PH Box Office Wager 2019

[Halb]

I have Frozen 2, which I consider a lock for 1 billion.
So I reckon I will deffo have 6 in the top ten.
Now I need It 2 to at least equal It, and for Jumanji 3 to be only OK, and Star Wars 9 not to rack up to 1 bill too quickly.

[ukaskew]

Halb said:

I have Frozen 2, which I consider a lock for 1 billion.
So I reckon I will deffo have 6 in the top ten.
Now I need It 2 to at least equal It, and for Jumanji 3 to be only OK, and Star Wars 9 not to rack up to 1 bill too quickly.

Jumanji is out a week earlier than last time so has nearly 3 weeks in 2019, I'm sure it'll do really well but I think Star Wars taking a huge % of screens a week later and aiming broadly at a similar family audience is going to hurt it more than Last Jedi did.

[Halb]

Box Office - Hobbs & Shaw Opening Weekend, Quentin Tarantino vs Shannon Lee
Beyond The Trailer Published on 4 Aug 2019
https://youtu.be/cHZSgbyqLBI

I reckon Hobbs & Shaw will end up at 800, which might be good enough. Depends how the starwars/jumanji scrap goes. Frozen2 is a billion film.

[Halb]

A most excellent mid-year report on the state of play, ranking companies and the streaming effect.

Beyond The Trailer Published on 30 Aug 2019
Box Office 2019 So Far - Fall & Holiday Movie Preview
https://youtu.be/cBbUcth8ofQ
17mins

[Halb]

A fairly mesmerising graphic of DC and Marvel films, I think all but as the BO gets up to 600 odd million one can't see the new ones that don't make the grade.

Marvel vs. DC: Most Money Grossing Movies 1978 - 2019
https://youtu.be/oAGdedgvWKI

edit to add this equally mesmerising graphic
(UPDATED!) All-Time Top Movie Franchises 1979 - 2019
https://youtu.be/b5G8S8-Ts6c

Edited by Halb on Thursday 24th October 06:43

[ukaskew]

ukaskew said:

Looking at five $1b dollar movies next year and Disney are surely odds-on for the biggest single year in any studios history, $10b doesn't seem to be out of the question.

Disney passed $10b this week and we're about to reach 8 movies passing the $1b mark.

We will see if Star Wars has time to make an impact then I'll total up the scores a couple days after the New Year.

[Halb]

Yeah, I saw, a boomer year for Disney and that's not including Spider-Man, which is really a disney film in everything but the stamp.
Next year should be smaller. Joker though, got to 1 billion and without China. IMpressive. I never saw it being that big when I first mooted it.
Box Office - Frozen 2 nears Billion, Disney $10 Billion 2019
Beyond The Trailer
https://youtu.be/_t2csRrxJX8
The only question left now is who will win, star wars or jumnaji? As Grace points out, other companies aren't afraid of Star Wars now. I never watched (and haven't yet seen) the jumanji remake, but this trailer for the sequel...I actually want to watch it, it loooks like dozy fun.
The old one took close to 1 billion, I see this new one maybe getting 1 billion...but before 2019 closes? I think it'll rob SW of some lucre too over the xmas period. I reckon SW will get to 1 billion, but not much over.

edit.
update, seems the new star wars film got to 175 US domestic, which is ten mill above the lowest lowball of 165 that Disney ultimately changed their prediction to. Some are even saying it won't make 1 billion. Well it deffo won't make it before the year is up, so it's not top ten, neither will JUmanji be.
Box Office - Star Wars The Rise of Skywalker Opening Weekend
https://youtu.be/MTbqut7iyPQ

Edited by Halb on Monday 23 December 20:15

[Halb]

Halb said:

update, seems the new star wars film got to 175 US domestic, which is ten mill above the lowest lowball of 165 that Disney ultimately changed their prediction to. Some are even saying it won't make 1 billion. Well it deffo won't make it before the year is up, so it's not top ten, neither will JUmanji be.
Box Office - Star Wars The Rise of Skywalker Opening Weekend
https://youtu.be/MTbqut7iyPQ

Well it had a bonza xmas week and squeaked into the top ten! Buggrit! Jumanji2/4 just fell off.

[irocfan]

well I had three total clunkers the worst of which was my 3rd wildcard, Midway - which struggled to reach the heady heights of 58th! Has anyone got a worse performing film?

[Halb]

Lookin at mine, no.
15: It Chapter Two - $472,093,228
19: The Secret Life of Pets 2 - $429,434,163
24: Shazam! - $364,571,656
25 : Dumbo - $353,284,621 (swapped out for; 8: Aladdin - $1,050,693,953)

[Mafffew]

Mafffew said:

I think the only guarantee is Avengers 4 being number one...I think the next four places will be quite close.

1. Avengers 4
2. The Lion King
3. Frozen 2
4. Star Wars Episode IX
5. Toy Story 4
6. Aladdin
7. Spider-Man: Far From Home
8. Captain Marvel
9. Wonder Woman 1984
10. Dumbo

At least I got the top 3! What was I thinking with Dumbo...Wonder Woman 1984 was delayed, couldn't have seen that coming. Star Wars, not even close to number 4!

[Halb]

Mafffew said:

At least I got the top 3! What was I thinking with Dumbo...Wonder Woman 1984 was delayed, couldn't have seen that coming. Star Wars, not even close to number 4!

YOu got 8!
Disney live actions remakes are a real mixed bunch, a real powerslam or a bomb.
I guessed this year would have more billion dollar club than previously and I guess the SW film would get less than Jedi so that's why I didn't go for SW, plus it was released a week later than Jedi. We knew WW84 wouldn't be tillnext year, I had it myself till someone pointed it out.
SW9 will be a lot less than Jedi but will probably make the billion club now

[ukaskew]

9 out of 10 for me (went with Dumbo instead of Joker) by the looks of things so pretty solid, not in the right order though!

Will do the scores one evening in the next couple of days.

[ukaskew]

So, here is the final result...

1. Avengers: Endgame ($2.79b)
2. The Lion King ($1.65b)
3. Frozen II ($1.23b)
4. Spider-Man: Far From Home ($1.13b)
5. Captain Marvel ($1.12b)
6. Toy Story 4 ($1.07b)
7. Joker ($1.06b)
8. Aladdin ($1.05b)
9. Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker ($815m)
10 Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw ($758m)

And the scores...


ukaskew: 69 points

mafffew: 54 points

wjb: 51 points

halb: 43 points

irocfan: 40 points

[Halb]

Dillon you sonnovabh! I saw Hobbs was at 10 and knew you'd get a good bump but it wasn't even close!

[irocfan]

Halb said:

Dillon you sonnovabh! I saw Hobbs was at 10 and knew you'd get a good bump but it wasn't even close!

well I got 1st and 10th positions right - shame everything else was wrong!! Feels like being at school again - 'must try harder'

[ukaskew]

All bets are off for 2020, I have absolutely no confidence in even predicting which films will be in the top 10.

[Mafffew]

Yeah I am really struggling, I've chopped and changed a couple already. But honestly, I've got no bloody clue!