How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

[pmanson]

p1stonhead said:

On the purely anecdotal side of things, I’m remortgaging and Nationwide just valued my place (Surrey) at £150k more than I bought it for in 2014 - a 33% increase.

Probably about right for the area considering now other sales.

However, they appear to purely base it off the below calculator though then send a surveyor round to confirm.....

https://www.nationwide.co.uk/about/house-price-ind...

Edited by p1stonhead on Wednesday 8th August 06:37

We've just remortgaged with nationwide. House value up 9% in 2 years (without them
coming out to view the house and in line with a local estate agent valuation

[anonymous-user]

Bellway is the latest of the housebuilders to issue a trading update

http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/bellway_plc/rns...

It paints a fairly upbeat picture overall, but specifically mentions that the rate of house price inflation is slowing

"The pricing environment is stable, with many sites still able to achieve low, single digit increases, predominantly for affordably priced homes, located in areas of strong demand. As the year has progressed, the rate of house price inflation has moderated. In addition, higher value homes across the country have, at times, experienced slower sales rates and occasionally required a greater use of incentives, albeit the Group has intentionally limited its exposure at this upper end of the market.

Notwithstanding the more moderate rate of house price growth, cost increases across the Group are still being offset by house price gains. Nevertheless, the net inflationary enhancement to the margin, which has augmented results over recent years, is beginning to abate."

[V6Alfisti]

pmanson said:

We've just remortgaged with nationwide. House value up 9% in 2 years (without them
coming out to view the house and in line with a local estate agent valuation

Where are you based? If south east, I think the average sale price is 5% below final asking price with many properties taking a few hair cuts from the estate agents valuation.

Obviously it doesn't affect you as you aren't looking to sell but I wouldn't take the 9% at face value.

As long as the mortgage company is covered within acceptable risk profile, such as how much you already borrowed, how much you paid of vs the potential downwards pressure/value and risk of default. Then I can't see them going to the effort of challenging any price particular, hence why they didn't even come out to scope the place.

[V6Alfisti]

https://www.rics.org/Global/7._WEB_%20July_2018_RI...

RICS Report - Again all quite general but does focus in on specific markets.

I generally read this as, they think there will be a potential upside in rent rates, London is still weak and as the same as last month and new properties to market are reducing (oddly in direct contrast to another report).

So all pretty same same from what I can see.

[matrignano]

Completely anecdotal, but I receive Rightmove notifications of price reductions almost every day, that's for 2 bed flats in the SW5/SW10 area in London.

Most of them are c.10% reductions at a time, or £100-150k chunks!

[V6Alfisti]

matrignano said:

Completely anecdotal, but I receive Rightmove notifications of price reductions almost every day, that's for 2 bed flats in the SW5/SW10 area in London.

Most of them are c.10% reductions at a time, or £100-150k chunks!

Not too surprising but glad I am not in the minority of people seeing this, any interesting examples?

[pmanson]

V6Alfisti said:

pmanson said:

We've just remortgaged with nationwide. House value up 9% in 2 years (without them
coming out to view the house and in line with a local estate agent valuation

Where are you based? If south east, I think the average sale price is 5% below final asking price with many properties taking a few hair cuts from the estate agents valuation.

Obviously it doesn't affect you as you aren't looking to sell but I wouldn't take the 9% at face value.

As long as the mortgage company is covered within acceptable risk profile, such as how much you already borrowed, how much you paid of vs the potential downwards pressure/value and risk of default. Then I can't see them going to the effort of challenging any price particular, hence why they didn't even come out to scope the place.

South East (Leighton buzzard). Interestingly the estate agent said with updated decor we could ask for about £30-40k more (and they'd expect us to achieve it too). Based on recent sales on the street I'd probably agree with them.

[FocusRS3]

pmanson said:

South East (Leighton buzzard). Interestingly the estate agent said with updated decor we could ask for about £30-40k more (and they'd expect us to achieve it too). Based on recent sales on the street I'd probably agree with them.

I think it depends on the price bracket you’re in .
Over let’s say a million there is zero chance of that . IME of course

[Jiebo]

I predict a no deal Brexit and another 20% down in the £, following a 15% fall in property prices in London and 20% in the regions. By 2022 we will be in deep recession under labour powers.

Any takers?

[anonymous-user]

Jiebo said:

I predict a no deal Brexit and another 20% down in the £, following a 15% fall in property prices in London and 20% in the regions. By 2022 we will be in deep recession under labour powers.

Any takers?

Nope.

Glad I didn’t listen to similar doom forecasts on the HPC website 10 years ago. If I had then I wouldn’t be in a lovely detached house in Hertfordshire which is fantastic for my young growing family

[ben5575]

[FocusRS3]

Jiebo said:

I predict a no deal Brexit and another 20% down in the £, following a 15% fall in property prices in London and 20% in the regions. By 2022 we will be in deep recession under labour powers.

Any takers?

I think with a labour government this is very possible although I’m about to buy another house .
Albeit I’m downsizing so at least my exposure will be less

[pmanson]

FocusRS3 said:

pmanson said:

South East (Leighton buzzard). Interestingly the estate agent said with updated decor we could ask for about £30-40k more (and they'd expect us to achieve it too). Based on recent sales on the street I'd probably agree with them.

I think it depends on the price bracket you’re in .
Over let’s say a million there is zero chance of that . IME of course

Our purchase Aug 2016 - £467k / valuation Aug 2018 - £514k
Another house the same as ours with updated decor (+ a conservatory) but worse position on the road sold May 2017 - £525k
2x slightly larger properties (an extra 20sqm from memory) sold in July 2017 for £575k/£580k respectively
Most recent sale of a similar size house on the street was £552k in October opposite to the field that is about to have 2,500 houses added to it

[Shnozz]

Jiebo said:

I predict a no deal Brexit and another 20% down in the £, following a 15% fall in property prices in London and 20% in the regions. By 2022 we will be in deep recession under labour powers.

Any takers?

My views are similar, albeit with larger falls in both sterling and property.

The interesting side theatre will be what happens with interest rates and with inflation, particularly if the printers fire back up.

[aeropilot]

Jiebo said:

I predict a no deal Brexit and another 20% down in the £, following a 15% fall in property prices in London and 20% in the regions. By 2022 we will be in deep recession under labour powers.

Any takers?

That indeed is a distinctly possible scenario........and a scary one, not so much the property price fall, as I think they need a bit of a hair cut from current levels, but the thought of a deep recession under Comrade Corbyn just as I'm within a few years of retiring sends shivers down my spine.

[matrignano]

V6Alfisti said:

Not too surprising but glad I am not in the minority of people seeing this, any interesting examples?

Not really, edging closer to £1000/sqft but that's mainly for lower ground, busy road (finborough, redcliffe) type of stuff. Still overpriced IMHO.
I'll try to dig out a place that was reduced by £300k in the space of a few months! Just to show how crazily overpriced some places are to start with

[Helicopter123]

aeropilot said:

Jiebo said:

I predict a no deal Brexit and another 20% down in the £, following a 15% fall in property prices in London and 20% in the regions. By 2022 we will be in deep recession under labour powers.

Any takers?

That indeed is a distinctly possible scenario........and a scary one, not so much the property price fall, as I think they need a bit of a hair cut from current levels, but the thought of a deep recession under Comrade Corbyn just as I'm within a few years of retiring sends shivers down my spine.

I doubt we would see another 20%, perhaps 5% against the dollar and close to parity with the Euro? The damage has already been done.

If we did see a currency then investment from overseas would flow in to take advantage.

Presumably some form of BoE/Treasury plan to deal with a 'hard Brexit'?

Cut rates + liquidity to banking sector?
Cut taxes/deregulate?

We are near the end game for Corbyn/Momentum. Next govt well be centre-left IMO.

[loafer123]

Jiebo said:

I predict a no deal Brexit and another 20% down in the £, following a 15% fall in property prices in London and 20% in the regions. By 2022 we will be in deep recession under labour powers.

Any takers?

I think we will have a free trade Brexit, but that property prices will still fall.

London and the SE falls will be much greater than the rest of the country due to much worse affordability metrics. Indeed the rest of the country will be largely unaffected, in my view.

[vonuber]

V6Alfisti said:

Not too surprising but glad I am not in the minority of people seeing this, any interesting examples?

Yes. Our flat has had a 100k reduction and still no sale. Sw11.

[Rovinghawk]

Helicopter123 said:

Cut taxes/deregulate?

Next govt well be centre-left IMO.

One or the other- you won't get both.