How do we think EU negotiations will go?
Discussion
///ajd said:
+1
And Paterson was too, to an extent. But Paterson has also said this:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysi...
Which suggests that his views are rather confused on the matter of the Single Market, in a typical cake and eat it way.
It will be interesting to see how the Canada type offer shapes up, if that is how the EU start the talks.
I do tend to agree with Sway when he says the EU can't cope with losing the services of London on a cliff on the 30 Mar 2019. I suspect there will have to be some sort of transition for these aspects - the worry is when the EU orchestrate a gradual migration, giving business plenty of time to adapt to changing regulation.
They couldn't name a single person, during the referendum campaign, who campaigned to stay in the customs union and single market. And Paterson was too, to an extent. But Paterson has also said this:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysi...
Which suggests that his views are rather confused on the matter of the Single Market, in a typical cake and eat it way.
It will be interesting to see how the Canada type offer shapes up, if that is how the EU start the talks.
I do tend to agree with Sway when he says the EU can't cope with losing the services of London on a cliff on the 30 Mar 2019. I suspect there will have to be some sort of transition for these aspects - the worry is when the EU orchestrate a gradual migration, giving business plenty of time to adapt to changing regulation.
Patterson is correct. It is continuity remain that conflates membership with 'access'.
Sway said:
digimeistter said:
Have i become the but of some joke? please explain, because that's the way I interpreted it? 
Not in the slightest chap.Gooner1 quoted your post which quoted mine, and thanked jsf (who also posts eurozone problem details).
So I gave him a little ribbing.
, I thought the remainiacs had gone quiet?Edited by anonymous-user on Friday 17th November 20:20
///ajd said:
I do tend to agree with Sway when he says the EU can't cope with losing the services of London on a cliff on the 30 Mar 2019. I suspect there will have to be some sort of transition for these aspects - the worry is when the EU orchestrate a gradual migration, giving business plenty of time to adapt to changing regulation.
I do understand this fear, yet I cannot see the mechanism. The regs are only going one way - global. MiFID2 is imminent. MiFID3 will go further. So that's routine finance pretty much left to market forces.
Clearing, they could go for the ESMA approach and try to force any decent sized clearing house into the EZ. They could, and claim it is to reduce systemic risk.
Problem is, that approach actually increases systemic risk which the markets won't like. It'll also really p
s off the Americans. So they can try the market forces approach. Except they're talking FS tax, which doesn't help. Plus the infrastructure is really bloody expensive or reluctant to move. So they've not really got much chance there either.
There may be some ebbs and flows - there always is. London is still the dominant FS city though, and nothing looks likely to hit it too hard to the benefit of others. Certainly not Frankfurt or Paris.
Edited by Sway on Friday 17th November 20:44
Sway said:
There may be some ebbs and flows - there always is. London is still the dominant FS city though, and nothing looks likely to hit it too hard to the benefit of others. Certainly not Frankfurt or Paris.
Frankfurt and Paris have been trying to steal FS from London for as long as I've been around, and yet... There is a momentum to the City of London that just cannot be replicated, or legislated for. In 50 years time that might have changed, but not in the sort of timescales that would suit the EU.Whilst a few (far fewer than some claimed) have moved desks around a little since the Referendum, any attempt to force a wholesale change would be vigorously fought.
Breadvan72 said:
Not this bks again. Look at the video below, Andrew Neil rips the guy from Open Britain to shreds over that video or a variant of it.https://youtu.be/UHzmCHcM7cA
Hayek said:
Breadvan72 said:
Not this bks again. Look at the video below, Andrew Neil rips the guy from Open Britain to shreds over that video or a variant of it.https://youtu.be/UHzmCHcM7cA
Tuna said:
Sway said:
There may be some ebbs and flows - there always is. London is still the dominant FS city though, and nothing looks likely to hit it too hard to the benefit of others. Certainly not Frankfurt or Paris.
Frankfurt and Paris have been trying to steal FS from London for as long as I've been around, and yet... There is a momentum to the City of London that just cannot be replicated, or legislated for. In 50 years time that might have changed, but not in the sort of timescales that would suit the EU.Whilst a few (far fewer than some claimed) have moved desks around a little since the Referendum, any attempt to force a wholesale change would be vigorously fought.
That's the thing both sides are essentially pointing bazookas at their own heads and daring each other to pull the trigger. I'm not sure the EU has thought through the implications of a cliff edge. It feels confident that the UK gov will comprehend the risks in time but I wonder if the likes of Draghi will stay schtum if things continue in this direction. There is arguably an systemic risk come 2019 which would bring the whole EZ edifice crashing down.
PurpleMoonlight said:
A stupid bint on Sky news at the moment claiming the EU needs our £350M pw and that's why they are out to punish us.
Oh so the loss of our contribution to the EU circus wouldn't affect them ?? sometimes you don't help your cause do you???
Anyway why are you watching Sky news the BBC ,C4 or CNN would be more up your street
Edited by powerstroke on Saturday 18th November 07:51
BlackLabel said:
Remain voters like Campbell are actually encouraging leaders of other EU nations to give us a st deal post Brexit. To quote one of the finest thinkers and eminent statesman of our time: Sad!
Well Leo is the Irish PM so he is arguably saying "make them fix the Irish border issue in a satisfactory way" t deal post Brexit. To quote one of the finest thinkers and eminent statesman of our time: Sad!Which is not unreasonable. We all want a good Irish border solution, don't we?
///ajd said:
Well Leo is the Irish PM so he is arguably saying "make them fix the Irish border issue in a satisfactory way"
Which is not unreasonable. We all want a good Irish border solution, don't we?
How are you supposed to negotiate the Irish border when you don't know the nature of our future relationship with the EU yet?, or even started negotiating it. .Which is not unreasonable. We all want a good Irish border solution, don't we?
I couldnt really give much of a damn about the Irish border if Im completely honest.
To be perfectly clear I would have expected the citizen rights and Irish border issues to be 2 areas bloody simple to clarify for everyones benefit within about 10mins of talks starting if folks actually wanted to find a solution.
That they haven't I find speaks volumes for all concerned. Of either incompetence or ingrained muppetry.
To be perfectly clear I would have expected the citizen rights and Irish border issues to be 2 areas bloody simple to clarify for everyones benefit within about 10mins of talks starting if folks actually wanted to find a solution.
That they haven't I find speaks volumes for all concerned. Of either incompetence or ingrained muppetry.
JagLover said:
///ajd said:
Well Leo is the Irish PM so he is arguably saying "make them fix the Irish border issue in a satisfactory way"
Which is not unreasonable. We all want a good Irish border solution, don't we?
How are you supposed to negotiate the Irish border when you don't know the nature of our future relationship with the EU yet?, or even started negotiating it. .Which is not unreasonable. We all want a good Irish border solution, don't we?
Perhaps there is a sticking point here that overrides & will influence the issue of trade?
Varadkar is in effect saying the government is doing nowhere near enough on the border question
"The Irish Prime Minister went on to say that so dissatisfied was he with the British government's ideas on the Irish question to date that he wanted nothing short of a full legal guarantee from the British government to ensure that no hard border would take effect."
https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-playing-bre...
I don't think Varadker is in a position to demand this & it's interesting to see what it does on the question of EU unity. He is though in a very difficult position, given that 80% of Irish trade passes through the UK.
"The Irish Prime Minister went on to say that so dissatisfied was he with the British government's ideas on the Irish question to date that he wanted nothing short of a full legal guarantee from the British government to ensure that no hard border would take effect."
https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-playing-bre...
I don't think Varadker is in a position to demand this & it's interesting to see what it does on the question of EU unity. He is though in a very difficult position, given that 80% of Irish trade passes through the UK.
Leo is basically saying "no deal" without cast iron gtee of no border. Trouble is no deal means a border. Hmmm. Awks.
SM and CU is the only practical answer so far. Works for Norway and Turkey respectively - both outside of the EU.
https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-playing-bre...
EDIT - snap Eddie.
SM and CU is the only practical answer so far. Works for Norway and Turkey respectively - both outside of the EU.
https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-playing-bre...
EDIT - snap Eddie.
Eddie Strohacker said:
Varadkar is in effect saying the government is doing nowhere near enough on the border question
"The Irish Prime Minister went on to say that so dissatisfied was he with the British government's ideas on the Irish question to date that he wanted nothing short of a full legal guarantee from the British government to ensure that no hard border would take effect."
https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-playing-bre...
I don't think Varadker is in a position to demand this & it's interesting to see what it does on the question of EU unity. He is though in a very difficult position, given that 80% of Irish trade passes through the UK.
Tough spot all round unless people want to be sensible. "The Irish Prime Minister went on to say that so dissatisfied was he with the British government's ideas on the Irish question to date that he wanted nothing short of a full legal guarantee from the British government to ensure that no hard border would take effect."
https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-playing-bre...
I don't think Varadker is in a position to demand this & it's interesting to see what it does on the question of EU unity. He is though in a very difficult position, given that 80% of Irish trade passes through the UK.
Will the U.K. play hardball and say stuff it?
Are the EU willing to sacrifice another country to save the project?
It sounds like an impossible situation to resolve until they start talking about the nature of the trading relationship though. Let’s see how much longer the EU drag that bit out for.
///ajd said:
Leo is basically saying "no deal" without cast iron gtee of no border. Trouble is no deal means a border. Hmmm. Awks.
SM and CU is the only practical answer so far. Works for Norway and Turkey respectively - both outside of the EU.
Norway seems to manage a pretty open border with Sweden so I think Customs Union could be managed OK. SM is more of a challenge I agree. SM and CU is the only practical answer so far. Works for Norway and Turkey respectively - both outside of the EU.
Whilst I sympathise with RoI to a degree on this delaying moving the talks on is a dangerous game because the one sure thing which will result in a very, very "hard" border is a no deal scenario.
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