Will May Pay or Hope it Fades Away? £55b exit bill...

[///ajd]

sidicks said:

A promise? Or a naive daydream that the EU chiefs wouldn't act in the interests of both the economies of the underlying EU countries as well as protecting the principles of the EU institution...

FTFY

We told you they'd do this.

[sidicks]

///ajd said:

FTFY

We told you they'd do this.

How is making the EU Countries worse off, acting in their own interests? Own interests of the EU executive you mean?!

[PurpleMoonlight]

sidicks said:

How is making the EU Countries worse off, acting in their own interests? Own interests of the EU executive you mean?!

How do you know they are going to be worse off?

[sidicks]

PurpleMoonlight said:

How do you know they are going to be worse off?

You don't think that applying tariffs to EU goods exported to the UK is going to reduce demand?

[TooMany2cvs]

sidicks said:

How is making the EU Countries worse off, acting in their own interests? Own interests of the EU executive you mean?!

How is it making the EU27 worse off?

If British stuff gets more expensive within the EU27, they'll simply buy from within the EU27.
If EU27 stuff gets more expensive within the UK, we'll buy from...? Who, where? You really think - for a start - the average UK car buyer is going to swear off Audis and Mercs and BMWs? Or those "British" Fords and "Vauxhalls"?

[PurpleMoonlight]

sidicks said:

You don't think that applying tariffs to EU goods exported to the UK is going to reduce demand?

Do you know what tariffs the UK is going to apply then?

[sidicks]

TooMany2cvs said:

How is it making the EU27 worse off?
If British stuff gets more expensive within the EU27, they'll simply buy from within the EU27.

Hasn't British stuff got materially cheaper recently?

TooMany2cvs said:

If EU27 stuff gets more expensive within the UK, we'll buy from...? Who, where? You really think - for a start - the average UK car buyer is going to swear off Audis and Mercs and BMWs? Or those "British" Fords and "Vauxhalls"?

If price didn't affect demand, why didn't those manufacturers put up prices previously?

Edited by sidicks on Sunday 3rd December 14:37

[TooMany2cvs]

sidicks said:

TooMany2cvs said:

How is it making the EU27 worse off?
If British stuff gets more expensive within the EU27, they'll simply buy from within the EU27.

Hasn't British stuff got materials cheaper recently?

Well, the exchange rate's tanked, but we've not actually left yet, so there's no tariffs and no extra paperwork costs. Yet.

[sidicks]

TooMany2cvs said:

Well, the exchange rate's tanked, but we've not actually left yet, so there's no tariffs and no extra paperwork costs. Yet.

None of which suggests that the EU won't be worse off if they choose to implement tariffs on EU-UK trade.

[PurpleMoonlight]

TooMany2cvs said:

How is it making the EU27 worse off?

If British stuff gets more expensive within the EU27, they'll simply buy from within the EU27.
If EU27 stuff gets more expensive within the UK, we'll buy from...? Who, where? You really think - for a start - the average UK car buyer is going to swear off Audis and Mercs and BMWs? Or those "British" Fords and "Vauxhalls"?

Indeed.

Brexit could be very beneficial for the EU27. It will be interesting to compare their GDP growth to ours 5 years after Brexit.

[sidicks]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Indeed.

Brexit could be very beneficial for the EU27. It will be interesting to compare their GDP growth to ours 5 years after Brexit.

Really?

c. £10bn less money coming in, less demand from the UK for EU goods, due to higher prices as a result of tariffs and more expensive goods imported from the UK. Sounds very beneficial indeed.

Edited by sidicks on Sunday 3rd December 15:21

[PurpleMoonlight]

sidicks said:

None of which suggests that the EU won't be worse off if they choose to implement tariffs on EU-UK trade.

You have that wrong, the UK imposes tariffs on EU-UK trade. The EU imposes tariffs on UK-EU trade.

[sidicks]

PurpleMoonlight said:

You have that wrong, the UK imposes tariffs on EU-UK trade. The EU imposes tariffs on UK-EU trade.

Er, I have nothing confused. I am simply using "UK-EU" to refer to trade between the two parties, not to indicate the direction of trade.

[PurpleMoonlight]

sidicks said:

Really?

£10-15bn less money coming in, less demand from the UK for EU goods, due to higher prices as a result of tariffs and more expensive goods imported from the UK. Sounds very beneficial indeed.

Given the UK are rolling over on the divorce bill the EU won't have a cashflow issue for several years, by which time they can adjust their spending. as has already been pointed out, where possible the EU27 can easily avoid EU tariffs by purchasing within the single market.

Again, what tariffs are the UK going to impose on EU goods?

Edited by PurpleMoonlight on Sunday 3rd December 14:48

[sidicks]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Given the UK are rolling over on the divorce bill the EU won't have a cashflow issue for several years, but which time they can adjust their spending.

Isn't the 'divorce' bill supposedly for liabilities already accrued, so no help for ongoing support...

PurpleMoonlight said:

as has already been pointed out, where possible the EU27 can easily avoid EU tariffs by purchasing within the single market.

Which is inevitably more expensive than the current situation i.e. making them worse off. this is the bit you're repeatedly overlooking.

PurpleMoonlight said:

Again, what tariffs are the UK going to impose on EU goods?

The ones imposed as part of the UK-EU trade agreement?

[PurpleMoonlight]

sidicks said:

The ones imposed as part of the UK-EU trade agreement?

It would be more honest to admit you don't know.

[///ajd]

sidicks said:

Er, I am using UK-EU to refer to trade between the two parties, not to indicate the direction of trade.

Well once we've left we can set our our tariffs at whatever level we want.
Many keep telling me we'll set tariffs low to get cheaper oranges and the like. We won't impose tariffs on EU stuff will we? Don't we want that stuff to get more expensive do we?

The bigger issue is customs and the impact on supply chains. What is our answer to that again? Does the EU look like agreeing to that? Do they have a vested interest in keeping supply chains including the UK or maybe incentivising them to move within the EU CU. Lets see now, can we work that one out? More work into the EU - good or bad for the EU? These are such toughies!

[sidicks]

PurpleMoonlight said:

It would be more honest to admit you don't know.

So you don't think we will be resorting to WTO rules?

[///ajd]

PurpleMoonlight said:

sidicks said:

The ones imposed as part of the UK-EU trade agreement?

It would be more honest to admit you don't know.

It would be more honest, yes. That's why you got the answer you did.

HTH.

More seriously - what is our answer to customs friction? Are we just building lorry parks or what?

[Mothersruin]

My view is that until they come up with a reasonable calculation of the UK share of the EU's assets to be offset against any 'bill', then there's no conversation to have.

It should be pro rata with percentages of payments made or worst scenario, 1/27th of all assets.