AirAsia QZ8501 Missing

Author
Discussion

telecat

8,528 posts

243 months

Monday 29th December 2014
quotequote all
Le TVR said:
humpbackmaniac said:
A poor Ryan Air Pilot sat next to a very inquisitive me on a bumpy flight from Glasgow to London last year, and took pride in explaining to me "No plane has ever broken up due to turbulence" is that no longer the case?


What is left of G-APFE falling from the sky after being subject to extreme turbulence cause by a 'mountain wave' effect over Mount Fuji.

It was a Boeing 707.
Seen who cancelled their tickets on the BOAC 707? Anyway it looks like FOX news appear to employ the most igmorant set of airheads ever to front the News. Essentially Anna Kooiman was blaming the Metric system for the crash!!

Beyond Rational

3,527 posts

217 months

Monday 29th December 2014
quotequote all
Naive question: Is it a certainty that the pilot climbed, or could the weather have pushed it up there?

Jimbeaux

33,791 posts

233 months

Monday 29th December 2014
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kapiteinlangzaam said:
Jimbeaux said:
kapiteinlangzaam said:
Pesty said:
This titbit was found on another forum. No link. Though.

"Air traffic control approved the pilot's request to turn left but denied permission for the plane to climb to 38,000 feet from 32,000 feet, Djoko Murjatmodjo, an aviation official at the Indonesian Transport Ministry, told the national newspaper Kompas.

The increased altitude request was denied because there was another plane flying at that height, he said."
Complete non-story.

I deny requests for climb (or descent) every day at work due to other aircraft being in the way.

IF the pilot thinks that the safety of the aircraft is in question, they can also ignore the ATC clearance and climb anyway....
I see pilots on the news speaking of computer-imposed limits on climb and descent to avoid accidental encroachment into other flight paths, not able to be overridden by the pilot. If this is so, might it have inhibited the pilot from climbing out of the weather?
Either a misunderstanding of the journalist, or from yourself....

Probably relating to TCAS, but that in no way can override a direct pilot input.
Probably right on both counts, more on me. smile

Hooli

32,278 posts

202 months

Monday 29th December 2014
quotequote all
Ginetta G15 Girl said:
The next problem is that, not knowing the temperature structure of the atmosphere, we have no accurate idea of just how high FL380 actually is. Flight levels are based upon a std altimeter setting of 1013.25mb so their actual altitudes above sea level vary dependent upon atmospheric conditions. All we can do here is assume that the conditions are ISA (International Standard Atmosphere) such that FL380 = 38,000ft. In reality there could be quite a large variation here.
The rest of it I'd heard of before, faintly without particularly understanding it. But this is news to me, how much variation is possible with 'average' temp variations?

ApOrbital

10,028 posts

120 months

Monday 29th December 2014
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Hope it was a quick death frown

hidetheelephants

25,521 posts

195 months

Monday 29th December 2014
quotequote all
Megaflow said:
Is it just me that's starting to think this is another MH370?

No mayday, no distress call, an area well covered by radar and and despite spending 36 hours searching a reasonably compact search, there is no sign of it.
It's not a compact search area, it's just smaller than the absurdly large area searched for the Malaysia jet; spotting small objects in seas any rougher than flat calm is a huge challenge, it took several days to find trace of AF447 and they knew as much about it as they do about this.

Ginetta G15 Girl

3,220 posts

186 months

Monday 29th December 2014
quotequote all
Hooli said:
But this is news to me, how much variation is possible with 'average' temp variations?
It's approximately 4ft per 1000ft for every degree C difference from ISA (International Standard Atmosphere) where ISA is defined as:

Sea level Air Pressure 1013.25mb
Sea Level Air Temperature +15C
Adiabatic Lapse rate -1.98C per 1000 ft


If the air is warmer than ISA then you will be higher than indicated on the altimeter, if it's colder then you will be lower.

It's normally only a player when you are operating into very cold locations (for obvious reasons). However, for the purposes of the calculations done above it would make a difference to the TAS/IAS relationship.

For example, it's not unheard of conditions being at ISA +25 in the tropics (ie a sea level temperature of =40C). While it's unlikely that the temperature structure of of the atmosphere would remain constant all the way up, this would give you an altimeter variation of 100ft per 1000ft.

Ginetta G15 Girl

3,220 posts

186 months

Monday 29th December 2014
quotequote all
humpbackmaniac said:


A poor Ryan Air Pilot sat next to a very inquisitive me on a bumpy flight from Glasgow to London last year, and took pride in explaining to me "No plane has ever broken up due to turbulence" is that no longer the case?
It's never been the case. Aside from the Boeing 707 referenced above, on 28 August 1976 a Lockheed C141A Starlifter entered an a active squall line near Peterborough whilst inbound to Mildenhall. The a/c broke up in mid air, the remains impacting the ground just outside the village of Thorney.

http://c141heaven.info/dotcom/67/pic_67_0006.php

That was in this country where thunderstorms are generally far less active than they are in the Tropics.

Others include:

April 30 1968 a C130 of the Pakistan Air Force, crashed when one wing broke off in turbulence near Chaklala, Rawalpindi, Pakistan.

September 5 1980 a C130 of the Kuwaiti came down near Montelimar in France. It was known to have taken a lightning strike and is believed to have broken up in mid air.

AreOut

3,658 posts

163 months

Monday 29th December 2014
quotequote all
hidetheelephants said:
It's not a compact search area, it's just smaller than the absurdly large area searched for the Malaysia jet; spotting small objects in seas any rougher than flat calm is a huge challenge, it took several days to find trace of AF447 and they knew as much about it as they do about this.
it's not just smaller area, it's also one hundred times more shallow (without exaggerating) and filled with fishing boats / other ships

if not for bad weather some of those would certainly notice the plane falling from the sky...

Otispunkmeyer

12,689 posts

157 months

Monday 29th December 2014
quotequote all
telecat said:
Le TVR said:
humpbackmaniac said:
A poor Ryan Air Pilot sat next to a very inquisitive me on a bumpy flight from Glasgow to London last year, and took pride in explaining to me "No plane has ever broken up due to turbulence" is that no longer the case?


What is left of G-APFE falling from the sky after being subject to extreme turbulence cause by a 'mountain wave' effect over Mount Fuji.

It was a Boeing 707.
Seen who cancelled their tickets on the BOAC 707? Anyway it looks like FOX news appear to employ the most igmorant set of airheads ever to front the News. Essentially Anna Kooiman was blaming the Metric system for the crash!!
FOX news is a comedy right?

Megaflow

9,522 posts

227 months

Monday 29th December 2014
quotequote all
hidetheelephants said:
Megaflow said:
Is it just me that's starting to think this is another MH370?

No mayday, no distress call, an area well covered by radar and and despite spending 36 hours searching a reasonably compact search, there is no sign of it.
It's not a compact search area, it's just smaller than the absurdly large area searched for the Malaysia jet; spotting small objects in seas any rougher than flat calm is a huge challenge, it took several days to find trace of AF447 and they knew as much about it as they do about this.
It took 48 hours to find AF447.

I haven't seen a definitive size of the search area, but I struggle to see how the area they are searching in the Java Sea can be as big as the area in the Indian Ocean.

Edited by Megaflow on Monday 29th December 22:20

telecat

8,528 posts

243 months

Monday 29th December 2014
quotequote all
Otispunkmeyer said:
telecat said:
Le TVR said:
humpbackmaniac said:
A poor Ryan Air Pilot sat next to a very inquisitive me on a bumpy flight from Glasgow to London last year, and took pride in explaining to me "No plane has ever broken up due to turbulence" is that no longer the case?


What is left of G-APFE falling from the sky after being subject to extreme turbulence cause by a 'mountain wave' effect over Mount Fuji.

It was a Boeing 707.
Seen who cancelled their tickets on the BOAC 707? Anyway it looks like FOX news appear to employ the most igmorant set of airheads ever to front the News. Essentially Anna Kooiman was blaming the Metric system for the crash!!
FOX news is a comedy right?
To Be honest it should be!


RYH64E

7,960 posts

246 months

Monday 29th December 2014
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I am very surprised at how easy it appears to be for planes to go missing, I'd always assumed that they were tracked every inch of the way from departure to destination.

fido

16,900 posts

257 months

Monday 29th December 2014
quotequote all
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_dependent_s... - well if it's still being rolled out to the US in 2020 I can't see it being available in the Pacific anytime soon.

AreOut

3,658 posts

163 months

motomk

2,155 posts

246 months

Tuesday 30th December 2014
quotequote all
fido said:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_dependent_s... - well if it's still being rolled out to the US in 2020 I can't see it being available in the Pacific anytime soon.
ADS-C is used in the Oceanic areas (Pacific included) as there are no ADS-B ground stations in the middle of the Ocean.
I have heard there is a plan to put satellites up so ADS-B can be used in the Ocean but it would involve a lot of satellites.


alfaman

6,416 posts

236 months

Tuesday 30th December 2014
quotequote all
Ginetta G15 Girl said:
If the air is warmer than ISA then you will be higher than indicated on the altimeter, if it's colder then you will be lower.
excuse my lack of expertise .. why would it not be higher if colder ? .. colder air is more dense than hot air (?) .. hence if colder than normal for a given altitude the pressure would be higher than normal due to denser air ? thus indicate a false lower altitude .. hence plane higher than altimeter ?

and if air hotter than norm, is less dense ? so hotter air .. it is like flying higher than the actual altitude ( hence the term 'density altitude') ... seem to recall for small planes flying off high altitude strips in very hot weather .. the air is thinner than expected .. so will be difficult to take off - and air conditions resemble higher altitude than actual altitude ?

maybe we are saying the same thing ...

Jader1973

4,099 posts

202 months

Tuesday 30th December 2014
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Seems they may have found it - ABC are reporting that search aircraft have spotted debris 10km from last known position.

King Herald

23,501 posts

218 months

Tuesday 30th December 2014
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What is this latest BBC blurb about plane wreckage found, then they have a huge main picture of a plank of wood?!?!

Is it me, or..... confused


phumy

5,680 posts

239 months

Tuesday 30th December 2014
quotequote all
News in Indonesia are reporting an exit door and a life jacket has been seen, plus one other source saying a "shadow od the fuselage can be seen below the water. I have no links to this yet.