Deutsche Bank - They think its all over.....
Discussion
Chairman comes out saying "we are rock solid"," nothing to see here!"
Looking at the charts this is tracking the same way Lehman went. Are we in for 2008 Mk2 with bells on....
http://www.wsj.com/articles/deutsche-bank-shares-d...
When a chairman comes out saying "Its all good" it seems that means its all over and we are in the final stages of stuffing our lifeboats full of £££.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/15/deutsche-bank-a-tic...
75 trillion in derivatives, what could possibly go wrong!
Looking at the charts this is tracking the same way Lehman went. Are we in for 2008 Mk2 with bells on....
http://www.wsj.com/articles/deutsche-bank-shares-d...
When a chairman comes out saying "Its all good" it seems that means its all over and we are in the final stages of stuffing our lifeboats full of £££.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/15/deutsche-bank-a-tic...
75 trillion in derivatives, what could possibly go wrong!
WSJ is behind a paywall so can't read it.
I can guess the gist however.
DB is too big to fail. I know it's zerohedge which are sensationalist doom mongers but this is an interesting view on it http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-20/could-ger...
I can guess the gist however.
DB is too big to fail. I know it's zerohedge which are sensationalist doom mongers but this is an interesting view on it http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-20/could-ger...
I'd always assumed Deutsche would be bailed out in the end and that belief still holds, though more shakily than it did after Merkel's announcement the other day.
However, she's between a rock and a hard place: DB go to the wall and damage the German and European economies, Italian and French banks suffer serious knock on effects. Or they're bailed and German calls for a hard line on enforcing EZ rules in Italy and Greece look at best inconsistent.
So I do wonder if behind the scenes, there are talks to find ways of bailing out which don't look like a bailout (ie. nationalisation or similar) as the alternative could well be catastrophic for the EZ and the wider European economy as well.
However, she's between a rock and a hard place: DB go to the wall and damage the German and European economies, Italian and French banks suffer serious knock on effects. Or they're bailed and German calls for a hard line on enforcing EZ rules in Italy and Greece look at best inconsistent.
So I do wonder if behind the scenes, there are talks to find ways of bailing out which don't look like a bailout (ie. nationalisation or similar) as the alternative could well be catastrophic for the EZ and the wider European economy as well.
Four Litre said:
75 trillion in derivatives, what could possibly go wrong!
That would be the notional volume of underlying securities that the derivatives "track", it is not the actual exposure of the bank to derivative positions.Most derivatives are collateralised and the bank keeps that collateral as "buffer" to protect itself (to some extent) against large market moves.
Then there are obviously liquidity, counterparty and ops risks that can further increase potential losses.
But overall a bank like DB might be exposed to say max 1% of those 75 trillion, which at 750bn is still a massive number, but very very unlikely to happen - would require lots of other banks/financial counterparties to go bust, very significant market moves and a liquidity crisis to occur all at once.
Zod said:
Four Litre said:
Zod said:
Your profile says you are an analyst. An equity or credit research analyst? If not, how much do you understand of what you posted?
A question with a question - interesting! Unless your the chairman of DB, why the need to behave like an utter bell-end? Im guessing small guy with a keyboard syndrome?
boxxob said:
Zod said:
Four Litre said:
Zod said:
Your profile says you are an analyst. An equity or credit research analyst? If not, how much do you understand of what you posted?
A question with a question - interesting! What's the word on the street for the shoeshine boy on his knees before the great Zod?
Four Litre said:
Pleased to meet to too Zod. You appear to either got out of bed the wrong side today or are a complete and utter cock. Judging by your posting, I can only assume the latter.
Unless your the chairman of DB, why the need to behave like an utter bell-end? Im guessing small guy with a keyboard syndrome?
So do you understand the $75 trillion number is meaningless nonsense or not?Unless your the chairman of DB, why the need to behave like an utter bell-end? Im guessing small guy with a keyboard syndrome?
boxxob said:
Zod said:
I polish my own shoes actually.
and do you kneel in front of the mirror to do it? ahem, seriously now, what's the Zod-take on the stories posted? Your answers so far (and previous DB comments) allude to that fact you think they are balderdash.
Four Litre said:
Zod said:
Four Litre said:
Zod said:
Your profile says you are an analyst. An equity or credit research analyst? If not, how much do you understand of what you posted?
A question with a question - interesting! Unless your the chairman of DB, why the need to behave like an utter bell-end? Im guessing small guy with a keyboard syndrome?
What motivated your original post? Not knowledge, so fear of the unknown or just bank bashing?
I do have a keyboard (don't we all - in fact, I have several), but I'm quite big (this is PH, after all).
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