Oldham West and Royton by-election
Discussion
The Oldham West and Royton by-election is on the 3rd of December.
2015 GE result:
Labour - Michael Meacher - 23,630/54.8% (+9.3%)
UKIP - Francis Arbour - 8,892/20.6% (+17.4%)
Conservative - Kamran Ghafoor - 8,187/19.0% (-4.7%)
Liberal Democrat - Garth Harkness - 1,589/3.7% (-15.4%)
Green - Simeon Hart - 839/1.9% (+1.9%)
So it's a pretty massive Labour majority, but there's an outside chance of some upset. The postal vote deadline is 5pm today.
Anyone in this constituency?
2015 GE result:
Labour - Michael Meacher - 23,630/54.8% (+9.3%)
UKIP - Francis Arbour - 8,892/20.6% (+17.4%)
Conservative - Kamran Ghafoor - 8,187/19.0% (-4.7%)
Liberal Democrat - Garth Harkness - 1,589/3.7% (-15.4%)
Green - Simeon Hart - 839/1.9% (+1.9%)
So it's a pretty massive Labour majority, but there's an outside chance of some upset. The postal vote deadline is 5pm today.
Anyone in this constituency?
Labour Candidate is current leader of Oldham Council, but the rest of the candidate list completely changed from G. Election, inc the Tory and UKIP candidates.
One addition is Sir Oink A-Lot - no guessing which party. He might upset some of Oldham's residents.
Surprised they didn't have a candidate in the GE, but then they only do prominent elections.
One addition is Sir Oink A-Lot - no guessing which party. He might upset some of Oldham's residents.
Surprised they didn't have a candidate in the GE, but then they only do prominent elections.
Before I checked the wiki page I thought that was a reference to Pickle or someone of that ilk.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldham_West_and_Royt...
The most interesting thing for me will be how well the UKiPs vote has survived.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldham_West_and_Royt...
The most interesting thing for me will be how well the UKiPs vote has survived.
There are (OK, fewer now ) loads of 'safe seats', at one time they were in the vast majority. Recent changes in the environment has eroded the number somewhat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safe_seat#United_Kin...
2010
Conservatives 172 45.03%
Labour 165 43.19%
http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/safe-seats
Safe seats in 2015
Four weeks away from the election we could predict the results for over half of the total constituencies. 364 seats have been called based on how ‘safe’ they were in 2010, in line with current national and local opinion polls. Find out whether you're in a safe seat here. If you'd like to have a look at all the information you can download it as a spreadsheet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safe_seat#United_Kin...
2010
Conservatives 172 45.03%
Labour 165 43.19%
http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/safe-seats
Safe seats in 2015
Four weeks away from the election we could predict the results for over half of the total constituencies. 364 seats have been called based on how ‘safe’ they were in 2010, in line with current national and local opinion polls. Find out whether you're in a safe seat here. If you'd like to have a look at all the information you can download it as a spreadsheet.
Interesting reading on the Labour candidate and his nice little allowance(s), even if it is via a Tory mouthpiece.
http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/20...
http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/20...
Latest nationwide polling shows Labour could be holding on to Oldham by a fingernail:
Cons 42%
Lab 27%
UKIP 11%
LibDem 7%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Cons 42%
Lab 27%
UKIP 11%
LibDem 7%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Halb said:
indeed. As ever with these kinds of stories, comments disallowed.Halb said:
No mention where the disaffected are likely to place their allegiance at this up coming election through.UKIP could get their second seat here especially with Paris still in the memory.
An interesting post from an Oldham Labour campaigner
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/3tq9f...
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/3tq9f...
Campaigner said:
...Conclusion labour have huge problems with their working class vote from what I have seen. These results were essentially reflected across the board by the 100 other campaigners over the last 2 weeks. Ukip is more popular than Farage though very few actively dislike him. But Corbyn has completely turned off his vote.
Edit: Also I read in another post in a more general thread on Reddit that Labour are bussing in canvassers which is apparently a bad sign.Edited by Esseesse on Monday 23 November 16:09
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