CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 3)
Discussion
croyde said:
isaldiri said:
ant1973 said:
Is it wrong to find this funny. I would like to know what constitutes a minor incident...
BREAKING: 'Major incident' declared as thousands flock to beaches
A major incident has been declared by Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council after thousands of people defied the advice to stay away and descended on its beaches on the hottest day of the year so far.
To be honest, the pictures on the TV per helicopter show a lot of people but they are mostly in their groups and semi distanced from each other. They aren't say having a mass public orgy exchanging bodily fluids.... It's a bit strange why the council felt the need to freak out and declare 'a major incident requiring emergency response'. Well perhaps with toilets closed that has caused a proper emergency given the number of people....that I could understand I suppose. BREAKING: 'Major incident' declared as thousands flock to beaches
A major incident has been declared by Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council after thousands of people defied the advice to stay away and descended on its beaches on the hottest day of the year so far.
Jeez.
The independent are leading the charge to try to terrify us into endless lockdown with articles like this one:
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/coronavirus-b...
This is also an impressive piece of journalism:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/co...
WHO said:
Thirty countries have seen increases in new cumulative cases over the past two weeks
An increase in cumulative cases is not exactly a suprise is it?Meanwhile, the actual data for Europe shows cases and fatalities are currently falling:
https://datagraver.com/corona/#/?regions=eu27%3A%2...
Elysium said:
An increase in cumulative cases is not exactly a suprise is it?
Meanwhile, the actual data for Europe shows cases and fatalities are currently falling:
https://datagraver.com/corona/#/?regions=eu27%3A%2...
Yes, Europe isn't a major issue at the moment (bar possibly Sweden, which has an infection rate six times that of the UK now)Meanwhile, the actual data for Europe shows cases and fatalities are currently falling:
https://datagraver.com/corona/#/?regions=eu27%3A%2...
The countries in the s*** are Brazil, China, Peru, and about half the USA.
Elysium said:
An increase in cumulative cases is not exactly a suprise is it?
Meanwhile, the actual data for Europe shows cases and fatalities are currently falling:
https://datagraver.com/corona/#/?regions=eu27%3A%2...
Tricky to find weekly europe data, searched but didnt find anything. Odd, given how common the story is. Meanwhile, the actual data for Europe shows cases and fatalities are currently falling:
https://datagraver.com/corona/#/?regions=eu27%3A%2...
But looks like there is a very slight risein the 7 day average, on this chart. Just eyeballing it. Not a surge though
dreamcracker said:
Gribs said:
Biker 1 said:
How long do the PH Massive think the face mask thing will last on public transport? I need to get a train from somewhere in Devon to Gatwick mid-August; I'm praying I won't need to be muzzled for several hours...........
You don't need to wear one now. The exceptions are lax enough as written to make it purely personal choice.https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-s...
Enforcement of face coverings on public transport
You are not allowed to get on public transport if you are not wearing a face covering, unless you have a legitimate reason for not wearing one.
Transport staff may tell you not to board or ask you to get off.
If you refuse to wear a face covering, you can receive a fine from the police or Transport for London enforcement officers.
The fixed penalty notice will require you to pay £100 (reduced to £50 if paid within 14 days).
sim72 said:
Elysium said:
An increase in cumulative cases is not exactly a suprise is it?
Meanwhile, the actual data for Europe shows cases and fatalities are currently falling:
https://datagraver.com/corona/#/?regions=eu27%3A%2...
Yes, Europe isn't a major issue at the moment (bar possibly Sweden, which has an infection rate six times that of the UK now)Meanwhile, the actual data for Europe shows cases and fatalities are currently falling:
https://datagraver.com/corona/#/?regions=eu27%3A%2...
The countries in the s*** are Brazil, China, Peru, and about half the USA.
Fatalities per million population is the most important metric if we are comparing different countries and the growth rate in fatalities is key to understanding what is happening with transmission, albeit with a 2-3 week lag.
sambucket said:
Elysium said:
An increase in cumulative cases is not exactly a suprise is it?
Meanwhile, the actual data for Europe shows cases and fatalities are currently falling:
https://datagraver.com/corona/#/?regions=eu27%3A%2...
Tricky to find weekly europe data, searched but didnt find anything. Odd, given how common the story is. Meanwhile, the actual data for Europe shows cases and fatalities are currently falling:
https://datagraver.com/corona/#/?regions=eu27%3A%2...
But looks like there is a very slight risein the 7 day average, on this chart. Just eyeballing it. Not a surge though
sim72 said:
Yes, Europe isn't a major issue at the moment (bar possibly Sweden, which has an infection rate six times that of the UK now)
I don't think your point re Sweden is true. We know comparing number of cases is a pointless exercise. The average number of deaths in Sweden over the last week per 100,000 population looks to be about the same as the UK. Hence the number of infections is also likely to be around the same on a per capita basis.
Elysium said:
As I have said a few times now, I am really not concerned with infection rates. These reflect testing capacity more than actual transmission.
Fatalities per million population is the most important metric if we are comparing different countries and the growth rate in fatalities is key to understanding what is happening with transmission, albeit with a 2-3 week lag.
Yes, of course. If you're only testing people who are presenting at hospital or believe they have symptoms, you're going to have a higher IFR. As soon as you ramp up your testing beyond that, you end up getting a lot of positive tests from asympomatic or mildly symptomatic people, and so your IFR falls. Fatalities per million population is the most important metric if we are comparing different countries and the growth rate in fatalities is key to understanding what is happening with transmission, albeit with a 2-3 week lag.
This is why some of the US states are concerning; they've increased testing, but not in any meaningful manner which means that most of that data is people in the former category. This could start to get a bit nasty in a couple of weeks time (I note that Arizona had 79 today, up from 20 last Wednesday, and which would be the equivalent of 750 in the UK).
EddieSteadyGo said:
I don't think your point re Sweden is true.
We know comparing number of cases is a pointless exercise. The average number of deaths in Sweden over the last week per 100,000 population looks to be about the same as the UK. Hence the number of infections is also likely to be around the same on a per capita basis.
That's not what Sweden's testing says. Their new case rate is 1.03/10000, compared to 0.17 for the UK, yet they are only testing at half the rate. We know comparing number of cases is a pointless exercise. The average number of deaths in Sweden over the last week per 100,000 population looks to be about the same as the UK. Hence the number of infections is also likely to be around the same on a per capita basis.
If their deaths are same per capita as the UK, it means that
(a) Sweden are picking up a lot of positive tests from people with lesser symptoms
(b) The UK is not doing that, but instead mainly testing those presenting at hospital or with symptoms
(c) People getting infected in the UK are more likely to be vulnerable to it
In the USA their care in the community scheme to allow the mentally ill to address political sessions allowed this lady to moan about the cure (masks) is worse than the disease - https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/127591201055...
sim72 said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
I don't think your point re Sweden is true.
We know comparing number of cases is a pointless exercise. The average number of deaths in Sweden over the last week per 100,000 population looks to be about the same as the UK. Hence the number of infections is also likely to be around the same on a per capita basis.
That's not what Sweden's testing says. Their new case rate is 1.03/10000, compared to 0.17 for the UK, yet they are only testing at half the rate. We know comparing number of cases is a pointless exercise. The average number of deaths in Sweden over the last week per 100,000 population looks to be about the same as the UK. Hence the number of infections is also likely to be around the same on a per capita basis.
If their deaths are same per capita as the UK, it means that
(a) Sweden are picking up a lot of positive tests from people with lesser symptoms
(b) The UK is not doing that, but instead mainly testing those presenting at hospital or with symptoms
(c) People getting infected in the UK are more likely to be vulnerable to it
As Imperial College acknowledged right back at the start of this, you track back from deaths as that gives you the best proxy for the actual infection rate.
sambucket said:
Sweden's cases have doubled in the last 20 days ish, so a little early to draw conclusions.
But wouldn't be surprised if Sweden tighten the rules a bit soon. Maybe not lockdown stuff, but other things that have proved useful elsewhere eg masks.
No chance Sweden will tighten their rules - why would they? Their rate of reduction in deaths is following pretty much the same glide path as ours.But wouldn't be surprised if Sweden tighten the rules a bit soon. Maybe not lockdown stuff, but other things that have proved useful elsewhere eg masks.
Drawing conclusions only based on cases when you don't know how their cases measure is changing isn't good reasoning.
EddieSteadyGo said:
No chance Sweden will tighten their rules - why would they? Their rate of reduction in deaths is following pretty much the same glide path as ours.
Drawing conclusions only based on cases when you don't know how their cases measure is changing isn't good reasoning.
Because of growing indications 'cheap' NPIs such as mandatory masks are effective. Why wouldn't they? What's the downside.Drawing conclusions only based on cases when you don't know how their cases measure is changing isn't good reasoning.
It's not just about deaths. Covid is a pain in the ass in many ways. I'm sure they would prefer to have lower cases in circulation.
Less infection controls required in hospitals for one. Upper secondary education is still closed.
Unless you are still banging the HI drum?
sambucket said:
Because of growing indications 'cheap' NPIs such as mandatory masks are effective. Why wouldn't they? What's the downside.
It's not just about deaths. Covid is a pain in the ass in many ways. I'm sure they would prefer to have lower cases in circulation.
Less infection controls required in hospitals for one. Upper secondary is still closed.
Unless you are still banging the HI drum?
Herd immunity isn’t a drum. It’s the only game in town. Anyone who says otherwise is intellectually dishonest.It's not just about deaths. Covid is a pain in the ass in many ways. I'm sure they would prefer to have lower cases in circulation.
Less infection controls required in hospitals for one. Upper secondary is still closed.
Unless you are still banging the HI drum?
Unless there is a vaccine, and that’s very uncertain, herd immunity is the only way back to normal.
It’s infuriating that people play virtue signalling games to deny this simple fact.
sambucket said:
Because of growing indications 'cheap' NPIs such as mandatory masks are effective. Why wouldn't they? What's the downside.
It's not just about deaths. Covid is a pain in the ass in many ways. I'm sure they would prefer to have lower cases in circulation.
Less infection controls required in hospitals for one. Upper secondary is still closed.
Unless you are still banging the HI drum?
Not banging any drum. Just stating they won't be changing course. Tegnell was recently asked about his views on masks... he wasn't complimentary.It's not just about deaths. Covid is a pain in the ass in many ways. I'm sure they would prefer to have lower cases in circulation.
Less infection controls required in hospitals for one. Upper secondary is still closed.
Unless you are still banging the HI drum?
ORD said:
Herd immunity isn’t a drum. It’s the only game in town. Anyone who says otherwise is intellectually dishonest.
Unless there is a vaccine, and that’s very uncertain, herd immunity is the only way back to normal.
It’s infuriating that people play virtue signalling games to deny this simple fact.
Less than 1% of the world believes HI via natural infection is a desirable option. Unless there is a vaccine, and that’s very uncertain, herd immunity is the only way back to normal.
It’s infuriating that people play virtue signalling games to deny this simple fact.
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