bloody weather!
Discussion
Apache said:
How comes it is fair through the week yet, without fail, clouds over nicely on friday for the weekend?
Not having a go at you personally, but your comment highlights something I've noticed since I started keeping my local weather records in 1990.The British public are renowned for having remarkably short memories (eg. they keep electing political parties to government despite the absolute balls-ups those same parties have made of doing the job on previous attempts
), but nowhere is this more apparent than in the matter of weather.It rains for 4 or 5 days in a row - "this whole summer is a washout."
It's 25 degrees plus for a few days in a row - "this whole summer is too hot"
Its been cloudy and overcast for a week - "We didn't get a summer this year" - perhaps you've forgotten about the heatwave we had at the end of May?
And so on.
Let's be clear about this - if you expect the three months of summer to be seamless blue sky and 30 degrees plus then you'd better move out of the UK, because this sort of thing doesn't happen here. Our summers, each and every one of them, involve some sunny days, some wet days, some overcast days. All that ever changes is the proportion of each in each year.
Summer is not only manifested by being able to see the sun, it also shows itself in overall average temperatures. We are not doing as well this year as we have in some years but here are some average temperature figures for the last couple of years from my records:
Month--2011 -- 2012
Jan --- 6.06 --- 8.06
Feb --- 9.11 --- 7.03
Mar -- 14.00 -- 13.32
Apr -- 17.30 -- 11.37 (April was unusually warm in 2011 and unusually cold in 2012 - see below)
May - 17.10 -- 17.29
Jun -- 17.13 -- 17.53
Jul --- 19.58 -- 17.75 (to yesterday so only 8 days data so far)
Aug -- 19.13
Sep -- 18.87
Oct -- 15.58
Nov -- 11.97
Dec --- 8.40
A special note about the April figures - in 2011 we had 5 days between the 19th and 23rd where the temperature got into the mid-20s, and 5 other days in the month when it got above 20, whilst in April 2012 we had an unusually cold snap with 10 days at 10 degrees C or below
Caveat as in my last "sad case" post - this data comes from my spreadsheet, but the Met Office website will probably give similar figures
Last year was poor too though. In my short memory, the last good summer we had was 2006. We've had the occasional week (2 of them) this year where temps and weather have been very good. Other than that its been too grey to call summer. I havent seen blue skies for about 20 days here in the N East.
Catweazle said:
Pity the study ends in 1968 and so doesn't answer the question it starts with... "The 2007 UK summer floods have once again prompted
the question whether extreme events are becoming more
frequent as a feature of climate change."
kerplunk said:
Catweazle said:
Pity the study ends in 1968 and so doesn't answer the question it starts with... "The 2007 UK summer floods have once again prompted
the question whether extreme events are becoming more
frequent as a feature of climate change."
1968-2012 is a very short period to address frequency issues.
In general the frequency, extent and duration of any weather event in 2007 or 2012 can be compared with events in other decades as long as the data hasn't been massaged or tortured, as happened to near-surface temperature.
Anybody taking time to look through publications, including those peer reviewed types (but probably not reviewed by Jones et al) can do this.
There is nothing unprecedented about the weather unless a specific timescale is chosen to make it so, and even then it still isn't. Everything happening today and more besides has happened before the tax gas era.
rs1952 said:
Mar -- 14.00 -- 13.32
We had a mini heatwave in March so surprised at that...Nevertheless, I don't know why people in this country are so obsessed with the weather, some people get genuinely upset about it. Sad gits
As others have said, its NORMAL!
Have to laugh at the news panicking about droughts not so long back too! Nature always has a way of balancing itself out.
Puggit said:
Netweather are indicating the South will have a couple of nice days next week, and that might lead to a better outlook overall.
Certainly not a certainty though!
Oh no! Surely not!! Does that mean the doomsayers may be doomed for an insignificant period of time even shorter than the one they think is significant?Certainly not a certainty though!
Still, a couple of days' respite will be good, arriving as it would with the need for sunscreen
turbobloke said:
What question? Why not?
What - are extreme rainfall events becoming more frequent.Why - because the study ends in 1968.
turbobloke said:
In general the frequency, extent and duration of any weather event in 2007 or 2012 can be compared with events in other decades.
Anybody taking time to look through publications, including those peer reviewed types (but probably not reviewed by Jones et al) can do this.
There is nothing unprecedented about the weather unless a specific timescale is chosen to make it so. Everything happening today and more besides has happened before the tax gas era.
What is it about 'wettest [month] on record' you don't understand? Anybody taking time to look through publications, including those peer reviewed types (but probably not reviewed by Jones et al) can do this.
There is nothing unprecedented about the weather unless a specific timescale is chosen to make it so. Everything happening today and more besides has happened before the tax gas era.
turbobloke said:
1968-2012 is a very short period to address frequency issues.
So, not a pity.The peeps who wrote the study agree with me:
The study would also greatly benefit from
having data from 1969 onwards included in
the archive and it is a pity that the ‘Heavy
Rainfall on Rainfall Days’ chapter was discontinued.
With such information it would be
possible to consider trends in UK extreme
rainfall up to the present day, a feature
that is particularly relevant in relation to
climate change projections which state the
frequency of extreme rainfall will increase in
a warmer climate (Semenov and Bengtsson,
2002). Extending the archive to the present
day would, however, require considerable
effort. Although the Met Office holds digital
rainfall records over this period, the other
information, namely the written descriptions
from observers and isohyetal maps,
would have to be obtained from a number
of sources (e.g., the Environment Agency,
Scottish Environmental Protection Agency,
CEH Wallingford). It is hoped that such work
will be undertaken in the future.
Just prior to this damp period, we apparently had the lowest rainfall for years, it was also forecast that the groundwater couldn't recover even if it rained until next year.
It all depends where you draw the line for average and that depends on the scope of data...
Rather than crying about averages, we need to start looking at 'required minimum'... so what does each county need to fulfil needs.
This would be the path away from the idiot doomsayers and into a proper discussion about conservation and use.
Averages and extremes are recourse for the mathematical pygmy and the easily led.
It all depends where you draw the line for average and that depends on the scope of data...
Rather than crying about averages, we need to start looking at 'required minimum'... so what does each county need to fulfil needs.
This would be the path away from the idiot doomsayers and into a proper discussion about conservation and use.
Averages and extremes are recourse for the mathematical pygmy and the easily led.
Mr GrimNasty said:
Olympics 1948 - June/July predominately cool/dull then 5 day (or whatever) heatwave arrived.
Erratic weather is entirely NORMAL.
It was like that when we got married (1990 I think).Erratic weather is entirely NORMAL.
It was s
t for weeks before and then the day before (mid July) it suddenly got hot and was sweltering on the day of our wedding (clearly the sun DOES shine on the righteous 
) and for a while after (although we jetted off to Kenya the next day, so missed most of it).It'll pick up on the 23rd, as we're off to Caribbean for 10 days! Expect it to start raining again in early August!
M.
TameRacingDriver said:
rs1952 said:
Mar -- 14.00 -- 13.32
We had a mini heatwave in March so surprised at that... The nearest we got to a heatwave down here in March was between the 23rd and the 29th, with temperatures recorded of 18,21,19,18,19,21 and 20 respectively. I suppose it depends on what you define as a heatwave
I also recorded temperatures of 7 on March 4, 8 on the 13th and 9 on the 15th, and the average for the first half of the month was 10.73, which explains why the overall average was depressed.
TameRacingDriver said:
Nevertheless, I don't know why people in this country are so obsessed with the weather, some people get genuinely upset about it. Sad gits
Yes I am/ we are, aren't we I put it down to the extremely variable nature of our weather. You don't like our weather? Hang on 10 minutes ...TameRacingDriver said:
As others have said, its NORMAL!
Have to laugh at the news panicking about droughts not so long back too! Nature always has a way of balancing itself out.
Apparently yet another "report by experts" out today (heard it on the news and didn't listen hard enough to find the source) saying that we'll be having more rain and more droughts because of global warming, and this is only the start Have to laugh at the news panicking about droughts not so long back too! Nature always has a way of balancing itself out.
rs1952 said:
(telling of a report saying) we'll be having more rain and more droughts because of global warming, and this is only the start
Presumably they mean the start of manmadeup warming as it hasn't started yet.IPCC said:
Finally we come to the most difficult question of all: 'when will the detection and unambiguous attribution of human-induced climate change occur?' In the light of the very large signal and noise uncertainties discussed in this Chapter it is not surprising that the best answer to this question is 'We do not know'.
IPCC SAR 1995 WG1 draft Ch 8 Section 8.6Alarmists try to argue that a lot has happened since 1995 but that's a bland and feeble soundbite...one thing that hasn't happened is the identification of any atmospheric warming caused by mankind.
So they still don't know, but who would guess from all the ecohype.
Puggit said:
Bbc weather just said it was warmer in Scotland at Christmas 
The BBC can come out with as much bullshyte as the global warmists when it suits them. I mean, what does that statement actually say? To paraphrase:"A warmer than usual day in Scotland around Christmas was hotter than a cooler than usual day in the summer" That'll make all the difference then
I've heard the BBC's idiots in the past say things like: "It was warmer in London today than it was in Athens"
Oh really? So are you going to give us the same comparison for the other 364 days of the year, or are you just coming out with this non-story to make us feel good today, or to try to f
k the Greek economy up even more by suggesting a week in sunny Dagenham will give you a better suntan than one in "cool" Greece?As I said earlier, most of the UK population have no memory at all when it comes to the weather.
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