’t that what normally happens, you start at the correct speed and height (which he didn’t do) climb using enough power and get to the top of the loop and check the speed and height and if it’s not enough then disbandon the manoeuvre regardless of what’s gone on before, that’s your last big gate to sort it out? I’ve not done much aerobatics but isn’t that what you’d do?
Obviously there may be loads of contributing factors that led the guy not being high enough at the top like speed and height at the bottom and power settings in the climb training and regency and mindset and culture within the operation and possible medical and physical issues etc etc
The two causal factors, from their report, are pretty much what you've written.
El stovey said:
wobert said:
The 5 whys is an industry process to try and establish “root cause” usually used in conjunction with an 8D analysis.
Yes I agree, I used the term root cause incorrectly the not pulling out at the apex of the loop was just the last chance to sort out the mistake rather than the root cause.So what do you think the “root cause” in this crash actually was and how do your 5 whys lead you to it in this instance?
El stovey said:
Is the cause not known yet then? Genuinely I thought it was thought to be the height at the top of the loop.
I don't think the root cause is known yet. As you suggested, there are many potentials further down the "why" chain, but insufficient evidence to come to a conclusion more detailed than "loop started too slow with insufficient thrust" and "failed to abort manoeuvre at top of loop"El stovey said:
wobert said:
They’re not “my” 5 whys, somebody else posted it....
Ok sorry, so what’s the conclusion as to the root cause(s) based on whoever’ it is 5 whys? What industry does this root cause identifying method come from?NDA said:
I made the point a long while ago that pulling high G manoeuvres over busy roads is introducing an unacceptable risk.
Which is probably why in this case the manoeuvres were over open countrysideThe return path back to base was over the trees next to the road
The plan should have been agreed before hand - did that come out in the AAIB recommendations?
NDA said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Totally agree.The pilot was reckless - an avoidable crash that killed 11 people. I hope he goes to jail.
I made the point a long while ago that pulling high G manoeuvres over busy roads is introducing an unacceptable risk.
There isn't a professional pilot, commercial or military, who hasn't been humbled at some point in their career. The 'master race' misnomer exists only from an outsider perspective.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
There's no meat on the bare bones of your post. Nothing I can respond to. I've posted findings from the AAIB. It shows their thoughts on the accident and the thought processes prevalent throughout the industry. It shows AH's understanding of his DA height and the understanding of the some parts of the wider industry since 1996 which didn't result in a change or clarification from the CAA until after the AAIB's report.
Funnily enough, there are segments within the report which would help you to flesh out your viewpoint and so provide some meat for those bones. It'd attach some figures to your bluster: that's how I know you haven't read it.
saaby93 said:
Which is probably why in this case the manoeuvres were over open countryside
The return path back to base was over the trees next to the road
When he killed 11 people, he was still exiting the loop, at the bottom of it - at least in every single graphic I've seen.The return path back to base was over the trees next to the road
Whatever. He was irresponsible and should go to jail. The deaths were his fault.
NDA said:
saaby93 said:
Which is probably why in this case the manoeuvres were over open countryside
The return path back to base was over the trees next to the road
When he killed 11 people, he was still exiting the loop, at the bottom of it - at least in every single graphic I've seen.The return path back to base was over the trees next to the road
The manoeuvre should have been finished and in level flight back to base
The level flight part turned into how do I try and get the nose up without pancaking into the..... too late
anonymous said:
[redacted]
However, there isn't lots in the report that backs your position up as I've shown. I've no intention of holding your hand and walking you through it. That's where you're going to have to suck it up and do it yourself. There are, however, a few pieces of information that would aid your comprehension and enable you to attach some figures to your position: a position you've arrived at by neither reading the AAIB report nor waiting for the court's verdict.I clocked your personality type fairly early on in this thread. I'm more than aware that you're unable to move on from your position, even in the face of contrary findings from persons far more educated (AAIB) on this subject - and many others I suspect - than you. I do often wonder if you apply the same thought processes to other areas of your life where you develop inexorable stances on issues you are neither prepared to research nor equipped to understand.
Much love.
pushthebutton said:
There isn't a professional pilot, commercial or military, who hasn't been humbled at some point in their career. The 'master race' misnomer exists only from an outsider perspective.
It would appear Andy Hill had a humbling moment in Southport but he missed the memo.Dr Jekyll said:
Nobody is saying he was blacked out a that point, the argument is that he blacked out briefly a few seconds earlier causing the top of the manoeuvre to be too low.
If you black out before a manoeuvre with chest pains it’s probably better to not do the loop I would have thought.Gassing Station | Boats, Planes & Trains | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff