PH Box Office Wager 2019

[ukaskew]

A box office prediction game was suggested in a thread a while back, and as it happens a pretty good scoring system already exists via the folks at SlashFilm, who run a ‘Summer Movie Wager’ each year for US box office takings between April and September (as an aside I highly recommend the podcast). For PH I figured Worldwide takings for the whole year would be the best option as it’s data that’s easy to get at and monitor.

Rules

It’s pretty simple if you want to take part, just list your top 10 prediction for worldwide box office takings for 2019 in this thread by midnight on December 31st 2018 and I’ll do the rest. To avoid any confusion I’ll be solely using the Box Office Mojo worldwide data for the entire calendar year of 2019 to score.

To make life easier for me please clearly list and number your choices, preferably with the full film title i.e. 1. The Lion King, 2. Aladdin 3. Shazam!

Scoring System

Getting number 1 or number 10 dead-on gets you 13 points (each).

The rest of the scoring goes like this:

• 10 points for numbers 2-9 dead-on
• 7 points if your pick was only one spot away from where it ended up
• 5 points if it was two spots away
• 3 points if your pick is anywhere in the Top 10

The scoring is tabulated so that you get the SINGLE HIGHEST point value for each pick- that is, if you get number ten right, you don’t get 13+3, you only get 13.


Useful Stuff

Here is an approximate schedule of 2019 releases: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_in_film

Here is the worldwide 2018 chart: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?view2=...

Inevitably most of the obvious heavy hitters are sequel/franchise films, so I’ve listed some key ones below and included the worldwide box office of their predecessor or nearest relation…

• Avengers 4 ($2046, Infinity War, 2018)
• Star Wars Episode IX ($1332, The Last Jedi, 2017)
• The Lion King ($966, Jungle Book, 2016)
• Toy Story 4 ($1066, Toy Story 3, 2010)
• Wonder Woman 1984 ($821, Wonder Woman, 2017)
• Captain Marvel ($622, Ant-Man and the Wasp, 2018)
• Aladdin ($966, Jungle Book, 2016)
• The Secret Life of Pets 2 ($875, Secret Life of Pets, 2016)
• Frozen 2 ($1276, Frozen, 2013)
• Spider-Man: Far From Home ($880, Homecoming, 2017)
• It: Chapter 2 ($700m, It, 2017)
• Shazam! ($746, Suicide Squad, 2016)
• Joker ($746, Suicide Squad, 2016)
• Lego Movie 2: The Second Part ($469, Lego Movie, 2014)
• Dumbo ($966, Jungle Book, 2016)
• MIB ($589, Men in Black, 1997)

I’ll bump this thread towards the end of December and if we have enough interest (i.e. more than a couple of entries) it’s game on!

[ukaskew]

Late December bump if anyone is interested.

I'll go with:

1. Avengers: End Game
2. Lion King
3. Toy Story 4
4. Frozen 2
5. Star Wars Ep 9
6. Captain Marvel
7. Spider-Man: Far From Home
8. Aladdin
9. Dumbo
10. Hobbs and Shaw

Looking at five $1b dollar movies next year and Disney are surely odds-on for the biggest single year in any studios history, $10b doesn't seem to be out of the question.

Edited by ukaskew on Monday 31st December 23:11

[ukaskew]

Halb said:

A question, once we make our picks, are they 'locked in?'

Edits are fine up till January 1st, I guess.

[ukaskew]

Halb said:

I would never have thought Venom would end up where it was this year.

That's a good point, I don't think Venom or Bohemian Rhapsody would have been in my list, more than likely replaced by Ready Player One and Solo.

I can't call Star Wars Ep 9 at all, plus it only has 11 days on release in 2019.

Edited by ukaskew on Friday 21st December 22:29

[ukaskew]

Halb said:

I was gonna throw in Avatar2 as my secret pick, but after a quick check, it's also got 11 days, it won't crack top ten in 11 days.

Also, it's out in 2020

[ukaskew]

Lion King will be absolutely huge, I'm sure of that, I did consider putting it at #1 just to throw the dice a bit. I think it'll be much closer to End Game than some might expect.

[ukaskew]

Halb said:

GRace has her blockbuster picks out...this actually reminded me that WOnder WOmen2 is out in 2020

Shoot, I'm sure it was listed for 2019 originally!

[ukaskew]

Yeah go for it, I myself only scraped in with a change minutes before midnight!

[ukaskew]

A while till anything comes out that may trouble the top 10, I'm guessing Lego Movie 2 will sit comfortably at the top until Captain Marvel arrives as it should have pretty long legs with half term coming up as well.

[ukaskew]

Wildcard alert!

The Wandering Earth just took $298m in its first 6 days of release. Particularly crazy when you consider the #2 at the Chinese box office took $230m in the same period.

The massive shift in global box office is well underway.

[ukaskew]

Yep, Hobbs and Shaw (the only film I had below Dumbo) is going to obliterate it!

[ukaskew]

Halb said:

I've chosen three turkeys, that is the uppermost limit of what I'd be happy with on my prognostication skills
Annoyed I flipped Dumbo for Aladdin

I was thinking about this today as the box office this year has been pretty poor, Captain Marvel, Endgame and Aladdin aside. Secret Life of Pets 2 is massively down on the original, Lego Movie 2 didn't perform, MIB International is having a shocker etc etc. Dumbo aside I reckon my top 10 is still looking pretty solid.

I'm thinking Hobbs & Shaw, Toy Story 4 and Lion King are the only guaranteed hits for quite a few months now.

Edited by ukaskew on Monday 17th June 20:10

[ukaskew]

Spider-Man is having an impressive opening (likely to be $400m before the weekend is out) so will be flying up the list shortly. With that sort of opening it could be heading for $1b globally.

[ukaskew]

2019 has even the experts confused with what's happening with the box office, so I don't mind being way off come years end!

Dumbo aside I'm feeling pretty good about getting 7 or 8 (at least) of the correct films, if not in the right order!

[ukaskew]

Halb said:

I have Frozen 2, which I consider a lock for 1 billion.
So I reckon I will deffo have 6 in the top ten.
Now I need It 2 to at least equal It, and for Jumanji 3 to be only OK, and Star Wars 9 not to rack up to 1 bill too quickly.

Jumanji is out a week earlier than last time so has nearly 3 weeks in 2019, I'm sure it'll do really well but I think Star Wars taking a huge % of screens a week later and aiming broadly at a similar family audience is going to hurt it more than Last Jedi did.

[ukaskew]

ukaskew said:

Looking at five $1b dollar movies next year and Disney are surely odds-on for the biggest single year in any studios history, $10b doesn't seem to be out of the question.

Disney passed $10b this week and we're about to reach 8 movies passing the $1b mark.

We will see if Star Wars has time to make an impact then I'll total up the scores a couple days after the New Year.

[ukaskew]

9 out of 10 for me (went with Dumbo instead of Joker) by the looks of things so pretty solid, not in the right order though!

Will do the scores one evening in the next couple of days.

[ukaskew]

So, here is the final result...

1. Avengers: Endgame ($2.79b)
2. The Lion King ($1.65b)
3. Frozen II ($1.23b)
4. Spider-Man: Far From Home ($1.13b)
5. Captain Marvel ($1.12b)
6. Toy Story 4 ($1.07b)
7. Joker ($1.06b)
8. Aladdin ($1.05b)
9. Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker ($815m)
10 Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw ($758m)

And the scores...


ukaskew: 69 points

mafffew: 54 points

wjb: 51 points

halb: 43 points

irocfan: 40 points

[ukaskew]

All bets are off for 2020, I have absolutely no confidence in even predicting which films will be in the top 10.